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six straight weeks, Bitcoin was losing the battle against gold. That streak has now reversed — and it has held for two weeks running, with Bitcoin up more than 4% against the precious metal this week alone. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stalls Near $75K As Traders Move Coins To Exchanges A Parallel Decline Reshapes The Debate The timing of that rebound is striking, given that both assets are deep in correction territory right now. Bitcoin dropped from a weekly high of $76,000 to below $70,000, a slide of roughly 8.7%. Gold fared no better, shedding 8.5% in the same period, pushing the price down to around $4,616 per ounce — well below the psychologically watched $5,000 mark. Gold has now posted two straight weeks of losses and is on pace for a third, its worst such run since last November. The back-to-back selloffs have reignited a long-running argument in crypto circles: when gold falls, does the money eventually find its way into Bitcoin? Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, says no. He has held that view since at least late January, when gold was still riding high and crypto bulls were counting on a rotation trade. He didn’t buy it then. He still doesn’t. Cowen’s Case, And What It’s Based On Cowen’s reasoning draws on something that already played out inside the crypto market. When Bitcoin ran up in prior cycles, many traders expected capital to eventually shift from BTC into smaller altcoins, sparking what the market calls “altcoin season.” According to Cowen, that rotation never really materialized in any meaningful way. He sees the gold-to-Bitcoin narrative following the same pattern. Back on January 28, as gold was trading near its all-time high of $5,597 — a level it hit on January 29 — Cowen posted publicly that no rotation from metals to crypto should be expected. One day after that post, gold dropped 4% and Bitcoin fell by the same amount, almost to the dollar. That co-movement drew attention at the time. The events of this week have brought the argument back to the surface. Not everyone agrees with him. A section of the market has long argued that precious metals and crypto serve different investor profiles, and that a pullback in one naturally redirects money toward the other. So far this cycle, that has not played out in the data. Related Reading: XRP Still In Danger Zone Without This Key Breakout: Analyst The BTC/Gold Ratio Tells A Different Story What complicates the “no rotation” argument is the BTC/gold ratio itself. Even as both assets fall in dollar terms, Bitcoin has been recovering ground relative to gold after bottoming near 12 ounces of gold per BTC earlier this month. It has since climbed back to around 15 ounces. That figure still sits well below the middle Bollinger Band at 18 and far below the upper band at 26, but the direction has shifted. 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Hyperliquid continues its unstoppable ascend to become the new go‑to venue for 24/7 real word assets (RWA’s) and macro risk, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is doubling down on his prediction that $HYPE, Hyperliquid native token, will surge to $150 by August 2026. Related Reading: Hyperliquid Breaks Crypto Wall? Fiat On-Ramp Lets Anyone Trade With Bank Card HYPE Is Taking Over Pretty impressive that oil contracts are trading $1.5bn a day. $HYPE is taking over. See you at $150. 😘😘😘😘 pic.twitter.com/rD5cdBw0UL — Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 20, 2026 After the essay he published on his Substack on March 9, Hayes predictions are now supported by new evidence: not only are oil perpetual contracts trading $1.5bn a day on the platform, as the trader demonstrated on a post published today on the social media X, but new data from research outlet Coin Bureau also highlights that this all-time high open interest means that the platform is now trading more volume in tokenized commodities than digital assets. Oil, gold and silver now account for more than crypto in Hyperliquid. 🚨BREAKING: Hyperliquid now trades MORE oil, gold, and silver than crypto. Combined HIP-3 open interest surpassed $1.5 BILLION, an all-time high. The platform is processing more volume in tokenized commodities than digital assets. The 24/7 advantage is pulling volume from… pic.twitter.com/pp4Etq0mk9 — Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) March 20, 2026 Hayes’ logic is straightforward: if Hyperliquid establishes itself as the primary venue for around‑the‑clock oil and macro trading, then HYPE effectively becomes the high‑beta way to own that growth in on‑chain volume and fees. In other words, every spike in real activity on the exchange, from war‑driven oil hedging to broader RWA speculation, feeds back into the token’s value capture, turning HYPE into a leveraged expression of Hyperliquid’s market share and revenue trajectory. Related Reading: Crypto Market Regains Its Nerve as ETF Inflows Top $1B, Report Shows The Geopolitical-Driven Intertwinement Of Hype And Oil Oil has been on a war‑driven tear this week, with benchmark Brent crude spiking toward the $120 mark after Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and fresh threats to facilities across the Gulf. The conflict has effectively injected a hefty risk premium into crude, as attacks on export terminals, refineries and shipping lanes around the Strait of Hormuz raise the odds of prolonged supply disruptions. Prices are now hovering near triple‑digit levels after an initial surge of roughly $40–50 percent since the Iran war began, and intraday moves have turned extremely volatile as traders try to handicap whether the fighting escalates into a broader regional energy shock WTI Crude Oil trades for almost $95 on the daily chart. Source: OILUSD on TradingView HYPE has been on a war‑driven tear of its own, grinding higher alongside crude. After a sharp impulse move that pushed the token into the low‑$40s this week, intraday swings have widened and funding has turned choppy, reflecting aggressive positioning on both sides of the book rather than a slow, organic grind. Even so, $HYPE is still trading several hundred percent above its levels from last year, and each fresh spike in oil‑linked perp volume on Hyperliquid is being read as confirmation that the token remains a high‑beta proxy on growing on‑chain demand for geopolitical and commodities exposure. HYPE trades for almost $40 on the daily chart, a slight surge from yesterday. 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shows the Bitcoin perpetual futures market has seen a negative Funding Rate recently, suggesting a bearish sentiment is dominant. Bitcoin Perpetual Futures Traders Are Betting On The Short Direction As highlighted by Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish in an X post, the Bitcoin perpetual futures Funding Rate has been negative recently. The “Funding Rate” here refers to an indicator that measures the amount of periodic fee that traders on the various centralized derivatives exchanges are paying each other right now. Related Reading: Bitcoin Demand Heats Up: Coinbase Premium Green For 25 Straight Days When the value of the metric is positive, it means the long holders are paying a premium to the short ones in order to hold onto their positions. Such a trend implies a bullish sentiment is shared by the majority. On the other hand, the indicator being under the zero mark implies the shorts outweigh the longs and a bearish mentality is the dominant force in the perpetual futures market. Now, here is the chart shared by Beamish that shows the trend in the 3-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Funding Rate over the past few months: As displayed in the above graph, the 3-day MA of the Bitcoin Funding Rate was positive earlier even as the cryptocurrency’s price went through a bearish shift. This suggests that perpetual futures traders were trying to bet on a market reversal back to a bullish trend. In March so far, BTC has found some stability and made some recovery, but from the chart, it’s visible that the market expectations have now flipped, with shorts instead dominating. This also didn’t change during BTC’s recent rally above $75,000. Generally, the side of the market that’s stronger is more vulnerable to mass liquidation events. As such, while the long investors were getting squeezed during the downtrend, it could be the short ones who might be at risk now. In some other news, Glassnode has revealed in its latest weekly report how a supply gap exists between the $72,000 and $82,000 levels on the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD). The URPD tells us about the total amount of supply that was last moved at the various price levels visited by Bitcoin in its history. From the chart, it’s apparent that this indicator shows a chasm near the recent price levels, implying not a lot of supply has cost basis there. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term MVRV Remains In ‘Opportunity’ Zone: Data Generally, supply walls above the spot price act as resistance levels as investors exit at their break-even level fearing price pullbacks. Though, while there isn’t much in the way of this on-chain resistance until $82,000, BTC’s recent attempt to get through the range still ended up in failure. BTC Price Bitcoin has dropped back to the $70,400 level following its latest retrace. 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some market observers suggest that Dogecoin (DOGE) could be primed for a massive price expansion, Elon Musk revived his popular meme after a long time, reigniting enthusiasm among crypto community members. Related Reading: Solana Eyes ‘Clear Path’ Towards $115 Amid SEC Guidance, SOL ETFs Demand The ‘Dogefather’ Is Back? As investors wondered whether Elon Musk had abandoned Dogecoin, the Tesla CEO and X owner put the memecoin front and center of the crypto conversation after reviving his popular “Dogefather” meme. In a Thursday X post, the tech entrepreneur shared an AI-generated video recreating a famous scene from “The Godfather.” The video, created with Grok Imagine, displays Musk in a black tuxedo as Vito Corleone, the iconic character played by Marlon Brando in the Francis Ford Coppola film. While holding a Shiba Inu dog, the breed that inspired the original Dogecoin meme, the AI version of Musk recited a modified version of the legendary scene: “You come to me on the day of my doge’s wedding, and you ask me for my private key. Are you even a friend? You don’t even think to call me the Dogefather.” The post reignited enthusiasm among crypto community members, several interpreting it as a new sign of support for DOGE. The CEO has long advocated for the oldest memecoin on his social media, often calling himself the “Dogefather.” His doge-inspired posts have historically caused significant fluctuations in the cryptocurrency’s price, although their frequency has decreased over time. Notably, he triggered a massive rally in 2021 when he promoted his Saturday Night Live (SNL) appearance using the “Dogefather” meme. Ahead of the show, the memecoin surged to its all-time high (ATH) of $0.73, but quickly crashed by around 40% amid the broadcast after he called it a “hustle” during a sketch. Dogecoin Macro Structure Signals New Highs Despite the online excitement, DOGE’s price didn’t react to Musk’s acknowledgement this time, with the price remaining mostly flat in the following hours before plunging alongside the rest of the crypto market. An X user noted that “Posts like this used to give us money a few years ago.” However, the memecoin fell from the recently reclaimed $0.10 level, falling to a $0.0918 one-week low on Thursday afternoon. A market observer noted that, regardless of short-term price action, DOGE’s macro structure remains intact, which could signal it’s ready for the next major pump. Trader Tardigrade highlighted memecoin’s performance during each of its ATH rallies in previous cycles and emphasized that every rally it “tells the same story—because Doge makes its own rules.” As the chart above shows, following its previous peak, Dogecoin has moved within a multi-year range, reaching its market bottom before bouncing. During the last stage of its recovery, the memecoin has formed a falling wedge pattern, which has led to a significant price expansion to new highs after breaking out of this crucial formation. Related Reading: BNB Chain Momentum Grows As Total RWA Value Hits $3B Now, DOGE has “just completed the final falling wedge inside the yellow circle, and it looks primed for the next pump into the next circle,” the analyst pointed out. He also stated that the cryptocurrency’s setup shows that the price is in a “prime accumulation window,” concluding that “Doge at $2 is inevitable.” As of this writing, Dogeocin trades at $0.092, a 2.5% decline in the daily timeframe. 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price zone that held as a floor throughout all of 2025 is now blocking XRP from recovering. The $1.80 level — once a reliable support — flipped to resistance in January 2026, and the token has not come close to reclaiming it since. Until it does, one analyst says XRP remains “in deep trouble.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Stalls Near $75K As Traders Move Coins To Exchanges A Channel Break That Changed Everything For most of last year, XRP traded inside a large parallel channel with a ceiling near $3.45 and a floor around $1.80. The token stayed within those boundaries even as its price started slipping after hitting an all-time high of $3.60 in July 2025. Lower highs and lower lows piled up through the fourth quarter, but $1.80 held. Then January came. XRP closed the month below that level for the first time, and it has not looked back. The $1.80 floor became a ceiling, and every attempt to push higher has run into that wall. If I zoom out, I still see $XRP in deep trouble. It is clearly downtrending with a series of lower lows and lower highs, and above all, it is still below that key level at $1.80. As long as we don’t break this downtrend, we could expect that “no support zone” to be filled. pic.twitter.com/mNuF8O8LWo — Sjuul | AltCryptoGems (@AltCryptoGems) March 18, 2026 Analyst Sjuul of the AltCryptoGems channel laid out the situation in a recent market breakdown. Zooming out to the daily chart, he pointed to the pattern of lower lows and lower highs that has defined XRP’s price action since the July peak — a structure that leaves the broader downtrend fully intact regardless of short-term bounces. A 15% Rally That Still Went Nowhere XRP did manage a stretch of gains between March 9 and 16 — seven up days out of eight, its best run since September 2025. The token climbed 15% during that window, reclaiming $1.50 and closing at $1.54 on March 16. But the rally stalled almost immediately. A push toward $1.60 ran into resistance at $1.6074 earlier this week, and XRP has since pulled back on three consecutive days, now trading around $1.46. The recovery, impressive as it briefly looked, never came anywhere near $1.80. For context, XRP had dropped to $1.27 on February 28 during the initial market reaction to the Israel-Iran conflict before clawing back above $1.50. The March rally was largely a rebound from that low — not a trend reversal. Related Reading: Ripple’s $500M Raise And Institutional Ties Keep XRP Firmly In Place Two Scenarios, One Number Sjuul sees the path forward as straightforward. XRP either reclaims $1.80 and pushes back inside the parallel channel — invalidating the bearish setup — or it doesn’t, and the downside risk grows sharply. The level he flags on the downside is the $1.20 to $1.30 zone. That area offered no resistance during XRP’s explosive November 2024 rally, which is what analysts call a “no support zone” — a price range the market blew through so fast that few buyers established positions there. Since that rally, the zone has acted as a cushion during dips. If $1.80 continues to hold as resistance, Sjuul suggests XRP could fall back toward that range. 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How Bitcoin Could Shield Keys From Quantum Attacks BIP 360, also known as Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), was merged into Bitcoin’s official BIP repository earlier this year but remains a draft proposal within the broader Bitcoin ecosystem.  BTQ’s testnet release delivers the first functional implementation of that proposal, enabling participants to create, fund, sign, and spend P2MR transactions and observe the full lifecycle from mempool acceptance through broadcast and confirmation.  Related Reading: Sen. Lummis Predicts Crypto Market Structure Markup In April, Senate Passage By Year-End The importance of BIP 360 stems from a long‑term cryptographic risk: in a future where quantum computers reach sufficient capability, exposed public keys on-chain—an outcome of Taproot’s key-path spend design—could be vulnerable to attacks leveraging Shor’s algorithm.  Taproot, activated on Bitcoin back in 2021, underpins many advanced features and scaling efforts for the protocol, but its reliance on on-chain public keys creates a potential attack surface in a quantum-enabled world.  P2MR addresses this by committing directly to the Merkle root of a script tree rather than relying on an internal key or tweak, preserving Taproot’s scripting flexibility while removing the key-path mechanism that could expose public keys. Devs Can Now Test Quantum‑Safe BTC Transactions BTQ’s Bitcoin Quantum testnet v0.3.0 implements full P2MR consensus rules, including SegWit version 2 outputs with bc1z (bech32m) address encoding, Merkle root commitment verification, and control block validation.  The release also enables all five Dilithium post‑quantum signature opcodes within the P2MR tapscript context, providing real quantum-resistant signature verification inside the script tree.  To support developer workflows, BTQ included end-to-end command-line wallet tooling and full RPC wallet support so users can perform the complete P2MR transaction flow on testnet. BTQ And CEO’s Warnings Olivier Roussy Newton, BTQ’s CEO and chairman, framed the launch as a practical advance for industry preparedness. “BIP 360 represents the Bitcoin community’s most significant step toward quantum resistance, and we’ve turned it from a proposal into running code,” he said.  The company further said the testnet’s live validation—covering address creation, funding, transaction construction, signing, mempool acceptance, broadcast, and confirmation—gives implementers and auditors the chance to observe how P2MR operates end to end.  It also signaled that BIP 360’s implementation is network-activated across Bitcoin Quantum’s testing environments, ensuring the feature is available to anyone participating in the testnet. Related Reading: XRP Price Projections Soar To $15-$30 On CLARITY Act Prospects And Bank Adoption However, the firm warned that waiting until a quantum-capable adversary emerges would be risky, and urged the industry to move beyond purely theoretical discussion. “The industry can’t afford to treat quantum resistance as a theoretical exercise,” Newton said, adding:  BIP 360 was a landmark proposal, and we’ve turned it into a landmark implementation. Every developer, researcher, and institution that wants to understand how quantum-safe Bitcoin actually works now has a live network to test against. 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started a fresh decline below the $0.0980 zone against the US Dollar. DOGE is now consolidating losses and might face hurdles near $0.0950 and $0.0980. DOGE price started a fresh decline below the $0.0965 level. The price is trading below the $0.0965 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $0.0950 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could extend losses if it stays below $0.0950 and $0.0980. Dogecoin Price At Risk of More Downside Dogecoin price started a fresh decline after it closed below $0.0980, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE declined below the $0.0965 and $0.0950 support levels. The price even traded below $0.0925. A low was formed near $0.0917, and the price is now showing bearish signs. There was a recovery wave above $0.0940, but the price stayed below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.1044 swing high to the $0.0917 low. Dogecoin price is now trading below the $0.0950 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. If there is a recovery wave, immediate resistance on the upside is near the $0.0950 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $0.0950 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair. The first major resistance for the bulls could be near the $0.0980 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.1044 swing high to the $0.0917 low. The next major resistance is near the $0.10 level. A close above the $0.10 resistance might send the price toward the $0.1050 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $0.1080 level. The next major stop for the bulls might be $0.1120. More Losses In DOGE? If DOGE’s price fails to climb above the $0.0950 level, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.0920 level. The next major support is near the $0.0880 level. The main support sits at $0.0850. If there is a downside break below the $0.0850 support, the price could decline further. In the stated case, the price might slide toward the $0.0800 level or even $0.0750 in the near term. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for DOGE/USD is now losing momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for DOGE/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $0.0920 and $0.0880. 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price extended losses and traded below $1.50. The price is now consolidating losses but faces hurdles near $1.4650 and $1.50. XRP price started another decline and traded below the $1.50 zone. The price is now trading below $1.480 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $1.4450 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it stays below $1.50. XRP Price Extends Losses XRP price failed to stay above $1.5350 and extended its decline, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price declined below $1.520 and $1.50 to enter a short-term bearish zone. The price even extended losses below $1.450. A low was formed at $1.4228, and the price is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1.6068 swing high to the $1.4228 low. Recently, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $1.4450 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. The pair is now trading below $1.50 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. If there is a fresh recovery move, the price might face resistance near the $1.4650 level. The first major resistance is near the $1.4920 level. The main resistance could be $1.50. A close above $1.50 could send the price to $1.520. The next hurdle sits at $1.5360 or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1.6068 swing high to the $1.4228 low. A clear move above the $1.5360 resistance might send the price toward the $1.5620 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $1.5750 resistance. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near $1.60. Another Decline? If XRP fails to clear the $1.50 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $1.440 level. The next major support is near the $1.4220 level. If there is a downside break and a close below the $1.4220 level, the price might continue to decline toward $1.4050. The next major support sits near the $1.3880 zone, below which the price could continue lower toward $1.3650. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $1.4400 and $1.4220. 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has slipped into a valuation range that some on-chain analysts associate with major long-term bottoms, after ETH fell below its realized price for the first time in two years. Via X, renowned crypto analyst Ali Martinez argued on Thursday the setup now resembles prior cycle lows. Ethereum Drops Into MVRV Buy Zone In a post on X, the analyst wrote: “Ethereum has entered a generational ‘Buy Zone.’ The MVRV Ratio, which measures the gap between market price and average investor cost basis, has just dropped into the 0.8 – 1.0 range. Historically, this ‘fair value’ reset has been the precursor to massive structural bull rallies.” That framing rests on a familiar on-chain logic. When MVRV falls toward or below 1.0, spot price is converging with, or moving under, the aggregate on-chain cost basis of holders. In practical terms, the market is no longer pricing Ethereum at the rich premium seen during euphoric phases. Instead, it is testing a zone where prior cycles have exhausted sellers and attracted longer-duration buyers. Related Reading: Ethereum Holds Above $2,300 As Open Interest Expansion Reinforces Uptrend Stability Martinez paired that argument with a chart showing previous rebounds from the same region. The historical moves cited from this “Buy Zone” were substantial: roughly 150%, 5,390%, 130%, 280% and 250%. The implication was explicit. “On-chain data suggests Ethereum is approaching a long-term bottom. For those with a 12-24 month horizon, the accumulation window is officially open!” Glassnode posted a similar signal last week, though in more restrained terms. “ETH has dropped below its realized price for the first time in 2 years – signaling that the average investor is now holding an unrealized loss,” the firm wrote on March 11. It added two key metrics alongside the chart: Realized Price at $2,058.04 and MVRV: 0.93 (7% unrealized loss). Related Reading: Bitwise Found What’s Really Driving Ethereum Price, And It’s Not Fundamentals Those numbers sharpen the broader thesis. A realized price of $2,058.04 against a market price of $1,917.86 means Ethereum was trading below the average on-chain acquisition cost tracked by Glassnode’s model. An MVRV of 0.93 suggests the typical holder, in aggregate, is down about 7% on paper. That does not guarantee a bottom, but it does indicate a phase where speculative excess has already been largely unwound. In overheated markets, MVRV expands as price runs well above the network’s realized cost basis, often reflecting crowded profits and rising distribution risk. In contrast, sub-1.0 readings tend to appear when conviction is weak, sentiment is damaged, and marginal sellers have already absorbed a large part of the decline. That is why analysts often treat the zone as strategically important even if price action remains volatile in the short term. At press time, ETH rebounded above realized price again and traded at $2,139. 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price started a sharp decline from the $2,385 zone. ETH is now consolidating above $2,100 and might aim for a recovery wave if it climbs above $2,200. Ethereum started a sharp decline below the $2,320 zone. The price is trading below $2,250 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at $2,160 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it clears the $2,200 zone. Ethereum Price Takes Hit Ethereum price failed to stay above $2,320 and started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin. ETH price declined below $2,250 and $2,200 to enter a short-term bearish zone. There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at $2,160 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. The pair even spiked below $2,120. A low was formed at $2,100, and the price is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $2,385 swing high to the $2,100 low. Ethereum price is now trading below $2,200 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. If the bulls remain in action above $2,100, the price could attempt another increase. Immediate resistance is seen near the $2,165 level. The first key resistance is near the $2,200 level and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. The next major resistance is near the $2,240 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $2,385 swing high to the $2,100 low. A clear move above the $2,240 resistance might send the price toward the $2,275 resistance. An upside break above the $2,275 region might call for more gains in the coming days. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $2,320 resistance zone or even $2,385 in the near term. More Losses In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $2,200 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2,120 level. The first major support sits near the $2,100 zone. A clear move below the $2,100 support might push the price toward the $2,060 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $2,020 region. The main support could be $2,000. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone. 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is showing signs of weakness after a bearish shift in momentum, with sellers gaining the upper hand in the short term. However, the $9.55 level remains a critical pivot, and a successful flip above this resistance could quickly turn the tide back in favor of the bulls and open the door for a stronger recovery. Bearish Daily Close Signals Rising Selling Pressure The most recent daily candle for both Chainlink and LINKBTC has closed with a bearish bias, signaling a period of short-term exhaustion. According to technical insights from CryptoWzrd, this downward pressure suggests that the asset remains in a vulnerable position.  Related Reading: Chainlink Tests Key Resistance While Monthly Compression Hints At Explosion However, the path to recovery for Chainlink is heavily dependent on the trajectory of Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D). A retracement in BTC.D would likely provide the necessary momentum for altcoins, specifically the LINKBTC pair, to pivot to a more bullish stance. This shift in capital flow is essential for LINK to challenge its immediate overhead resistance. From a structural perspective, the $9.50 level remains the critical hurdle for a sustained trend reversal. A successful breach above this resistance would likely ignite an impulsive rally, opening the door for a move toward the $12.00 psychological threshold, with potential for further extension if buy-side volume remains consistent. Given the current volatility and the proximity to key pivot points, the immediate focus remains on lower-timeframe developments. Thus, the analyst will be closely monitoring the intraday chart by tracking the interaction between price action and micro-support levels to capitalize on early signs of momentum before the broader breakout occurs. Chainlink Intraday Structure Shows Heightened Volatility CryptoWzrd highlighted that the intraday structure remains bearish and highly volatile, indicating that the price could extend its downside move from the current region before any meaningful recovery takes shape. The lack of clear bullish momentum in the short term suggests that sellers still have the upper hand, making the current environment more reactive than directional. Related Reading: Chainlink Bullish Path – This Zone Will Decide The Next Big Move A continued decline could help price reach a more attractive demand zone, where a bullish reversal may develop, offering a potential long opportunity. However, confirmation will be key, as any upside attempt without strong support could quickly fade. If price pushes back up to retest the $9.55 resistance and shows signs of weakness or rejection, it would present a favorable setup for short positions. Broader market conditions are also expected to drive price action, with both geopolitical developments and Bitcoin’s movement playing a significant role in shaping sentiment. Any sudden shifts in these factors could accelerate volatility, so traders remain cautious and flexible while closely monitoring key levels. 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potential impact of Ripple securing a full banking license is gaining significant traction after Teucrium Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Sal Gilbertie discussed the crypto company’s massive holdings and the XRP price. Analysts are now weighing what it could mean if the XRP price climbs to $3 on the back of Ripple’s potential transformation from a crypto-focused firm into a top licensed bank.  The XRP Price If Ripple Becomes A Top Bank In a recent X post, a crypto market commentator announced that Ripple could become a top-20 bank globally by market capitalization if it secures a full banking license. She published a video interview featuring Teucrium CEO Paul Barron and the host of the Paul Barron Network.   Related Reading: Inside Ripple’s Buying And Selling Cycle — And Its Impact On XRP During the interview, Gilbertie laid out a scenario in which Ripple could become one of the largest banks in the world by simply maintaining its existing XRP holdings. He emphasized that if the crypto company obtains a full banking license, its 40 million XRP held in escrow could dramatically increase its balance sheet value and elevate its market position. By retaining the tokens, Ripple could automatically leverage them as a strategic asset in a regulated banking environment.  Gilbertie also highlighted that if the crypto company becomes a licensed bank, it could propel the XRP price to $3, and from there, Ripple could be ranked among the top 20 banks globally by capitalization. The interview also explored the potential scaling if XRP reaches “multiples of $3.” The Teucrium CEO emphasized that Ripple’s valuation would expand in proportion to the cryptocurrency’s price, potentially propelling it to the top as the world’s leading bank.   The interview also addressed on-chain operations and traditional financial infrastructures such as ETFs. When Barron asked whether leveraged ETFs could ever be on-chain, Sal confidently said yes, noting that all financial instruments will eventually operate on-chain. His response suggests a future in which traditional finance could be fully integrated with digital assets and blockchain technology. Update On Ripple’s Banking License Status Ripple has continued to progress through regulatory pathways that would allow it to operate with bank-like authority in the US. The crypto company previously received conditional preliminary approval from the United States Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) for a national trust bank charter. Related Reading: Inside Ripple’s Buying And Selling Cycle — And Its Impact On XRP This approval places Ripple alongside a handful of other crypto firms that have also taken steps toward becoming regulated banks under US law. While full approval has not yet been granted, Ripple continues to develop its payment rails through acquisitions, partnerships, and share buybacks.  At the same time, XRP, the primary token supported by Ripple, is currently trading at $1.43 after rallying 14% this week to $1.6. Although it has given up most of its gains, analysts still maintain a bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency. 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fear gauge plunged back into “Extreme Fear” on Wednesday — the same day traders flooded social media with bullish calls following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady. Related Reading: Ripple’s $500M Raise And Institutional Ties Keep XRP Firmly In Place Sentiment Shoots Up Despite Grim Market Signals The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a widely tracked measure of overall market mood, had briefly climbed into plain “Fear” territory the day before, only to reverse course hours later. Yet traders appeared unfazed. According to sentiment platform Santiment, bullish chatter on social media spiked hard after the Fed announced it would keep rates unchanged at 3.5–3.75%. The platform’s social media discussion score shot from roughly nine to 71 within hours of the announcement. Bitcoin itself told a different story. It was trading at around $70,150 at the time of the Fed’s announcement, down more than 4% in the prior 24 hours. 🇺🇸 Today’s FOMC meeting has resulted in the expected outcome of interest rates holding steady at 3.50-3.75%. There is an expectation that there will be one further cut sometime in 2026, and one in 2027. 📈 For now, traders are expecting a bullish relief rally in spite of no… pic.twitter.com/oBqLTcv3Ni — Santiment (@santimentfeed) March 18, 2026 Traders See Rate Hold As A Window For Gains Santiment attributed the surge in positive sentiment to a simple shift in trader thinking. The bearish price action tied to the absence of rate cuts had already played out a day earlier, the platform said, leaving room for traders to reframe the unchanged rate decision as a net positive. Holding rates steady, the logic goes, at least keeps the door open for cuts down the road. Fed policy has long shaped how crypto market participants read the broader economic environment. Rate cuts, in particular, are seen as fuel for risk assets like Bitcoin. Reports indicate traders had been watching the Fed’s moves closely throughout 2025 as a potential trigger for a bull run that never fully materialized. The S&P 500 has shed 3.70% over the past 30 days, according to Google Finance data, adding pressure to an already skittish crypto market. Analysts Warn A False Rally Could Be Taking Shape Not everyone is buying the optimism. Onchain analysts warned that what looks like an uptrend could be a bull trap — a false signal that draws buyers in before prices reverse lower. Related Reading: XRP Moves Into ‘Scarce Zone’ As Exchange Supply Dries Up Some market observers expect Bitcoin and the broader market to stage a sharp rally once equities find a floor. Others made a similar call earlier this week, saying on X that a “massive rally” is coming in the months ahead. The divide among analysts reflects how unsettled conditions remain. Social media buzz has spiked, but the fear index says something else entirely. Whether the rally traders are counting on shows up — or fades before it starts — remains an open question. 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shows the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has been positive for the past 25 days, a sign that could point toward returning demand from American institutional traders. Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Gap Has Been Climbing Recently In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap. This indicator measures the difference between the BTC price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and that on Binance (USDT pair). When the value of this metric is above zero, it means the cryptocurrency is going for a higher price on Coinbase than on Binance. Such a trend implies the users of the former may be applying a higher amount of buying pressure (or a lower amount of selling pressure) as compared to that of the latter. On the other hand, the indicator being underwater suggests the Binance traders may be the ones participating in a higher amount of accumulation as they have pushed BTC to a higher rate relative to Coinbase. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 30-hour moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the 30-hour MA of the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap fell deep into the negative zone during the asset’s decline from its January high, suggesting selling on Coinbase may have been the driver behind the price drop. Coinbase users affecting the asset’s trajectory isn’t anything new for the market. In fact, since the start of 2024, there has tended to be some correlation between the Coinbase Premium Gap and BTC’s spot price. This may be because of the fact that the exchange is the main destination of institutional investors based in the United States. Even the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) use the platform as their custodian. From the chart, it’s visible that while the metric was inside the red zone earlier in the year, a shift started to occur toward the end of February, with the indicator’s 30-hour MA value flipping into the positive region. Since then, it has steadily been going up inside the zone, indicating the cryptocurrency’s price on Coinbase has risen relative to the Binance market. “The Coinbase Premium Gap just logged 25 consecutive days in positive territory, the longest streak since October 2025,” noted the analyst. Bitcoin has shown some recovery alongside these green values, a potential sign that American institutional entities may once again be playing a role in the market. BTC Price Bitcoin surged above $75,000 earlier in the week, but the coin has since gone through a retrace as its price is now floating around $70,300. 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is entering a pivotal moment in its evolution as growing regulatory clarity is reshaping its position within the global financial system. The recent developments suggest that XRP is increasingly being viewed through the lens of a commodity rather than a security. This distinction could significantly impact how XRP is traded, adopted, and integrated into institutional finance. How The Regulatory Clarity Signals A Turning Point For XRP XRP has been officially designated a digital commodity by the SEC and CFTC, which is a game-changing regulatory victory for crypto. Crypto commentator Pumpius has revealed on X that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have released a joint interpretive guidance clarifying how federal securities laws apply to digital assets. Related Reading: XRP Moves Into ‘Scarce Zone’ As Exchange Supply Dries Up In this framework, XRP is cited among examples of digital commodities. Meanwhile, these are assets whose value comes mainly from the programmatic utility of a functional, decentralized system combined with market-driven supply and demand, rather than from expectations of profit through the effort of others. This means other assets do not meet the Howey Test for securities. Pumpius explains that this distinction is significant because it will resolve the long-standing uncertainty for XRP after years of legal questions. With this classification, the guidance implies that oversight of assets in spot and secondary markets would shift primarily toward the CFTC. This development signals a broader stance that many major non-stablecoin cryptocurrencies may not qualify as securities. Furthermore, Pumpius emphasized that this move reflects a growing effort by the SEC and CFTC regulators to coordinate frameworks and reduce overlap. Thus, this is a formal Commission-level interpretation, not just staff guidance, and it brings significant legal clarity for developers, exchanges, and investors. Why XRP Adoption Trends Continue To Build Momentum According to Evernorthxrp, the largest public XRP treasury company, investors may want to look beyond short-term macro reactions and focus on what’s happening under the hood of XRP before responding to the latest Federal Reserve decision. The data show a rapidly strengthening network that XRP has now surpassed 7.7 million non-empty wallets for the first time in its 13-year history. Meanwhile, active addresses have climbed to a five-week high of 46,767 on March 16. Related Reading: XRP Ledger Transactions Triple In One Year – What’s Going On? At the same time, the tokenized commodities on XRP have surged from $111 million to $1.14 billion in 2026, giving the altcoin a notable share of over 15% of the global tokenized commodities market. Network usage is also accelerating, and XRP daily transactions have increased to nearly 3 million over the past week, with automated market maker (AMM) pools expanding to around 27,000. Evernorthxrp’s key takeaway is that these fundamentals remain unchanged regardless of whether interest rates sit at 3.5% or 3.75%. 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analyst CrypFlow has revealed that the signal that started the last 2 altcoin seasons has returned. The analyst pointed to bullish indicators of the ‘Others’ chart against Bitcoin, which signal that capital may be flowing to lower-capped tokens.  Signal Points To Another Altcoin Season as Capital Flows From Bitcoin In an X post, CrypFlow stated that the signal that started the last two altcoin seasons is forming again. He explained that every major altcoin expansion has started the same way, with the others/Bitcoin chart breaking out of a falling wedge, and that then the Squeeze Momentum turns green.  Related Reading: Expert Says There Will Be No Altcoin Season In 2026, Here’s Why The analyst remarked that when these two indicators align, altcoins start to massively outperform Bitcoin, as seen during the 2017 and 2021 altcoin seasons. However, he noted that this cycle was different as the Squeeze Momentum stayed red for years after the 2021 bull cycle peak.  CrypFlow noted that this meant a prolonged Bitcoin dominance, with no real altcoin season happening since the last one in 2021. That could change soon, though, as the others/BTC chart has broken out of another multi-year falling wedge and momentum is rising again. The analyst added that if the Squeeze Momentum flips green, the same conditions that triggered previous altcoin seasons could return.  CrypFlow also mentioned that when that happens, the biggest moves usually start when nobody expects them. Blockchain Center data shows that it is not yet altcoin season, with the index currently at 49. The altcoin season index needs to hit 75 to be classified as an altcoin season, with 75% of the top 50 coins by market cap outperforming Bitcoin during that period.  Bitcoin continues to lead the way at the moment, with altcoins mirroring its price action. Notably, BTC’s dominance is currently at 58%, a level it has maintained since the start of the year. Crypto analyst Javon Marks also echoed CrypFlow’s sentiment, noting that similarities and macro trends in altcoin setups continue to point to altcoin season being in its early stages.  Another Sign That Points To An Altcoin Season In an X post, crypto analyst CW revealed that Ethereum is forming an 8-year-long convergence and will break through it during this bull market. The analyst declared that this altcoin season will be at the level of the 2017 cycle, not the 2021 cycle. “Investors do not remember how strong the 2017 altcoin season. The 2026 Alt Season will be stronger than 2021,” he added.  Related Reading: The 8-Year Ethereum Convergence That Says An Altcoin Season Stronger Than 2021 Is Coming Amid predictions of an imminent altcoin season, market expert Benjamin Cowen has suggested that the focus should be on Bitcoin. In an X post, he said that over time, everything in the cryptoverse eventually bleeds back to Bitcoin. 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has retraced below the $90 level as volatility resurfaces across the cryptocurrency market, signaling renewed uncertainty after a period of relative stabilization. The move lower reflects growing hesitation among traders, with price action struggling to sustain momentum as broader market conditions remain fragile. Related Reading: XRP Liquidations Accelerate After $1.50 Breakout: Short Squeeze Unfolds Beyond the chart, derivatives data is beginning to reveal a more nuanced shift in market structure. According to a recent CryptoQuant report, the 90-day Futures Taker CVD highlights a transition that has been developing over the past year. Throughout 2024 and early 2025, the market moved from aggressive sell-side dominance into phases where buyers intermittently drove price action higher. However, the current regime in 2026 presents a different dynamic. The data suggests that momentum traders are now distributing into strength, rather than initiating new long positions to support sustained upside. This behavioral shift is often associated with late-cycle conditions, where leverage continues to drive price movements but underlying conviction begins to weaken. For Solana, this creates a more fragile setup. While short-term rallies may still occur, the lack of consistent demand from leveraged participants raises questions about the durability of any upside move in the current environment. Spot Accumulation Emerges as Futures Show Exhaustion The CryptoQuant report highlights a critical shift beneath Solana’s recent price action. Data on spot average order size shows a clear re-emergence of whale participation at lower levels, signaling that larger players are stepping back into the market after months of reduced activity. During the drawdown from late-2025 highs, order sizes declined steadily, reflecting weak conviction. Now, clusters of large orders are forming near the recent base, suggesting that whales are selectively accumulating into weakness rather than chasing rallies. This behavior contrasts sharply with what is happening in derivatives markets. While spot flows indicate early accumulation, futures data points to exhaustion and distribution, with momentum traders reducing exposure instead of building new positions. This divergence is structurally important, as it creates a mixed market environment where different participant groups are acting with opposing strategies. From a market structure perspective, this setup may limit downside in the medium term, as spot accumulation tends to absorb selling pressure. However, the upside remains conditional. For Solana to sustain a meaningful recovery, spot-driven demand must persist and expand, eventually outweighing the influence of leveraged positioning. Meanwhile, improving fundamentals—including stronger developer activity and renewed DeFi traction—continue to support long-term confidence, even as short-term uncertainty persists. Related Reading: Ethereum Holds Above $2,300 As Open Interest Expansion Reinforces Uptrend Stability Solana Tests Key Support After Sharp Drawdown Solana’s 3-day chart reflects a clear loss of momentum following a lower-high formation, with price now stabilizing just below the $90 level after a sharp correction. The recent move down from the $140–$150 region confirms a continuation of the broader downtrend structure, characterized by declining highs and persistent selling pressure since late 2025. Technically, SOL has broken below its short- and mid-term moving averages, both of which are now sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance. The rejection from these levels during recent attempts to recover suggests that buyers are still lacking conviction at higher prices. Related Reading: XRP Liquidity Builds on Binance – What The 2.78B Reserve Spike Means However, the current price zone around $80–$90 is beginning to show signs of demand. The chart reveals a base formation with multiple rejections of lower levels, indicating that sellers are gradually losing control in the short term. Volume spikes during the selloff, followed by reduced selling intensity, further support the idea of exhaustion on the downside. Despite this stabilization, the broader structure remains fragile. For Solana to shift momentum, it must reclaim the $110–$120 region, where prior support has flipped into resistance. Until then, the current move appears to be a relief bounce within a corrective trend, rather than the start of a sustained recovery. 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asset products saw about $1.06 billion in net inflows last week, extending a three-week positive streak despite ongoing geopolitical stress and mixed macro data. Related Reading: Crypto Lobby Loses Key Illinois Race Yet Keeps $221M Firepower For Midterms Inside The Crypto Report New on-chain data from Banana Gun show about $19,200 in bot fees over the week of March 9–15, with ETH capturing roughly 50.5% and BSC around 36%, while Solana activity cooled sharply. Because Banana Gun is a multi-chain trading bot and DeFi execution layer used by active traders to route orders across Ethereum, Binace Chain, Solana and Base, its on-chain order flow effectively mirrors the ETF-driven rotation back into majors and “quality” chains whenever uncertainty spikes. After prior outflow periods and coincides with bitcoin holding up better than equities and gold during recent turbulence, bitcoin captured roughly 75% of those net inflows (around $793 million) as investors treated it as a relative safe haven, while Ethereum and Solana also logged smaller but positive flows. Weekly crypto asset flows. Source: Banana Gun Ethereum reclaimed about 50% dominance in one major on-chain trading venue’s fee mix, reflecting a clear rotation back into majors as speculative alt activity cooled. This rotation mirrors broader market flows, where BTC and ETH are again the primary liquidity magnets. Ethereum has seen meaningful inflows (around $315 million), helped by new staking-focused ETF products that are pulling flows closer to neutral year-to-date. Three straight weeks of inflows totaling roughly $2.2 billion signal renewed commitment from larger holders and ETF-driven capital, even as spot prices remain volatile. Retail Inflow In Comparison On the exchange side, on‑chain analytics from CryptoQuant show that retail inflows to Binance hit roughly $131.8 million in a single hour on March 11, the highest spike since January 2026. These sharp, clustered inflows from smaller wallets typically reflect funds being moved onto the exchange for active trading, often around key price inflection points. Binance Retail to Exchange Flow. Source: CryptoQuant While institutions keep buying exposure through ETFs, the $131.8 million retail inflow cluster into BSC underlines that shorter‑term traders are also stepping back in, either to chase momentum or lock in profits. Every notable retail inflow cluster in Q1 has appeared around sharp BTC moves, framing this as a classic liquidity and volatility signal rather than random noise. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stuck At $74K As US Fed Sets the Stage For Explosive Move Main Takeaway For Traders Taken together, ETF inflows, retail capital rushing into Binance, and on‑chain execution flows through tools such as Banana Gun all point to the same pattern: liquidity rotating back into BTC and ETH as traders position around volatility, not away from it. The fact that retail is still willing to send over $130 million to a single exchange in an hour, at the same time as institutional ETF flows remain firmly positive, suggests that crypto is entering a new phase of risk‑taking rather than a late‑cycle exhaustion spike. The signal mix is clear: persistent ETF inflows, ETH regaining on‑chain execution dominance, and aggressive retail inflow clusters to BSC are creating pockets of high liquidity where advanced routing tools and execution bots such as Banana Gun can help capture short‑term moves while majors remain the core of the trade. ETH’s trades around $2k on the daily chart. 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Technologies CIO Will McEvoy is making a blunt case for Zcash: the market is undervaluing ZEC because it still has no coherent way to price privacy. In a thread published Tuesday, McEvoy argued that the discount is especially striking as AI-driven surveillance expands and demand for financial confidentiality becomes easier to justify. McEvoy’s core claim is simple. “Zcash is the most mispriced asset in crypto because privacy is the most mispriced asset in society,” he wrote. “The market has no real framework for valuing privacy so it gets ignored. The upside is asymmetric nonetheless.” Why Zcash Could Be ‘Mispriced’ He built that argument around relative size. At the time of his post, McEvoy put ZEC at $263 with a $4.4 billion market capitalization. Against that, he listed Bitcoin at $1.45 trillion, gold at $34.8 trillion, offshore wealth at $11.3 trillion, stablecoins at $312 billion, and Monero at $6.8 billion. The point was less about direct comparability than scale: by McEvoy’s framing, Zcash remains “just a rounding error” in every market it could plausibly intersect. Related Reading: Zcash Is The Last Possible 1000x In Crypto, Venture Capitalist Says That thesis runs through each benchmark. Relative to Bitcoin, McEvoy argued Zcash is still tiny enough that even a modest re-rating would imply a large move. He wrote that if ZEC reached 0.5% of Bitcoin’s value, it would imply a price of $446, or about 1.7 times higher. At 1%, the implied price rises to $891; at 2%, $1,782; and at 5%, $4,456. His summary line was as compressed as the valuation case itself: “Zcash is encrypted Bitcoin.” The offshore wealth comparison is more pointed. McEvoy described privacy not as a niche preference, but as something people have historically paid for at scale. “There is $11.3 trillion in offshore wealth,” he wrote. “People pay a premium for privacy. They always have. They always will.” From there, he argued that if Zcash captured 0.1% of that market, the implied price would be $680. At 0.5%, it would be $3,402, and at 1%, $6,804. “Zcash is a Swiss bank account in your pocket,” he added. His gold comparison extends the same logic into a more traditional store-of-value frame. “Gold is private. You can hold it. No one knows how much you have,” McEvoy wrote. “Zcash has the same properties but it’s digital, portable, and programmable.” On that basis, he modeled ZEC at $1,048 if it reached 0.05% of gold’s value, $2,095 at 0.1%, and $10,477 at 0.5%. Related Reading: Zcash Surges Post-SEC Probe: Is a Fresh Yearly High on the Horizon? McEvoy also positioned Zcash as a response to the visibility built into much of crypto’s existing payment infrastructure. “Stablecoin transactions are tracked. Wallets are surveilled,” he wrote, before laying out price scenarios based on ZEC reaching 5%, 10%, or 25% of the stablecoin market. Those levels implied prices of $939, $1,877, and $4,692, respectively. He also compared Zcash to Monero. McEvoy argued Zcash offers “stronger cryptography, optional transparency for compliance, and better scalability,” then laid out a simple relative-value table: parity with Monero would imply $410 for ZEC, double Monero’s value would imply $819, and five times Monero’s value would imply $2,047. “The privacy coin throne is not yet claimed,” he wrote. His closing point tied the whole thesis to a broader technological shift. “Artificial intelligence is the attack. Zcash is the defense,” McEvoy said. “AI decodes all the data. Zcash encrypts all the data. AI is the surveillance state. Zcash is the sovereign individual. As AI advances, privacy becomes more valuable, not less.” At press time, ZEC traded at $244.77. 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could be vulnerable to another sharp leg lower if a developing wedge pattern breaks down, according to market technician Aksel Kibar, whose latest chart work points to a possible move toward $52,500. The warning matters because Kibar is not framing this as a macro hot take or a sentiment call, but as a pure technical risk signal built around the same structure he flagged before Bitcoin’s earlier selloff. In one of his latest posts on X, Kibar wrote: “See my analysis at the time of the previous bearish wedge pattern. A similar pattern might be developing. Not a prediction. Breakdown of the lower boundary will be the signal for a possible move towards 52.5K.” That caveat is central to the setup. He is not saying Bitcoin must trade there. He is saying a confirmed loss of structure (currently around $66,000) would open that path on the chart. History Repeating For Bitcoin? Kibar paired that with a broader point about trade management rather than directional conviction. “If you got in with a chart signal, you should get out with the chart signal,” he wrote. In a follow-up, he added: “How can charting be used as a risk management tool? By moving to the sidelines when the time is not right, protects capital, frees it for other opportunities.” Read together, the message is less about calling a dramatic collapse than about respecting invalidation when a technical setup fails. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Entered A Rare Zone Against Gold, Fidelity Says The backdrop is a call Kibar made on Jan. 19, when Bitcoin was consolidating beneath what he treats as its long-term trend filter, the 365-day EMA. At the time, with price trading inside a rising wedge and getting rejected near the upper boundary around $97,000, he wrote: “The consolidation below the long-term average. With cryptocurrencies I’m taking the 365 day EMA. With equities I take 200 day EMA as my year-long average trend filter. So far BTCUSD respected the year-long average. This is part of the chop and search for a base. The pattern can become a rising wedge, usually bearish in an attempt to test 73.7K-76.5K support area.” That support zone eventually came under pressure, and the chart he reposted now shows a deeper washout toward the $60,000 area before the latest rebound began tracing what he says may be a similar wedge. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term MVRV Remains In ‘Opportunity’ Zone: Data Notably, Kibar is one of the most respected technical analysts on X. He is a Chartered Market Technician and founder of Tech Charts LLC, and before launching his own research firm he worked as a senior technical analyst and fund manager at National Bank of Abu Dhabi, as well as a portfolio manager at Abu Dhabi Investment Company. The CMT Association also lists him as a presenter and contributor. For Bitcoin traders, the immediate implication is straightforward. When Kibar speaks, the market tends to pay attention. As long as price remains inside the wedge or breaks out, bulls have little to worry about. But a break below $66,000 could open the door to another drawdown toward $52,000. At press time, BTC traded at $70,259. 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Bitcoin price broke above $75,000 earlier this week, marking the highest level for the pioneer cryptocurrency for over one month. But while this move has led to an improvement in the overall investor sentiment, it could end up being a trap. This is called out by analyst TheOnePct, who explained that the correct move could end up being part of a larger Flat correction that began years ago. In this case, it would only be a matter of time before the Bitcoin price falls again. Bitcoin Break Confirms Structural Weakness The analysis follows the Bitcoin price movement since 2021, expressing that this current move is still part of the correction that began almost five years ago after the 2021 bull market. Instead of marking the bottom for BTC, the crypto analyst explains that it is likely a B-wave of the Flat correction. Related Reading: Can Avalanche’s AVAX Rise From The Dead? The Zone That Could Change Everything The current price movements, the analyst suggests, are actually ‘structurally consistent’ with this Flat correction. One of the things that seems to correlate is the fact that the Bitcoin price has been seeing very aggressive declines. It coincides with the C-wave of a flat correction, which spells even more bad luck for the cryptocurrency. Another thing the analyst calls out is that the current C-wave looks to be terminal in nature. This simply means that the current trend is inherently corrective. As a result, it is likely that the price will reverse and fall further even after the correction. What To Expect Interpreting the decline of the Bitcoin price, the analyst says the trend suggests that Wave 1 has actually not bottomed. If that is the case, then the recovery into the $70,000s may only be temporary in nature. Not only this, but that the digital asset is likely forming a Diametric pattern. Related Reading: Shiba Inu’s 1,549% Spike: Can Bulls Take Control Again And Trigger An Explosive Rally? Going by this, the crypto analyst says that the Bitcoin price is likely moving through Wave F, which could end up being more complex in terms of the sideways movement. Eventually, though, this is expected to end in a decline, leading into Wave G. Wave G is more bearish than the previous wave, and as the price begins to move through, it is expected to fall below $60,000, bottoming somewhere around $55,000. “BTC has already shown clear structural weakness, and that weakness is likely to continue hunting the market for quite some time,” the analyst said. “Because of this, the market may remain in a bearish environment for longer than most expect.” Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com","headline":"Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Is Showing Dangerous Weakness, Here’s Why","tag":"","information":{"proof":{"hash":"d043b77e6dcfa118dbed88017db2e5dc66049bcefd38b6c3078a6555b50870c8","mimeType":"image/png","timestamp":1773906313}},"signed_metadata":"{\n  \"created_at\": 1773905454,\n  \"recorder\": \"Capture\",\n  \"spec_version\": \"2.0.0\"\n}","metadata_cid":"bafkreiafmn4o36x7c5pra2rcdwhrj2gkvuoyfsoxzm3kwtmzpbhpwnduai","signature":[],"signature_provider":"","origin_type":"Defiance 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strong institutional demand and regulatory clarity from US authorities, an analyst has suggested that Solana (SOL) could potentially rally above a crucial psychological barrier for the first time in a month. Related Reading: BNB Chain Momentum Grows As Total RWA Value Hits $3B Clear Skies Ahead For Solana Over the past week, Solana has had a remarkable performance, jumping 22% from March lows and breaking out of its multi-week consolidation range. The cryptocurrency has been hovering between the $77 and $92 levels over the past month and a half, failing to break above the upper zone of this range despite multiple attempts. Following the recent crypto market bounce, the altcoin reached a one-month high of $97 at the start of the week, before dropping to $90 on Wednesday. Amid this performance, analyst Ali Martinez reported that SOL recently flashed a key bullish signal for the first time since January, suggesting a relief rally could be ahead. As he explained, the SuperTrend indicator, which is used to identify the current market trend, has turned bullish on Solana, flipping from Sell to Buy on the daily chart. In addition, the market watcher noted that there’s little resistance until the $100 psychological barrier, signaling a potential breakout to $115. Per the post, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric shows that “a robust demand floor” was established between $85.55 and $82.60, where 76 million SOL tokens were transacted. “This 38-day accumulation phase has effectively exhausted sell-side liquidity. With no significant supply barriers remaining on the horizontal profile, Solana has a clear path toward the $100 psychological level, followed by the $115 liquidity cluster,” he detailed, adding that the “‘ceiling’ is significantly thinner than the current floor.” Martinez emphasized that if Solana holds the 39-day distribution zone that flipped into a structural floor around the $93 area, a bull rally could happen “much faster than people think.” Institutional Demand, Regulatory Clarity Fuel SOL’s Momentum SOL’s anticipated recovery comes as spot Solana Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) record their largest single-day performance in two weeks and their best weekly run since the mid-January market crash. According to SoSoValue data, the category saw $17.81 million in inflows on March 17, its highest single-day net flows since the start of the month, suggesting strong institutional demand. Meanwhile, the SOL-based funds have seen a five-week positive streak despite market volatility, largely fueled by geopolitical tensions. As the report noted, Solana Spot ETFs have cumulative net inflows of $989.3 million amid strong, “just shy of the $1B milestone.” Related Reading: The End Of Ethereum’s Downtrend? Key Indicator Flashes First Bullish Signal Since September Adding to the momentum, US regulators have recently shared long-awaited clarity on how federal securities laws apply to many crypto assets, resolving years of regulatory ambiguity. On Tuesday, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued joint guidance to provide clearer rules for market participants, officially confirming that most crypto assets, including Solana, Cardano, and XRP, are digital commodities rather than securities, joining Bitcoin and Ethereum in this classification. As of this writing, Solana trades at $90, a 6.4% increase in the monthly timeframe. 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data shows the 365-day Bitcoin MVRV Ratio has recently been sitting deep inside the negative zone, implying long-term buyers are underwater. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Suggests 1-Year Holders Still In Pain In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Santiment has talked about how the short-term and long-term Bitcoin returns have been looking from the perspective of the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. This indicator keeps track of the ratio between the Market Cap of BTC and its Realized Cap. Related Reading: Bitcoin STH Profit-Taking Ramps Up As Price Breaks $74,000 The Market Cap here is simply the total value of the Bitcoin circulating supply at the current spot price. This metric can be considered as an estimate of the value that the investors as a whole are carrying in the present. The Realized Cap, in contrast, measures the value that the holders initially put into the cryptocurrency. It does so by summing up the last blockchain transaction price of each token in circulation. As the MVRV Ratio compares the two metrics, its value essentially tells us about the profit-loss status of the network. When the indicator is greater than 1, it means the investors as a whole are sitting on some net unrealized profit. On the other hand, it being under the threshold suggests the dominance of loss in the market. In the context of the current topic, the MVRV Ratio of the entire network isn’t of interest, but rather that of two segments of it: 30-day and 365-day buyers. Below is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the metric separately for the two Bitcoin cohorts. In the graph, the MVRV Ratio is displayed as a percentage, with the 1 level corresponding to the 0% mark. It would appear that the metric was sitting at +7.1% for the 30-day investors at the time that the analytics firm made the post, indicating a profitable status for the recent buyers. Generally, holders become more likely to sell the larger that their profits get, so it’s possible that these short-term traders could be tempted to take their gains of the rally. BTC has seen a notable pullback in the past day and it may be due to profit realization from these investors. While the new buyers have been in gains, the 1-year investors haven’t been so fortunate. As is visible in the chart, the MVRV Ratio of this cohort has been around -22.1% recently, which is inside a region that Santiment defines as pertaining to an “opportunity” zone. Related Reading: Cardano Chop Nearing End? Here’s The Key Resistance To Watch Given this dominance of losses among this cohort, Bitcoin may not be set up badly from a long-term perspective. It only remains to be seen, however, how the asset will develop in the coming months. BTC Price Bitcoin has plummeted to the $71,100 level following its price drop over the past day. 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Wall Street investors poured $500 million into Ripple in 2025 — a figure that reflects just how embedded XRP has become in the company’s financial backbone, and why analysts say Ripple has little reason to walk away from it. Related Reading: Another Bitcoin Buy Coming? Saylor Sparks Speculation With ‘Orange Dots’ Post A newly circulated academic paper, published in Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research, argues that XRP’s role in Ripple’s cross-border payment network makes abandonment not just unlikely, but structurally difficult. The paper was brought to wider attention by XRP community researcher SMQKE. The Case Against Cutting Ties Ripple Payments — formerly known as RippleNet — uses XRP as a bridge asset to move money across borders quickly and cheaply. According to the paper, that dependency runs deep. XRP helps guard against double-spending risks while cutting the delays that plague traditional payment systems. Banks like Bank of America and Santander are among the financial institutions connected to Ripple’s network. That kind of institutional footprint makes any sudden pivot away from XRP a complicated proposition, reports indicate. ‼️ WHY RIPPLE WILL NEVER ABANDON XRP‼️ Read closely.😶‍🌫️ “Because RippleNet DEPENDS much on XRP, the XRP will coexist with Ripple Labs.”✅ “In this way, as long as Ripple Labs is widely used for its cross-board real-time payment business, the XRP market will ALWAYS work as a… pic.twitter.com/9YZvBLoExt — SMQKE (@SMQKEDQG) March 13, 2026 The paper stops short of declaring XRP untouchable. It points to regulatory tightening and rival technologies as real threats that could reshape how Ripple operates in the long run. Still, its central conclusion is that XRP and Ripple are likely to remain tied together for the foreseeable future. XRP’s Broader Ambitions Beyond payments, Ripple has explored positioning XRP as a neutral go-between for central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs. The idea is that XRP could connect different national digital currencies without requiring the parties to rely on traditional financial intermediaries. That ambition signals something important. Ripple isn’t treating XRP as a legacy product to be quietly retired. Based on reports, the company has been actively expanding its use cases rather than winding them down. CEO Brad Garlinghouse has publicly described XRP as the company’s guiding purpose. His exact words, often repeated in the XRP community: “XRP is our north star.” Related Reading: XRP Moves Into ‘Scarce Zone’ As Exchange Supply Dries Up Stablecoin Launch Adds A New Layer Ripple’s rollout of RLUSD, its own stablecoin, has fed speculation that XRP might be getting sidelined. Some observers read the move as a sign that Ripple is hedging its bets with a more stable asset. Ripple executives have pushed back on that reading. They maintain XRP is not being replaced — that RLUSD operates alongside it, not instead of it. The academic paper largely supports that position. It frames XRP as central to both network security and overall system efficiency, not as a technology on its way out. Whether that holds as stablecoins gain ground across the broader payments industry remains an open question. 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Demand for WETH borrowing continues to be driven by leveraged staking strategies, primarily by wrsETH collateral users; additionally, the market has become subject to significant incentives bringing the supply rate to over 3%.\nSupply Distribution\nThe supply distribution of WETH is moderately concentrated, with the top supplier representing approximately 60% of the market. As can be observed below, the majority of positions maintain health factors above 1.5, indicating relatively conservative positioning on the supply side with borrowing primarily concentrated in stablecoins like USDe, USDT and USDT0.\n\nBorrow Distribution\nThe WETH borrow distribution is highly concentrated, with 4 users accounting for the majority of outstanding debt. These users collateralize WETH debt with wrsETH, capitalizing on the yield differential between the restaking yield and borrowing costs. Health factors cluster tightly in the 1.02 to 1.06 range; given the strong correlation between wrsETH and WETH, such positioning presents limited liquidation risk.\n\nLiquidity\nWETH liquidity is primarily allocated within Merchant Moe paired primarily with its derivatives like cmETH, mETH and wrsETH. The cumulative TVL of the mentioned pools is approximately $3 million.\nRecommendation\nGiven the persistent demand to utilize WETH on Mantle, limited liquidation risk, and adequate on-chain liquidity, we recommend increasing both the supply and borrow caps of WETH on the Mantle instance.\nsUSDe (Mantle)\nsUSDe has reached its supply cap of 240 million tokens on the Mantle instance, reflecting the sustained demand observed across multiple prior cap increases. Growth continues to be driven by leveraged looping strategies where users recursively supply sUSDe to borrow USDT0.\nSupply Distribution\nThe supply distribution of sUSDe remains highly concentrated, with the top user accounting for approximately 60% of the market. The asset is used primarily in leveraged looping strategies, where, by recursively collateralizing stablecoin debt with a yield bearing collateral, users increase the net size of positions thereby increasing their exposure to the spread between the underlying yield of sUSDe and borrow costs of USDT0. Health factors for the majority of positions are in the 1.02 to 1.05 range, which, given the high correlation between collateral and debt assets, presents limited liquidation risk.\n\nLiquidity\nsUSDe liquidity remains primarily concentrated in sUSDe/USDe pools on Merchant Moe and Agni Finance, with TVLs of approximately $8.5 and $4 million respectively. While these figures are modest relative to the reserve size, the high correlation between sUSDe and USDT0 substantially constrains the liquidation risk, meaning the available liquidity is sufficient to support a further increase of the supply cap.\nRecommendation\nGiven the persistent demand to deploy sUSDe in leveraged looping strategies, combined with limited liquidation risk and sufficient on-chain liquidity depth, we recommend increasing the supply cap of sUSDe on the Mantle instance.\nCELO (Celo)\nThe CELO market on the Celo instance has experienced minimal organic usage and negligible market demand, with total supply currently standing at approximately $169.58K. Given the lack of meaningful activity and the shrinking size of the asset, we recommend reducing the supply cap of CELO to effectively deprecate the asset on the Celo instance. Additionally, as the Aave V3.7 update will remove the isolation module along with debt ceiling functionality, we will no longer be able to constrain the volume of debt that can be accumulated against the asset. Given the low on-chain liquidity and lack of substantial trading activity associated with CELO, the risk of price manipulation is elevated, which, in the absence of debt ceiling constraints, would materially increase the protocol’s exposure to bad debt. We therefore recommend setting the supply cap to 1 to deprecate the market.\nSpecification\n\n\n\n\nInstance\nAsset\nCurrent Supply Cap\nRecommended Supply Cap\nCurrent Borrow Cap\nRecommended Borrow Cap\n\n\n\n\nMantle\nWETH\n60,000\n80,000\n56,000\n74,000\n\n\nMantle\nsUSDe\n240,000,000\n320,000,000\n-\n-\n\n\nCelo\nCELO\n9,000,000\n1\n-\n-\n\n\n\nNext Steps\nWe will move forward and implement these updates via the Risk Steward process.\nDisclosure\nChaos Labs has not been compensated by any third party for publishing this AGRS recommendation.\nCopyright\nCopyright and related rights waived via CC0.\n      1 post - 1 participant\n      Read full topic","headline":"Chaos Labs Risk Stewards – Change of Supply and Borrow Caps on Aave V3 – 18.03.26","tag":"","information":{"proof":{"hash":"43704267cd52f9e5d8e3ae894dbabced239857fce49fc16b82052e9b4e7c2125","mimeType":"image/png","timestamp":1773883789}},"signed_metadata":"{\n  \"created_at\": 1773883005,\n  \"recorder\": \"Capture\",\n  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key price level is giving Bitcoin trouble — and on-chain data may explain why. Related Reading: XRP Moves Into ‘Scarce Zone’ As Exchange Supply Dries Up Realized Price Puts A Ceiling On The Rally The $75,000 mark is not just a round number for Bitcoin traders. It sits at the lower band of what analysts call the “traders’ on-chain Realized Price” — a metric that tracks the average price at which active market participants last moved their coins. According to CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno, that band has historically acted as a ceiling during bear markets, and it appears to be doing the same thing now. Bitcoin tested the $75,000 level three times on Coinbase in a single 24-hour stretch and was turned back each time. The rally itself has been real. Bitcoin climbed roughly 12% in March, touching a six-week high of around $76,000 on March 17. But momentum has stalled right where analysts warned it might. Large Deposits Flood Into Exchanges What makes the stall more significant is what’s happening behind the scenes. On March 16, hourly Bitcoin inflows to centralized exchanges surged to 6,100 BTC — the highest single-hour reading since February 20. Data shows that large deposits made up over 60% of that total, the biggest share since mid-October 2025. When traders move Bitcoin onto exchanges, it usually means one thing: they’re getting ready to sell. Moreno said that historically, spikes in large exchange deposits have been tied to rising selling pressure. The timing — right as Bitcoin ran into resistance — is hard to ignore. The question now is whether that selling pressure will be enough to push prices back down, or whether buyers will absorb it and push through the $75,000 wall. Fed Decision Adds To Market Uncertainty Broader financial conditions are adding another layer of complexity. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its rate decision Wednesday, and based on CME futures, traders are pricing in a 98.9% chance that rates stay where they are — with just a 1.1% chance of a hike. But holding rates steady may not be the most market-moving part of the announcement. Reports indicate the Federal Reserve could signal that no rate cuts are coming at all in 2026, citing ongoing inflation concerns and the fallout from the US-Iran war. That kind of guidance tends to weigh on risk assets. Related Reading: Another Bitcoin Buy Coming? Saylor Sparks Speculation With ‘Orange Dots’ Post The Harder Wall Still Lies Ahead Even if Bitcoin manages to clear $75,000 with enough conviction to hold, there is another obstacle waiting higher up. The full Realized Price — which reflects the average break-even level for active traders — currently sits near $84,700. That figure acted as resistance in both October and January. Clearing $75,000 would be a start. Getting to $84,700 would be a different challenge entirely. 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formerly MicroStrategy, has crossed the 760,000 Bitcoin threshold with its latest purchase, bringing its total holdings to 761,068 BTC as of March 16, 2026. The market intelligence company continues to purchase BTC, despite broader market downtrends and ongoing volatility. Against this backdrop, AI analysis is now shedding light on how long it could take for Strategy to reach the 1 million BTC milestone, with different models projecting varying timelines.  Grok AI Predicts When Strategy Hits 1 Million BTC Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings have surpassed 761,000 BTC after its record weekly purchase of 22,3337 BTC for approximately $1.57 billion. The company’s aggressive accumulation strategy, led by CEO Michael Saylor, is accelerated by its ambition to grow its Bitcoin treasury as substantially as possible, with some analysts projecting it could reach a million BTC cap by the end of 2026.  Related Reading: Here’s How Much Saylor’s Strategy Makes Every Time Bitcoin Goes Up By $1,000 However, according to projections from Grok, the AI platform created by xAI and SpaceX founder Elon Musk, Strategy could realistically reach the one million BTC milestone as early as September 2026. Grok’s forecast is based on the company’s recent purchase velocity, which has increased significantly over the past few years.  In the three weeks leading up to mid-March, Strategy acquired between 3,015 and 22,337 BTC per week, averaging roughly 14,450 BTC. If the company can maintain this pace, Grok predicts that it could mathematically reach the one million BTC mark by early July this year.  However, maintaining such aggressive weekly acquisitions would require continuous capital raises exceeding $1 billion per week, which Grok notes is unlikely. The AI platform noted that the company currently needs an additional 238,932 BTC from its holdings to reach its official target.   A more sustainable pace, accounting for historical averages of roughly 2,500 BTC per week with the STRC preferred stock funding program, points to a more realistic timeline around September 2026. This projection takes into account market liquidity, sustainable fundraising, dilution concerns, market volatility, and other key factors.  ChatGPT Forecasts Strategy’s 1 Million Bitcoin Timeline ChatGPT AI projects a slightly more conservative scenario based on historical buying trends, capital capacity, and market conditions. According to the AI platform, Strategy would need approximately 5,550 BTC each week to hit 1 million BTC by December 2026, about 50-100% above its recent weekly averages.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Still Bearish And Price Is Headed Below $50,000; Analyst While this goal is ambitious, the AI suggests it could realistically be achieved by 2027. Its analysis indicates that if Strategy ramps up purchases through equity issuance and STRC funding, the 1 million BTC target could be recalibrated to late December 2026.  However, factors such as market liquidity, price volatility, and uneven weekly acquisitions make it more plausible that the goal could slip into early January 2027. The AI platform noted that delays beyond this window are unlikely, given the company’s historically strong commitment to BTC accumulation and its funding resources. 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US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved on Wednesday a significant rule change allowing one of the world’s largest stock exchanges, Nasdaq, to support trading in tokenized securities, a move that could accelerate the integration of blockchain technology into the mainstream financial markets.  Nasdaq Rule Amendments Approved Nasdaq’s modified regulations were approved by the SEC following a seven-month assessment that began in September 2025 and included adjustments to ensure compliance with federal securities laws and investor protection requirements. For context, tokenized securities are blockchain‑based representations of traditional financial instruments—stocks, bonds, or funds—where ownership rights are recorded as digital tokens on a distributed ledger.  Related Reading: Citigroup Lowers 12-Month Bitcoin Price Forecast To $112,000, ETH To $3,175—Here’s The Reason Proponents say tokenization can enable around‑the‑clock trading, speed up settlement, and permit fractional ownership, modernizing elements of market infrastructure that have long relied on legacy systems.  According to the SEC’s filing, Nasdaq’s approved pilot program will operate in coordination with the Depository Trust Company (DTC), providing a regulated pathway for market participants to trade these digital representations of securities. Cross‑Border Rails For Tokenized Securities The SEC’s approval clears the way for several industry initiatives already under development. Earlier this month, Payward — the parent company of crypto exchange Kraken — announced a partnership with Nasdaq to build an equities transformation gateway.  That project pairs Nasdaq’s regulated market infrastructure with Kraken’s xStocks framework, with the stated goal of allowing tokenized equities to move seamlessly between permissioned institutional environments and permissionless decentralized finance (DeFi) networks.  Related Reading: This Week Could Be The Most Volatile For Bitcoin In 2026, Top Expert Warns According to Nasdaq, the collaboration will underpin a new Nasdaq equity token design intended to preserve issuer control, maintain compliance with existing regulatory frameworks, and protect the traditional rights attached to company shares. 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It works in the moment, but it comes with two common problems: auditing becomes difficult, and temporary exceptions have a way of becoming routine.\nThis post offers my recommendations for good practices applicable to existing Kubernetes environments with minimal tooling changes:\n\nLeast privilege with RBAC\nShort-lived, identity-bound credentials\nAn SSH-style handshake model for cloud native debugging\n\nA good architecture for securing production debugging workflows is to use a just-in-time secure shell gateway\n(often deployed as an on demand pod in the cluster).\nIt acts as an SSH-style “front door” that makes temporary access actually temporary. You can\nauthenticate with short-lived, identity-bound credentials, establish a session to the gateway,\nand the gateway uses the Kubernetes API and RBAC to control what they can do, such as pods/log, pods/exec, and pods/portforward.\nSessions expire automatically, and both the gateway logs and Kubernetes audit logs capture who accessed what and when without shared bastion accounts or long-lived keys.\n1) Using an access broker on top of Kubernetes RBAC\nRBAC controls who can do what in Kubernetes. Many Kubernetes environments rely primarily on RBAC for authorization, although Kubernetes also supports other authorization modes such as Webhook authorization. You can enforce access directly with Kubernetes RBAC, or put an access broker in front of the cluster that still relies on Kubernetes permissions under the hood. In either model, Kubernetes RBAC remains the source of truth for what the Kubernetes API allows and at what scope.\nAn access broker adds controls that RBAC does not cover well. For example, it can decide whether a request is auto-approved or requires manual approval, whether a user can run a command, and which commands are allowed in a session. It can also manage group membership so that you grant permissions to groups instead of individual users. Kubernetes RBAC can allow actions such as pods/exec, but it cannot restrict which commands run inside an exec session.\nWith that model, Kubernetes RBAC defines the allowed actions for a user or group (for example, an on-call team in a single namespace).\nI recommend you only define access rules that grant rights to groups or to ServiceAccounts - never to individual users. The broker or identity provider then adds or removes users from that group as needed.\nThe broker can also enforce extra policy on top, like which commands are permitted in an interactive session and\nwhich requests can be auto-approved versus require manual approval.\nThat policy can live in a JSON or XML file and be maintained through code review, so updates go through a formal pull request and are reviewed like any other production change.\nExample: a namespaced on-call debug Role\napiVersion: rbac.authorization.k8s.io/v1\nkind: Role\nmetadata:\n name: oncall-debug\n namespace: \nrules:\n # Discover what’s running\n - apiGroups: [\"\"]\n resources: [\"pods\", \"events\"]\n verbs: [\"get\", \"list\", \"watch\"]\n\n # Read logs\n - apiGroups: [\"\"]\n resources: [\"pods/log\"]\n verbs: [\"get\"]\n\n # Interactive debugging actions\n - apiGroups: [\"\"]\n resources: [\"pods/exec\", \"pods/portforward\"]\n verbs: [\"create\"]\n\n # Understand rollout/controller state\n - apiGroups: [\"apps\"]\n resources: [\"deployments\", \"replicasets\"]\n verbs: [\"get\", \"list\", \"watch\"]\n\n # Optional: allow kubectl debug ephemeral containers\n - apiGroups: [\"\"]\n resources: [\"pods/ephemeralcontainers\"]\n verbs: [\"update\"]\nBind the Role to a group (rather than individual users) so membership can be managed through your identity provider:\napiVersion: rbac.authorization.k8s.io/v1\nkind: RoleBinding\nmetadata:\n name: oncall-debug\n namespace: \nsubjects:\n - kind: Group\n name: oncall-\n apiGroup: rbac.authorization.k8s.io\nroleRef:\n kind: Role\n name: oncall-debug\n apiGroup: rbac.authorization.k8s.io\n2) Short-lived, identity-bound credentials\nThe goal is to use short-lived, identity-bound credentials that clearly tie a session to a real person and expire quickly. These credentials can include the user’s identity and the scope of what they’re allowed to do. They’re typically signed using a private key that stays with the engineer, such as a hardware-backed key (for example, a YubiKey), so they can not be forged without access to that key.\nYou can implement this with Kubernetes-native authentication (for example, client certificates or an OIDC-based flow),\nor have the access broker from the previous section issue short-lived credentials on the user’s behalf.\nIn many setups, Kubernetes still uses RBAC to enforce permissions based on the authenticated identity and groups/claims.\nIf you use an access broker, it can also encode additional scope constraints in the credential and enforce them during the session, such as which cluster or namespace the session applies to and which actions\n(or approved commands) are allowed against pods or nodes.\nIn either case, the credentials should be signed by a certificate authority (CA), and that CA should be rotated on a regular schedule (for example, quarterly) to limit long-term risk.\nOption A: short-lived OIDC tokens\nA lot of managed Kubernetes clusters already give you short-lived tokens. The main thing is to make sure your kubeconfig refreshes them automatically instead of copying a long-lived token into the file.\nFor example:\nusers:\n- name: oncall\n user:\n exec:\n apiVersion: client.authentication.k8s.io/v1\n command: cred-helper\n args: [\"--cluster=prod\", \"--ttl=30m\"]\nOption B: Short-lived client certificates (X.509)\nIf your API server (or your access broker from the previous section) is set up to trust a client CA, you can use short-lived client certificates for debugging access. The idea is:\n\nThe private key is created and kept under the engineer’s machine (ideally hardware-backed, like a non-exportable key in a YubiKey/PIV token)\nA short-lived certificate is issued (often via the\nCertificateSigningRequest API, or your access broker from the previous section, with a TTL).\nRBAC maps the authenticated identity to a minimal Role\n\nThis is straightforward to operationalize with the Kubernetes CertificateSigningRequest API.\nGenerate a key and CSR locally:\n# Generate a private key.\n# This could instead be generated within a hardware token;\n# OpenSSL and several similar tools include support for that.\nopenssl genpkey -algorithm Ed25519 -out oncall.key\n\nopenssl req -new -key oncall.key -out oncall.csr \n -subj \"/CN=user/O=oncall-payments\"\nCreate a CertificateSigningRequest with a short expiration:\napiVersion: certificates.k8s.io/v1\nkind: CertificateSigningRequest\nmetadata:\n name: oncall--20260218\nspec:\n request: \n signerName: kubernetes.io/kube-apiserver-client\n expirationSeconds: 1800 # 30 minutes\n usages:\n - client auth\nAfter the CSR is approved and signed, you extract the issued certificate and use it together with the private key to authenticate, for example via kubectl.\n3) Use a just-in-time access gateway to run debugging commands\nOnce you have short-lived credentials, you can use them to open a secure shell session to a just-in-time access gateway, often exposed over SSH and created on demand. If the gateway is exposed over SSH, a common pattern is to issue the engineer a short-lived OpenSSH user certificate for the session. The gateway trusts your SSH user CA, authenticates the engineer at connection time, and then applies the approved session policy before making Kubernetes API calls on the user’s behalf. OpenSSH certificates are separate from Kubernetes X.509 client certificates, so these are usually treated as distinct layers.\nThe resulting session should also be scoped so it cannot be reused outside of what was approved. For example, the gateway or broker can limit it to a specific cluster and namespace, and optionally to a narrower target such as a pod or node. That way, even if someone tries to reuse the access, it will not work outside the intended scope. After the session is established, the gateway executes only the allowed actions and records what happened for auditing.\nExample: Namespace-scoped role bindings\napiVersion: rbac.authorization.k8s.io/v1\nkind: Role\nmetadata:\n name: jit-debug\n namespace: \n annotations:\n kubernetes.io/description: >\n Colleagues performing semi-privileged debugging, with access provided\n just in time and on demand.\nrules:\n - apiGroups: [\"\"]\n resources: [\"pods\", \"pods/log\"]\n verbs: [\"get\", \"list\", \"watch\"]\n - apiGroups: [\"\"]\n resources: [\"pods/exec\"]\n verbs: [\"create\"]\n---\napiVersion: rbac.authorization.k8s.io/v1\nkind: RoleBinding\nmetadata:\n name: jit-debug\n namespace: \nsubjects:\n - kind: Group\n name: jit:oncall: # mapped from the short-lived credential (cert/OIDC)\n apiGroup: rbac.authorization.k8s.io\nroleRef:\n kind: Role\n name: jit-debug\n apiGroup: rbac.authorization.k8s.io\nThese RBAC objects, and the rules they define, allow debugging only within the specified namespace; attempts to access other namespaces are not allowed.\nExample: Cluster-scoped role binding\napiVersion: rbac.authorization.k8s.io/v1\nkind: ClusterRole\nmetadata:\n name: jit-cluster-read\nrules:\n - apiGroups: [\"\"]\n resources: [\"nodes\", \"namespaces\"]\n verbs: [\"get\", \"list\", \"watch\"]\n---\napiVersion: rbac.authorization.k8s.io/v1\nkind: ClusterRoleBinding\nmetadata:\n name: jit-cluster-read\nsubjects:\n - kind: Group\n name: jit:oncall:cluster\n apiGroup: rbac.authorization.k8s.io\nroleRef:\n kind: ClusterRole\n name: jit-cluster-read\n apiGroup: rbac.authorization.k8s.io\nThese RBAC rules grant cluster-wide read access (for example, to nodes and namespaces) and should be used only for workflows that truly require cluster-scoped resources.\nFiner-grained restrictions like “only this pod/node” or “only these commands” are typically enforced by the access gateway/broker during the session, but Kubernetes also offers other options, such as ValidatingAdmissionPolicy for restricting writes and webhook authorization for custom authorization across verbs.\nIn environments with stricter access controls, you can add an extra, short-lived session mediation layer\nto separate session establishment from privileged actions. Both layers are ephemeral, use identity-bound expiring credentials,\nand produce independent audit trails. The mediation layer handles session setup/forwarding,\nwhile the execution layer performs only RBAC-authorized Kubernetes actions.\nThis separation can reduce exposure by narrowing responsibilities, scoping credentials per step, and enforcing end-to-end session expiry.\nReferences\n\nAuthorization\nUsing RBAC Authorization\nAuthenticating\nCertificates and Certificate Signing Requests\nIssue a Certificate for a Kubernetes API Client Using a CertificateSigningRequest\nRole Based Access Control Good Practices\n\nDisclaimer: The views expressed in this post are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of the author’s employer or any other organization.","headline":"Securing Production Debugging in Kubernetes","tag":"","information":{"proof":{"hash":"580461fd02a6986b83619e31ca437ff67fdc7544a3f60c26c78587cbeab95dea","mimeType":"image/png","timestamp":1773866721}},"signed_metadata":"{\n  \"created_at\": 1773856800,\n  \"recorder\": \"Capture\",\n  \"spec_version\": 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is starting to show intriguing signals on the monthly time frame, with long-term data hinting at a potential shift in market structure. While short-term price action often captures attention, it is the higher-time-frame trends that typically define the broader market direction, and those signals are now starting to align in a way that looks increasingly significant. What The Monthly Candles Reveal About Market Direction The latest price action of Bitcoin suggests that the monthly low may already be in, with time-based statistics pointing to a strong probability of higher prices ahead. Market analyst Lennaert Snyder highlighted on X that, based on the past 10 years of BTC data, approximately 97.7% of monthly highs and lows are formed within the first 15 days of the month, suggesting the recent low is likely to hold for the rest of the month. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Showing A Major Deviation From 2022, Analyst Says This Is A Different Foundation Snyder noted that around 80.7% of months go on to print a new P2 (Point 2) after the 17th day, based on the timing. These time-based statistics suggest that there is a higher chance that the BTC price will experience upward momentum this month. How Market Structure Holds While Timing Models Shift Bitcoin is showing a subtle shift in behavior as price has broken away from the established 14th pattern for the first time in the past 7 months, causing the market algorithms to shift over time. A crypto trader known as Killa on X claimed that it was possible to capitalize on all 5 occurrences of this setup during that period. Related Reading: Bitcoin Shows Early Trend Reversal Signs After Major Support Hold However, the current deviation represents only a single pivot from a time-based price structure, which on its own is not enough to invalidate the larger thesis. This simply alters how the price reacts around that specific pivot rather than changing the overall trend structure of the market. Killa emphasized that in this case, pivot helps identify periods where directional volatility is likely to increase, and this consistent pattern over the past 7 months has produced 5 high-quality opportunities. It is important to distinguish between time-based pivots and price structure. While pivots can fail or lose reliability over time, the underlying structural price behavior will ultimately remain a driver of the market direction. Looking ahead, attention is shifting to macro catalysts as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is approaching, and much of the narrative has already been priced in. Institutional players are already positioning ahead of the event. Currently, the price has pushed higher into it, and the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data did not produce a local up, leaving open the possibility that the upcoming FOMC decision could act as the next inflection point. 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price has spent much of the past cycle lagging its own institutional and on-chain progress, and Bitwise says the reason is straightforward: ETH is still trading primarily as a Bitcoin proxy, not as a fundamentally valued network. In a new factor-model analysis, the asset manager found BTC has been the dominant force behind weekly ETH returns since 2018, with macro conditions, network activity and ETP flows playing secondary roles. That finding matters because it cuts against one of the more persistent narratives around Ethereum. Regulatory clarity has improved, institutional access has broadened, and Ethereum still underpins a large share of stablecoin and tokenized-asset activity. Yet ETH remains about 62% below its all-time high, a disconnect Bitwise set out to explain with a model based on 406 weekly observations going back to May 2018. The answer, at least statistically, is that Bitcoin overwhelms almost everything else. Bitwise said ETH “moves nearly 1:1 with BTC on a weekly basis,” with a coefficient of roughly 0.99. BTC alone explains around 65% of Ethereum’s return variance, making it the clear core driver of price direction. Related Reading: Ethereum Whales Step In: $33M ETH Withdrawn From Exchanges In Hours The firm’s broader conclusion is blunt. “Adoption fundamentals, such as active addresses, clearly have less impact on Ethereum’s price than many assume,” the report said. “Extending this further, revenue generation appears even less relevant, as it was removed from the GETS model as ‘noise rather than signal.’ Combining both of these conclusions supports the idea that since the start of the model in 2018, Ethereum has been priced more like a network-driven commodity than a business with durable cash flows.” Other Factors Impacting Ethereum Price That framing runs through the rest of the report. Financial conditions, measured through the Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index, emerged as the second most important explanatory variable. Bitwise assigned the factor a coefficient of about 0.05, with mean explanatory power of 11.3%, though that climbed to roughly 40% at peak periods. Network activity, proxied by active addresses, had a smaller coefficient near 0.03 and average explanatory power of 6%, rising to 30% in stronger phases. ETF flows showed a different pattern. Their coefficient was only around 0.01, but Bitwise said they were “highly significant,” explaining about 10% of ETH variance on average and up to 40% at peak. In other words, flows matter consistently, but not with the same force as BTC-led market beta. That distinction becomes clearer in different market regimes. Between June and August 2025, Bitwise said Ethereum behaved like a levered Bitcoin trade, with its BTC coefficient rising to between 1.5 and 1.6 as BTC approached fresh highs. Related Reading: Ethereum Futures Volume Outruns Spot 6-to-1 As Macro Stress Weighs On Crypto During the post-FTX stress period in the second half of 2022, the dynamic became even harsher: “Every factor except BTC carried a negative coefficient as returns were explained up to 90% by BTC. In moments like these, cash liquidity is what matters. Not fundamentals, flows or macro. As such, ETH was essentially anchored to BTC.” There have been exceptions. Bitwise identified May 2021 as the period of lowest BTC sensitivity, when Bitcoin had already peaked but Ethereum kept rallying as active addresses surged during the NFT boom. Still, those idiosyncratic windows appear episodic rather than structural. The report also undercuts the case that a richer multi-factor framework materially improves short-term forecasting. While the model explains historical returns reasonably well, Bitwise said its out-of-sample performance failed to beat a much simpler AR(1)+BTC model. Most of the predictive value came from Bitcoin exposure and price persistence, while additional factors added only limited forecasting power. That leaves Ethereum in what Bitwise called a “paradoxical position”: a network with deepening institutional relevance, dominant stablecoin and tokenization market share, and an increasingly focused roadmap, but a price still driven mostly by external beta. At press time, ETH traded at $2,305. 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Network-wide APR compression, capital rotation away from Simple LST toward exchange and institutional staking, and intensified competition reduced the size of the segment where Lido holds category leadership. Gross Revenue declined 18.2% year over year (-17.4% in ETH terms). The decline was driven by net staking outflows and network-wide APR compression (especially in terms of Execution Layer rewards).\nExecution focused on expanding beyond a single product and strengthening protocol resilience. Initial progress included the launch of Lido Earn, which by year-end offered three vault strategies (GG Vault (GVV), stRATEGY Vault, and Decentralized Validator Vault (DVV)), the phase-1 launch of stVaults, continued Community Staking Module (CSM) expansion, Curated Module fee revision, and the activation of Dual Governance.\nKey metrics and outcomes for the year are summarized below.\n\nKey Developments\nSeveral initiatives were delivered in 2025 to expand the protocol beyond a single product and strengthen its long-term resilience. Key developments included:\nstETH & Product Line Expansion\n\nLido Earn launched: 77k ETH TVL by year-end; establishes a product line for APR-maxis.\nstVaults phase-1 launched: This protocol expansion widens the addressable market and allows node operators to act as builders. It enables configurable staking infrastructure for institutional and specialized use cases, leveraging stETH’s market-leading liquidity and DeFi integrations.\nWisdomTree ETP live: first liquid staking ETP in Europe; $50M AUM at the launch. Opens a regulated institutional distribution channel for stETH exposure.\n\nValidator Set & Validator Marketplace\n\nCurated Module fee revision and CSM economics increased the DAO’s effective share of protocol rewards at year-end, to 6.10% (+23% YoY) (last week of December 2025 actuals), without changing the 10% protocol fee.\nThe set of node operators running validators on Lido has expanded to 700+ unique active node operators, improving the protocol’s decentralization.\nCSM enabled permissionless validator participation and saw rapid growth following its launch. By year-end, the module included 412 active node operators.\n\nGovernance & LDO Tokenomics\n\nDual Governance launched: introduces a protocol-level safety mechanism for stETH holders, strengthening long-term governance alignment and significantly reducing counterparty risk, especially relevant for institutional stakers.\nGovernance transparency improved through quarterly Tokenholder Update Calls, clearer Guided Open Objective Setting Exercise (GOOSE) and Ecosystem Grant Request (EGG) procedures, and annual-style execution and financial reporting.\n\nNew Foundations Leadership\nAlso, during the year, the Foundations introduced new leadership to guide the protocol through its next phase. Executive Director Lido Labs Foundation Vasiliy Shapovalov, with Isidoros Passadis serving as Chief of Staking. Sam Kim served as Chief Legal & Operating Officer until the end of December 2025, when he stepped down and was succeeded by Kate Zueva as Deputy Chief Operating Officer. Under this leadership, the organization increased its focus on execution, product expansion, and financial discipline. In parallel, cost-optimization measures, including a reduction in contributor headcount, were implemented to better align the operating model with market conditions. These changes improved operating efficiency and strengthened the DAO’s financial resilience.\nWhat Comes Next\nIn 2026, execution will focus on scaling adoption of the expanded product line around stETH, completing the validator marketplace, and advancing LDO alignment under clear treasury-surplus guardrails.\n1. Intro\nThis report provides the 2025 update as mandated by the Snapshot vote, explicitly referencing the GOOSE 2024 cycle: Lido DAO goals for 2025 (GOOSE 2025) proposal.\nGOOSE is the DAO’s framework for setting three-year objectives and defining annual goals aligned with those objectives.\nThe three objectives for 2025 were:\n\nEffective and decentralized governance\nBest validator set in the market\nstETH is the most used token in the Ethereum ecosystem\n\nFor 2025, these were operationalized into three priorities: expanding stETH into a diversified product line, establishing a validator marketplace, and strengthening LDO’s role in governance through improved incentive alignment and protocol safeguards.\nThis report is prepared by Lido Labs Foundation in coordination with the Lido Ecosystem and Lido Alliance Foundations (together, the Foundations). These entities received grant funding from the DAO to execute GOOSE 2025 initiatives. This report reviews delivery against those objectives and priorities from January 1 to December 31, 2025. It also includes market and execution context, financial data, and treasury position changes for the same period.\n2. Market Context and Strategic Reset\nMarket Environment\nThe structural shift in Ethereum staking that began in 2024 continued and intensified throughout 2025. Network-wide staking APR compression, driven by an execution layer (EL) rewards drop due to network scaling, and a consensus layer (CL) rewards decrease, predetermined by the issuance curve, plus increased product fragmentation and evolving capital preferences, reshaped demand across segments.\nThe Simple LST segment, historically Lido’s strongest category, had already begun contracting in 2024 and continued to decline as a share of total staking in 2025. Capital rotated toward exchange staking, institutional low-risk staking, and the APR-maxis segment, where liquid restaking providers heavily incentivized demand with protocol token subsidies. This rotation altered the competitive landscape and compressed market share across liquid staking providers.\nIn this context, Lido’s market share declined. The compression reflects ongoing market rotation and intensified competition, not a loss of category leadership. Lido remains the largest liquid staking solution with 24.12% of all staked ETH.\n\n\n\nLeadership and Execution Reset\nRewards compression and slower staking growth required operational adjustments.\nIn Q2, the Foundations introduced new leadership. In the second half of the year, cost discipline was enforced across organizations, including a 15% reduction in contributor headcount and Token Reward Plan (TRP) adjustments. After a cost rationalisation exercise, total expenses for the year were $39.1M, excluding TRP costs, well below the approved 77M grant and 8% lower than in 2024 ($42.4M). TRP expenses decreased from $9.7M to $6.4M annually, a 34% reduction. Year over year, total Foundations’ expenses decreased by $6.6M, resulting in a 13% reduction instead of the planned increase.\nStrategic Reprioritization\nOver the past years, Lido contributors focused on building core infrastructure for secure, decentralized Ethereum staking, strengthening validator decentralization, governance mechanisms, and protocol resilience. By 2025, that foundational phase was largely in place. The strategic priority shifted from building the core system to preparing it for the next phase of growth while making the core staking economics more resilient.\nThis reprioritization centered on four priorities:\n\nContinued strengthening of protocol and DAO resilience.\nRestructuring staking modules economics.\nTargeted expansion into APR-maxis and low-risk staking segments.\nDiversification of revenue streams.\n\nThis transition reflects a move from infrastructure consolidation to product-driven expansion, while maintaining leadership in the Simple LST segment.\n3. GOOSE-2025 Achievements\n3.1 stETH & Product Line Expansion\n\nThe primary objective for 2025 was to transition from a single-product staking model to a broader product line that addresses underserved segments, including institutional stakers and APR-maxis. Below is a summary of progress toward this objective.\n3.1.1 stVaults (Lido V3) – Phase 1 Launched December 2025\nLido V3 introduced non-custodial, over-collateralized staking vaults (stVaults), enabling stakers to opt into specific operators and strategies while minting stETH. stVaults operationalize the transition from a monolithic staking model to a modular product architecture.\nFollowing the Phase 1 mainnet launch in December, Phase 2 went live on January 29, 2026, fulfilling the GOOSE-2025 goal of product line expansion. The DeFi Wrapper, a reference implementation of an stVault and DeFi strategy combination, is already available for builders and also has custom strategy support. stETH minting in permissionlessly created stVaults is expected in late Q1 2026 as part of the next rollout phase.\nEarly ecosystem signals include:\n\nLinea plans to power its Yield Boost mechanism by staking bridged ETH through stVaults\nThe Pier Two × RockSolid AutoPlus Looped ETH Vault is among the first live implementations of the architecture.\nNansen is building a transparent staking product combining stVaults with analytics and DeFi strategy layers\nP2P.org is developing modular institutional vault structures that support dedicated staking and composable yield products.\n\nInstitutional Infrastructure providers such as Kiln, Northstake, Solstice, and Everstake are exploring stVault-based configurations for institutional staking products.\n3.1.2 Lido Earn – Launched August 2025\nLido Earn addresses the APR-maxis segment, stakers who prioritize the highest returns, which expanded materially as staking demand rotated toward higher-yield products.\nThe product launched in August 2025 and provides a structured layer for deploying stETH into curated yield strategies while preserving the liquidity and composability of liquid staking.\nBy year-end, traction included:\n\nTVL: 77,002 ETH\nAnnualized result (30d MA): $1.1M\nActive vaults: 3\n\nLido Earn expands stETH utility beyond passive liquid staking and creates an additional revenue source for the DAO Treasury.\n3.1.3 Institutional & Low-Risk Staking\nWisdomTree Physical Lido Staked Ether (LIST) — WisdomTree, a global Asset Manager with over $140 billion in assets under management and numerous digital asset ETFs and ETPs, chose stETH for its European liquid staking ETP, which it launched in December 2025. This is the first European ETP holding only stETH minted via the Lido protocol and is listed on leading European exchanges, including Xetra, SIX, and Euronext. The product’s launch AUM was about $50M.\nVanEck Lido Staked ETH ETF — S-1 filed with the U.S. SEC in 2025.\nIf approved, the fund would hold stETH and provide regulated U.S. exposure to Ethereum staking through an ETF structure.\nAlso, in 2025, stETH integrations expanded across custody and institutional venues, strengthening access rails:\n\nHex Trust (Sep 2025) - enabled stETH custody support and ETH staking via the Lido protocol\nBitGo (Jul 2025) - enabled ETH staking via the Lido protocol and direct stETH minting for users in Europe and Asia\nCaladan (Jul 2025) - integrated stETH as accepted collateral for institutional OTC and structured products\nKomainu (May 2025) - introduced multi-jurisdictional stETH custody with support for using stETH as collateral for off-exchange financing and settlement\nCrypto Finance AG (Jan 2025) - added custody support for stETH\n\nThese integrations expand institutional on-ramps and strengthen stETH’s position in regulated capital markets.\n3.2 Validator Set & Validator Marketplace\nThe node operator set expanded in 2025, driven by permissionless and DVT-based modules.\n\nAdditional validator and node operator metrics can be found in the quarterly updated Lido Validator and Node Operator Metrics (VaNOM) tool.\nBusiness Impact of Validator Expansion\n\nSupply chain diversification: reduced reliance on a single operator or infrastructure provider.\nStaking rewards protection: lower exposure to correlated failures, slashing events, and operational downtime.\nCost leverage: increased competition among operators.\n\n3.2.1 CSM — Permissionless Entry & v2 Upgrade\nCSM became fully permissionless in January 2025, lowering barriers to validator participation. CSM v2, launched on October 2, introduced:\n\nThe Identified Community Stakers (ICS) framework, which has enfranchised hundreds of identified home stakers by allowing them to operate validators at slightly better terms than a normal permissionless user of CSM\nA more precise Performance Oracle, combined with a strikes system that allows the module to self-heal in the case that node operators underperform\nTriggerable Withdrawals (EIP-7002) support, increasing protocol security\nRevised economics for node operators using CSM:\n\nPreferential node operator rewards share (6%) for the first 16 validators of an ICS Node Operator\n3.5% node operator rewards share for all other validators and for the permissionless node operator type\n\n\n\nPermissionless access is now paired with enforceable performance standards and differentiated operator economics.\n3.2.2 Curated Module Fee Revision\nIn response to staking market fee compression, the Curated Module economics were adjusted by tokenholder vote from a 5% blanket node operator share of rewards to a system based on node operator tiers.\nNew baseline node operator tiers:\n\nStandard: 3.50%\nExtra Effort: 4.00%\nClient-Team: 4.50%\n\nThe protocol-level fee (10%) remains unchanged, resulting in higher DAO net rewards.\nLido Core DAO Share of Staking Rewards Evolution\n\n*Voting on the DAO rewards rate changes took place in mid-December with enactment on December 24, and the actual data resulting from these changes is provided in the table above for December 25-31.\n3.2.3 Toward a Validator Marketplace\nWork progressed on Curated Module v2 (CMv2) and Staking Router v3 (SRv3), planned for H2 2026. These protocol upgrades aim to introduce:\n\nFee competition between operators\nMore granular stake allocation based on a weights system, with the ability to rebalance stake distribution if needed\nOperator-type differentiation\nPerformance-influenced stake (de)allocation\n\nTogether, these initiatives will be the final steps required to complete the transition to the validator marketplace.\n3.3 Governance & LDO Tokenomics\n3.3.1 Dual Governance — Activated July 2025\nDual Governance introduced a protocol-level objection mechanism that allows stETH holders, under certain conditions, to delay governance decisions and exit before undesirable changes take effect. By linking opposition intensity to timelock duration, the mechanism increases the cost of contentious proposals and allows time for corrective action.\nStrategic impact\n\nReduces governance tail risk for stETH holders.\nStrengthens protocol-level safeguards.\nImproves institutional confidence in Lido’s risk framework.\nServes as a mechanism to signal stETH user agreement (or disagreement) with proposed protocol changes.\n\n3.3.2 LDO Alignment — Economic Framework & NEST\nIn 2025, governance work progressed toward stronger economic alignment between protocol performance and LDO. By end-year the alignment framework follows these main principles:\n\nRelevant protocol rewards flow to the DAO, not the Foundations\nTreasury surplus belongs to the DAO\nLDO tokenholder votes govern the treasury\nFoundations operate under defined DAO oversight and intervention rights\nTransparent annual financial reporting is established\n\nThe next step is to formalize a direct link between protocol performance and LDO.\nNEST (Network Economic Support Tokenomics) – a modular, future-proof system that, when supplied with stETH, enables stETH to be swapped for LDO – establishes the infrastructure.\nIn December, development of the first manual module was completed. It represents a governance-controlled mechanism enabling manually triggered any-to-any token swaps. Activation requires a DAO vote and is proposed to be launched together with the future automated buyback module.\nBuilding on this infrastructure, forum discussions are ongoing regarding automated treasury surplus–funded liquid buybacks. Under the proposed design, protocol-generated staking rewards would be used to acquire LDO from the open market and deploy the tokens into an LDO/wstETH liquidity position held by the DAO. This structure creates a direct link between protocol performance and LDO while maintaining market liquidity. The intent is to ensure any value-routing mechanism activates only when a genuine treasury surplus exists and scales with improved protocol economics.\nThe initiative is currently in technical validation and parameter research. Release is targeted for Q2 2026.\n3.3.3 Governance Participation & Process Discipline\nQuorums were consistently met in 2025, with only a single vote failing to reach the quorum, a significant improvement compared to the three no-quorum votes recorded in 2024. The DAO remained operationally responsive throughout the year with active voting power on Aragon: 87M LDO.\nThe Public Delegates program continued to support participation. Throughout the year, 10 active public delegates consistently participated in governance, collectively securing roughly 25M LDO. This delegation structure significantly improves decision-making stability by ensuring a reliable base of engaged governance participants, while maintaining open participation for the broader community.\nSignificant progress has been made in making the work of the Foundations more transparent, understandable, and traceable:\n\nLaunch of quarterly Tokenholder Update Calls\nPublication of a preliminary GOOSE 2025 progress report in Q3\nClearer procedures for GOOSE 2026 and EGG proposals\nAdded structured annual reporting on GOOSE Goals progress and overall DAO finance.\n\n4. Funding & Financial Overview\n2025 unfolded under rewards compression driven by staking outflows and a network-wide decline in staking APR. Total Revenue was $40.5M, reflecting lower net staking fees and APR compression.\nAt the same time, Foundations’ expenses were reduced year over year from $52.1M to $45.5M, resulting in a 13% decrease. It was below the approved aggregate grants, reflecting cost-optimization measures across the Foundations.\nOverview\n\n\n\n\nmUSD\n2024Y\n2025Y\nΔ\nΔ %\n\n\n\n\nGross Staking Rewards\n1,034.5\n846.7\n(187.8)\n-18%\n\n\nGross Revenue\n103.5\n84.7\n(18.8)\n-18%\n\n\nCost of Revenue (staking rewards to NOs and NOs rebates)\n(51.9)\n(43.1)\n8.7\n-17%\n\n\nCost of Revenue (deposit referrals)*\n(3.1)\n(4.1)\n(1.0)\n32%\n\n\nNet Revenue from staking fees (incl. stVaults)\n48.5\n37.4\n(11.1)\n-23%\n\n\nOther Revenue\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNew Product: Lido Earn\n0.0\n0.3\n0.3\n100%\n\n\nTreasury Management (stETH APY, sUSDS, (T)MMFs)\n3.9\n2.7\n(1.2)\n-31%\n\n\nTotal Revenue\n52.4\n40.5\n(11.9)\n-23%\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTotal Operating Expenses\n(40.9)\n(40.7)\n0.2\n0%\n\n\nOperating Expenses\n(28.8)\n(33.0)\n(4.2)\n15%\n\n\nTRP costs\n(9.7)\n(6.4)\n3.2\n-34%\n\n\nLido Ecosystem Grant Organization (LEGO) grants, incl. LDO-denominated\n(1.5)\n(1.1)\n0.4\n-28%\n\n\nOther income and expenses\n(0.9)\n(0.1)\n0.8\n-84%\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nGrowth & liquidity\n(11.2)\n(4.8)\n6.4\n-57%\n\n\nLiquidity Rewards\n(11.2)\n(4.8)\n6.4\n-57%\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTotal Foundations’ Expenses excl. TRP costs\n(42.4)\n(39.1)\n3.3\n-8%\n\n\nTotal Foundations’ Expenses\n(52.1)\n(45.5)\n6.6\n-13%\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTotal Treasury Surplus\n0.3\n(5.0)\n(5.3)\n\n\n\n\n*Deposit referrals were reclassified from Growth & liquidity to Cost of Revenue (deposit referrals)\nApproved Grants\n​​While the DAO approved up to $77M in grants in 2025, this figure represents the maximum authorized grant rather than the amount actually withdrawn from the Treasury. Actual spending was limited to $45.5M in total Foundations’ expenses. Any balance above the reported $45.5M is not considered available for future use by the Foundations, which no longer have a mandate to spend it. Where such funds remained in the Treasury, they were never drawn. Where they continue to be held on Foundations’ multisigs, they are reported below as part of the Treasury position and would only be used under separate grant mandates.\n\n$11.1M for Q1 ’25 expenses\n$34.88M for Q2–Q4 ’25 expenses (per Lido Labs Foundation request)\n$10.61M for Q2–Q4 ’25 expenses (per Lido Ecosystem Foundation request)\n$0.3M for Q1–Q4 ’25 expenses (per Lido Alliance Foundation)\n$2M Lido Ecosystem Grant Organization (LEGO) Committee ongoing grant ($0.5M quarterly)\n$8.5M Liquidity Observation Lab (H1 grant)\n$8.5M Liquidity Observation Lab (H2 grant)\n$0.3M Delegate Incentivization Programme grants (link, link)\n$0.8M Community Lifeguards Initiative (CLI) ($0.2M quarterly)\n\nAdditionally, three more grants were approved earlier:\n\n$2M bug bounty emergency reserve (largely unused)\n22M LDO TRP grant from 2020 (partially unspent). The TRP grant usage is reflected in the financial statements on an accrual basis as part of the TRP costs.\n3,000 stETH for the Rewards Share Program approved in 2023\n\nThis fragmentation made it difficult to assess total spend, track performance across workstreams, and maintain consistent financial controls. In addition, 2025 brought leadership changes and shifting priorities, leading to a reprioritisation of spend across workstreams and inter-entity cost reallocation. The Foundations have since refined monitoring and mandate-alignment frameworks to ensure better discipline in 2026.\nThe earlier stated $58.9M was based on a subset of the largest requests. To improve transparency and avoid inflated grant requests and fragmentation, 2026 grants were requested in a consolidated format.\nTreasury Position\n\n\n\n\n\n\n2024Y\n\n2025Y\n\nΔ\n\n\n\n\nstETH in DAO Treasury at the end of the period (amount)\n\n34,161\n\n33,561\n\n(599.3)\n\n\nstETH in DAO Treasury at the end of the period (value in mUSD)\n\n114.0\n\n99.6\n\n(14.3)\n\n\nStablecoins in DAO Treasury, mUSD\n\n25.1\n\n21.9\n\n(3.2)\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nstETH in Foundations multisigs (amount)\n\n7,323\n\n8,192\n\n869.2\n\n\nstETH in Foundations multisigs (value in mUSD)\n\n24.4\n\n24.3\n\n(0.1)\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nStablecoins in Foundations multisigs, mUSD\n\n3.7\n\n7.0\n\n3.3\n\n\nFiat balances in Foundations accounts\n\n0.7\n\n0.8\n\n0.1\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nLP positions / funds for market making, mUSD\n\n0.0\n\n3.1\n\n3.1\n\n\nLiquid assets Matic, ZK, mUSD\n\n0.1\n\n0.2\n\n0.1\n\n\nLiquid assets wstETH, mUSD\n\n0.2\n\n0.5\n\n0.4\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nstSol in Solana treasury Multisig (amount)\n\n13,819\n\n0\n\n(13,819)\n\n\nstSol in Solana treasury Multisig (mUSD)\n\n3.3\n\n0.0\n\n(3.3)\n\n\nTotal Treasury in USD\n\n171.5\n\n157.5\n\n(14.0)\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTotal Treasury closed the year at $157.5M, down from $171.5M in 2024. The change was driven mainly by a reduction in the USD value of the stETH treasury position, not by structural operating deficits.\nBasis of Presentation and Accounting Policies\nDisclaimer\nThe financial information included in this report was not prepared in accordance with any major GAAP.\nAccounting Policy\nThe financial report is prepared on an accrual basis. Rewards and expenses are recognized in the period in which they are economically earned or incurred, rather than when tokens are transferred on-chain. To ensure comparability, 2024 figures have been restated for material accrual items.\nThe primary changes include:\n\napplication of period cut-off adjustments for 2025Y only (cut-off adjustments were not applied to 2024 figures as the estimated impact of such adjustments is not considered material).\naccrual recognition of TRP expenses both for 2024 and 2025 due to their significance and for comparability purposes.\n\nRecognition of TRP expenses on an accrual basis means that the monthly expense is calculated based on (i) the amount of tokens vested during the reporting period and (ii) the 30-day average LDO/USD market price used for valuation. TRP compensation is recognized linearly over the requisite service period regardless of cliff structures.\nLDO tokens are recognized when expensed. Unallocated LDO tokens held by DAO are excluded from the reported Total Treasury Position balance.\nUSD Conversion\nFor accounting purposes, the USD value of transactions and rewards is calculated using the token price recorded at the end of the day when the transaction occurred. Token balances are valued in USD using the end-of-day closing price on the reporting date.\nExplanation of Key Financial Items\nGross Revenue represents the protocol’s share of Ethereum staking rewards generated by Lido validators after distribution to stETH holders. These rewards are further allocated to node operator rewards, deposit referral incentives, and node operator rebates. Node operators’ rebates represent adjustments that increase the effective reward share for certain node operators, reflecting differences between the base node operator fee and higher reward levels applicable to specific operator types.\nOther Revenue includes additional revenue streams outside the Lido protocol fee. These primarily consist of Treasury Management rewards, generated from treasury-held assets, as well as early-stage rewards from new protocol products, such as Lido Earn.\nOperating Expenses represent the grants the DAO provides to develop, maintain, and operate the Lido protocol. These include research and development (protocol upgrades, engineering, monitoring, and validator tooling), general and administrative costs (legal, finance, DAO operations, and shared infrastructure), marketing and communications, and security audits and infrastructure services.\nLiquidity Rewards represent expenses aimed at strategically boosting liquidity in crucial stETH applications, supporting potential integrations that can strengthen the stETH ecosystem, and implementing temporary liquidity measures with clearly defined objectives.\n5. Conclusion & 2026 Direction\nWith Lido DAO’s core mission largely complete (see Lido on Ethereum Scorecard), the protocol now stands as a secure, decentralized, and scalable staking platform. The foundational engineering phase focused on validator decentralization, staking infrastructure, and governance safeguards, achieving structural maturity.\n2025 marked the completion of that phase, with the permissionless CSM and Dual Governance in place. The protocol operates at scale, with diversified validator participation, embedded governance protections, and structured financial oversight.\nStaking remains a durable and predictable source of rewards. The current growth vector is Lido’s product portfolio expansion, including modular staking infrastructure (stVaults), APR-maxis oriented products such as Lido Earn, and institutional staking distribution channels.\n\nThis material is for informational purposes only and is not investment, legal, business, financial, or tax advice.\nNo representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. No information in this material should be interpreted as a recommendation or relied upon as a guarantee of any specific outcome. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any opinions or forward-looking statements reflect the current judgment of the Foundations as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. 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has reclaimed the $1.50 level as market activity accelerates and bullish momentum begins to build after weeks of consolidation. The move higher suggests that buyers are regaining control, with traders closely watching whether XRP can sustain this breakout and establish a stronger uptrend. Related Reading: Ethereum Whales Step In: $33M ETH Withdrawn From Exchanges In Hours Beyond price action, derivatives data is revealing a notable shift in market behavior. According to a recent CryptoQuant report, multiple indicators are now signaling activity levels not seen in weeks, pointing to a renewed wave of participation across XRP markets. In particular, the Multi-Exchange Open Interest Delta is showing clear signs of expansion. This metric tracks the net change in total open contracts across major derivatives platforms over a given period, offering insight into how traders are positioning. A positive Open Interest Delta indicates that new positions are being opened, reflecting growing participation and capital inflows into the market. Conversely, a negative reading suggests that traders are closing positions, which typically signals reduced activity or risk-off behavior. Recent data shows a sustained increase in open interest, suggesting that traders are actively entering the market rather than exiting. For analysts, this shift often signals rising conviction and increasing speculative interest, conditions that can support stronger price movements if accompanied by continued demand and favorable market structure. Open Interest Surge and Liquidations Drive XRP Breakout Dynamics The CryptoQuant report provides a broader perspective by tracking Open Interest Delta across six major derivatives exchanges, offering a comprehensive view of how traders are positioning in XRP. The data reveals two distinct waves of position building that preceded the recent breakout. On March 13, open interest increased by approximately $16 million, followed by a second surge on March 16, where an additional $18 million in positions were opened. This sequence is structurally important, as it shows that traders were actively building exposure before XRP broke above the $1.50 level, marking the asset’s first return to this price zone since February 15. At the same time, liquidation data highlights the impact of this positioning. XRP’s move above $1.50 forced significant liquidations on short positions, proving that the breakout caught many traders off guard. The prior increase in open interest played a key role in this dynamic. Higher leverage across the market meant that once the price moved against short positions, forced liquidations accelerated the move, adding momentum and volatility. This combination of pre-breakout positioning and post-breakout liquidations suggests that derivatives activity amplified XRP’s rally beyond spot demand, creating a feedback loop that intensified price action. Related Reading: XRP Liquidity Builds on Binance – What The 2.78B Reserve Spike Means XRP Reclaims $1.50 but Faces Structural Resistance The XRP 3-day chart shows the asset attempting to stabilize after a prolonged downtrend that began in late 2025. XRP is currently trading around $1.51, having recently reclaimed the $1.50 level, which now acts as a key short-term pivot for price direction. The broader structure remains corrective. XRP continues to trade below the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages, all of which are trending downward. The market’s current alignment reflects ongoing pressure as sellers frequently meet price rallies with heavy supply at higher levels. Related Reading: Ethereum Futures Volume Outruns Spot 6-to-1 As Macro Stress Weighs On Crypto However, the recent rebound from the $1.10–$1.20 region is technically significant. That zone marked a capitulation low, supported by a noticeable increase in volume, suggesting strong buyer absorption. Since then, XRP has formed a base between $1.30 and $1.45, gradually building momentum before pushing higher. Reclaiming $1.50 indicates improving sentiment, but the asset now faces immediate resistance near $1.70, followed by a stronger barrier around $2.00, where previous consolidation and moving averages converge. Volume during the recovery remains moderate, signaling that the move is still developing rather than driven by aggressive inflows. 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(BTC) is hanging around $74k, still respecting the post‑shock range and struggling to clear recent highs. Bitcoin Range Holds Today’s QCP Market Colour reports that “the damage has been fairly contained”: the broader crypto market is soft compared with November–January, but continues to be under pressure, as other macro‑sensitive risk assets have fallen harder, although the pullback has been fairly limited in comparison. Dip‑buying interest appears near the lower end of the range, yet spot volumes are light and the tape feels macro‑led rather than crypto‑idiosyncratic. Related Reading: Crypto Payments Are Going Mainstream: Can Tourists Turn Into Daily Users In South Korea? In options, the tone remains firm but quietly defensive. Thirty‑day implied volatility is holding around the 50 handle, still sitting above realized, which keeps carry positive and makes short‑vol strategies attractive for sophisticated premium sellers. At the same time, the term structure is only mildly in contango (short‑dated options are cheaper than longer‑dated ones), signaling a market that is alert to risk but not trading in outright panic mode. Under the surface, skew tells a more cautious story. Thirty‑day risk reversals continue to price puts richer than calls, a sign that traders are willing to pay up for downside protection even with spot pinned near the top end of the range. Skew is not extreme: the fact that traders consistently favor puts over calls implies they mostly hold long bitcoin positions but are protecting themselves with hedges, instead of being outright, unhedged bulls. Further out the curve, a residual geopolitical premium remains embedded, reflecting ongoing concerns around oil, conflicts, and the broader stagflation narrative, QCP reports suggest. The Fed Takes Centre Stage Macro is firmly in the driver’s seat as markets head into one of the densest policy weeks of the year so far: The Fed takes the stage on Wednesday, followed in quick succession by the ECB, BoJ and BoE on Thursday, concentrating rates risk into a 48‑hour window. Higher oil near $100 is complicating the case for rate cuts with sticky inflation prints and higher energy costs just as growth and labor data soften, so markets have dialed back easing expectations. Oil trades at $95 on the daily chart. Source: OILUSD on Tradingview For crypto, that mix is a double‑edged sword. A less dovish rates path keeps real yields elevated and limits the upside impulse from the “liquidity trade” that powered earlier legs of the rally. At the same time, oil hovering near triple digits and lingering geopolitical tension are feeding a stagflationary tone across assets, blurring Bitcoin’s role between high‑beta risk and potential macro hedge. Related Reading: Crypto Rails Go Mainstream — Inside Mastercard’s Bold $1.8 Billion BVNK Acquisition What This Means For Traders The setup still looks like a range rather than a clean trend. Options show no panic, but richer puts underline ongoing demand for downside protection. Until policy guidance or geopolitics provide a clearer signal, BTC is likely to remain trapped in its range, trading as a macro‑sensitive asset rather than a purely crypto‑native story. In simpler words, BTC is no longer behaving as pure high‑beta tech, but it is not yet seeing consistent, gold‑style safe‑haven inflows either. That backdrop favors structured premium selling and disciplined range‑trading over chasing breakouts. At the moment of writing, BTC's price sits in the highs $72k. 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crypto pundit TARA has published a five-cycle Fibonacci roadmap for XRP on X, projecting that the crypto’s price will eventually surpass $100 in the long term.  The projections, which are based on 0.618 extension targets applied to XRP’s 12-month candlestick chart, trace a sequence of progressively higher cycle peaks, each one separated by corrections and extended accumulation periods, that culminate in a Cycle 5 top of $153. Macro Targets For XRP TARA’s projection framework begins with a pricepoint that is already settled history. Cycle 1, which she noted as complete, produced a top price of $3.65. This is relating to XRP’s current all-time high registered in July 2025. That confirmed peak is the anchor for the entire projection. Each subsequent cycle target is derived using Fibonacci extension methodology applied to XRP’s price structure on the larger timeframe. Related Reading: Why The XRP Price Might Crash To $0.87 Before The Bear Market Ends The next three cycles form the bridge between XRP’s current price and the psychologically significant $100 threshold. TARA projected Cycle 2 will peak near $8.68, applying the 0.618 Fibonacci extension to the range established by Cycle 1. Cycle 3 follows with a projected top of approximately $22.50, and Cycle 4 extends the same 0.618 Fibonacci sequence to a peak around $59. When Will The Altcoin Reach $100? The most notable outcome from the projection is where the $100 level appears. According to the analyst, XRP does not reach triple digits in the next one or two cycles. Instead, the milestone only comes into view in Cycle 5, where the projected top is at $153.  Related Reading: First Bullish Wick Appears On XRP Weekly Chart, And This Analyst Says It Will Send Price To $21.5 There is no specific timeline attached to when XRP could cross $100. The analysis is centered strictly on price progression across macro cycles, leaving out any time-based predictions. The analyst also made it clear that each upward move would be followed by pullbacks, describing the journey as one that unfolds through many waves, repeated corrections, and a span of several years. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.52, and the $153 price target represents a gain of more than 10,000% from today. However, predictions about XRP breaking above $100 are not new among crypto analysts. In fact, the idea has been circulating for months. Some projections have been really extreme, with one analyst even arguing that XRP could reach $100 before Bitcoin climbs to $1 million.  On the other side of the debate, a few market commentators have pushed back strongly on this $100 price projection. Some crypto participants have pointed to the scale of inflows required for XRP to hit $100, noting that it would imply a multi-trillion-dollar market capitalization that exceeds the largest companies in the world. Even Ripple’s CTO has publicly cast doubt on the likelihood of XRP reaching $100 in the near term. 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