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"caption": "Ethereum derivatives activity is flashing a fresh signal on Binance, where open interest measured in ETH terms has reached a new all-time high. The move comes as traders reassess Ethereum after a steep drawdown, even as macro and geopolitical uncertainty continue to suppress broader risk appetite. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said the market has become “increasingly difficult to interpret,” with investors and institutions operating against a backdrop of elevated uncertainty tied to tensions between the United States and Iran. That uncertainty is not happening in isolation. According to the analyst, deteriorating economic prospects have made large-scale capital deployment a riskier decision, naturally limiting the willingness of market participants to add exposure. Still, Ethereum futures are showing renewed signs of speculative demand. Binance Ethereum Open Interest Hits New High Darkfost said speculative activity has recently started to revive in derivatives, with Ethereum standing out. The analyst noted that ETH is currently trading roughly 67% below its previous all-time high and has moved into what he described as “an area of extreme oversold conditions” over the past few days. Related Reading: Three Wallets Withdraw $122M In Ethereum From FalconX And Kraken: Is Tom Lee Buying Again? That weakness appears to have drawn in traders looking to rebuild exposure after months of pressure. “Some traders have not overlooked this opportunity and have chosen to increase their exposure despite the risks,” Darkfost wrote. The result, according to the post, is a record level of Ethereum positioning on Binance. “As a result, Binance has just recorded a new all time high in Ethereum Open Interest (ETH value), with nearly 3.7 million ETH currently positioned in futures contracts on the platform,” the analyst said. The figure is notable because it measures positioning in ETH terms rather than only in dollar value. After a large price decline, dollar-denominated open interest can look subdued even when the number of ETH contracts being carried by traders is rising. In this case, the increase suggests that speculative exposure to Ethereum is growing despite the weaker spot price environment. Binance’s role in that activity has also expanded. Darkfost said the exchange’s share of total Ethereum open interest has risen above 44%, reinforcing its dominant position in the ETH derivatives market. Traders Shift After Months Of Seller Dominance The more important question is whether the record open interest reflects bottom-fishing, leveraged hedging, or a more durable change in market positioning. Darkfost’s post points to at least some improvement on the buy side. Related Reading: Ethereum OG Nails The Crash: Sells $188M, Buys Back Lower “Following Ethereum’s sharp devaluation, traders appear to be gradually returning to the buy side,” the analyst wrote. “On Binance, the weekly average Taker Buy/Sell Ratio has increased from 0.95 to 1.0, reflecting a rebalancing of flows after several months of seller dominance.” That move from 0.95 to 1.0 does not indicate aggressive upside chasing by itself. Rather, it suggests that flows have moved closer to balance after an extended period in which sellers had the upper hand. In futures markets, that shift can matter because open interest rising alongside improving taker flow often shows that traders are no longer only using derivatives to press downside momentum. The backdrop remains fragile, however. Higher open interest can amplify moves in either direction, especially when positioning builds during periods of macro stress. If the long side is indeed rebuilding, the market may become more sensitive to forced deleveraging if ETH fails to hold the levels attracting dip buyers. Darkfost framed the setup cautiously, noting that Ethereum sentiment has “deteriorated significantly in recent months.” Even so, the analyst said more investors now appear willing to take the risk of rebuilding exposure, “particularly on the long side,” after a prolonged stretch of dominant selling pressure across futures markets. At press time, ETH traded at $1,658. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "TLDR\nBA Labs, acting on behalf of the Core Council, proposes the following parameter changes to the LITE-PSM-USDC-A:\n\n\nIncrease LITE-PSM-USDC-A buf from 400M to 800M\n\n\nIncrease LITE-PSM-USDC-A gap from 400M to 800M\n\n\nContext\nFor a complete overview of the technical scope of the LITE-PSM-USDC-A, refer to this forum post:\n\nLitePSM (LITE-PSM-USDC-A)\t: Introduction and Overview\n\nThe migration from PSM-USDC-A to the LITE-PSM-USDC-A has been thoroughly monitored through different analyses, refer to the following forum posts:\n\nLitePSM Migration Period Analyses\n\nThe previous parameter changes can be found in the following forum posts:\n\n\nLITE-PSM-USDC-A Phase 1 (Test Period): Proposed Parameters\n\n\nLITE-PSM-USDC-A Phase 2 (Major Migration): Proposed Parameters\n\n\nLITE-PSM-USDC-A Phase 3 (Final Migration): Proposed Parameters\n\n\nLITE-PSM-USDC-A has been live for ~23 months and has settled into the role of the dominant USDC ↔ DAI venue inside the Sky stablecoin system. The contract has processed 1,027,167 swap events since deployment, with current USDC reserves at 4.13 B against a buf of 400 M.\nThe last buf recalibration was performed on 2024-10-07 (phase 3), when reserves stood at ~1.98 B. Since then USDC reserves have more than doubled (+108%) while liquidity-buffer parameters have remained flat. Reserves first reached the ~4 B level in April 2025 and have hovered at or above it since, yet buf and gap have stayed at 400 M throughout making a recalibration overdue.\nThis post proposes a methodology to size buf and gap using on-chain history of swap sizes, daily flows, and reserve trajectory.\nOn buf and gap\nThe LitePSM holds two independent buckets, and the two swap directions draw on different ones:\n\nRefresh capacity\nA SellGem swap is served instantly from the pre-minted DAI bucket (buf). As that bucket depletes, the fill keeper mints fresh DAI to top it back up but minting is capped by the ilk’s debt ceiling (line), and the DC-IAM raises line by at most gap every ttl. With ttl = 12 h, the line can step up twice per day, so:\n\n\nRefresh capacity = 2 × gap per day: the rate at which the buffer can be replenished, i.e. the sustained daily SellGem throughput the PSM can support before it runs dry.\n\n\nSingle-day capacity = buf + 2 × gap: a single day, starting from a full buffer: the whole bucket plus that day’s two refills.\n\n\nAt the current buf = gap = 400 M, single-day capacity is 0.4 B + 0.8 B = 1.2 B; the heaviest observed SellGem day (1.75 B) exceeds it. At the proposed buf = gap = 800 M, single-day capacity rises to 0.8 B + 1.6 B = 2.4 B, clearing every day on record.\nEmpirical observations\nUSDC reserves trajectory\n\nThe buf/reserve ratio at the last intentional sizing decision (phase 3) was ~20 %. USDC reserve growth since then has eroded that ratio.\n\nSingle-swap distribution (SellGem)\nBecause only the SellGem direction is constrained by buf, the relevant tail is the largest SellGem swaps. Only 2 SellGem swaps in ~23 months have exceeded the current 400 M buf.\n\n\nDaily flow distribution\nLast-90-day distribution of daily one-way volumes:\n\n\nThe most stressful single SellGem day in the last 90 days drained ~1.75 B of DAI. With current gap = 400 M and ttl = 12 h, the line-refresh capacity is only 2 × gap = 800 M / day which is below even the P90 of recent daily SellGem volume, and far below the heaviest days.\nLargest single-day reserve drawdowns\nThe metric that gap must keep pace with is the largest single-day SellGem volume. The gross amount of pre-minted DAI withdrawn in a day, which fill must replenish:\n\n1.75 B (2026-05-18)\n1.60 B (2025-06-20)\n1.41 B (2025-10-21)\n1.41 B (2026-03-05)\n1.31 B (2026-01-13)\n\nAll five exceed the current 800 M / day refresh capacity (2 × gap at gap = 400 M). At the proposed gap = 800 M, refresh capacity rises to 1.6 B / day, and combined same-day serving capacity (buf + 2 × gap = 2.4 B) covers every day on record.\n\nMethodology\nWe anchor the new buf & gap to three independent sizing lenses and recommend the maximum, since each captures a different failure mode.\nThe different methodologies allow to keep continuity with prior governance reasoning (A), ensure the main UX promise of the LitePSM (gas-cheap pre-minted swaps) holds even on tail trades (B), and ensures the DC-IAM mechanism does not become the binding constraint on legitimate flow (C).\nMethod A - Reserve proportional\nReplicate the 20.2 % buf : reserve ratio that BA Labs implicitly endorsed at the phase-3 recalibration (the last time buf was set as a deliberate function of reserve, rather than left flat).\nbuf_A = 0.202 × target_reserve\nMethod B - Largest historical swap coverage\nSize buf so that the largest historically observed single swap, scaled into the new reserve regime, can be served from pre-minted USDS without on-the-fly minting. The largest SellGem on record (543 M) was 14.4 % of contemporaneous reserves.\nbuf_B = 0.144 × target_reserve\nMethod C - Daily flow throughput\nbuf and gap together must let the line refresh fast enough to absorb a heavy one-way day without throttling. With ttl = 12 h, daily refresh capacity = 2 × gap. We require this capacity to cover the recent distribution of max one-way daily volume (max(buy, sell) per day), scaled to the new reserve regime.\ngap_C ≥ (P_x_max_oneway × scale_factor) / 2\nwhere scale_factor = target_reserve / current_reserve. Using max-one-way rather than buy-only makes the test direction-agnostic: a heavy sell day stresses the system as much as a heavy buy day.\nResults\n\nRecommendation for 4 B reserve target\n\nProposed: buf = gap = 800 M, line = 10 B, ttl = 12 h\nRecommendation for 5 B reserve target\n\nProposed: buf = gap = 1B, line = 10 B, ttl = 12 h\nParameter Recommendation\nBA Labs, in our capacity as Core Council Risk Advisor, recommends the following parameter changes to the Core Facilitators and include them in the next Atlas edit, modifying A.3.3.2.7.1.1.2 - Lite Peg Stability Module Parameter Values:\n\nbuf: Set to 800,000,000\nDC-IAM gap: Set to 800,000,000\n\nAtlas Authorization\nThe recommendation must be approved by the Core Facilitator.\nCC: @Jansky @ldr\n 1 post - 1 participant\n Read full topic",
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"caption": "The GeForce NOW summer sale kicked off today with limited-time savings of up to $70 off a 12-month membership, making now the perfect time to upgrade to get the best of the cloud and see just how far Ultimate gaming can go. PC gamers are driven by one thing: the love of the game. But […]",
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"caption": "Bitcoin’s investor sentiment is in ruins, but buried inside the wreckage, a technical signal that has appeared only at the most consequential turning points in Bitcoin’s history has just fired again. This technical argument, which is built around Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index, is because the indicator has fallen to its lowest daily reading in four years, a level last seen near the 2022 bottom before BTC began its climb from $15,500 to $70,000. Bitcoin’s RSI Is Back In A Rare Bottom Zone The Relative Strength Index is among the most used momentum indicators, measuring the speed and magnitude of price movements on a scale from 0 to 100. Readings below 30 indicate oversold conditions. At its lowest point during the recent selloff over the weekend, the daily RSI fell to as low as 21.8, and the reading is still around the mid-20s at the time of writing. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Gives Timeframe For When The Bitcoin Price Will Hit $200,000 That places this reading among the lowest on record for the daily timeframe, and that is why a crypto analyst that goes by the name Crypto Tice on the social media platform believes the Bitcoin price action may be looking at something much bigger than a normal oversold bounce. As shown in the chart below, the red and orange zones line up with some of Bitcoin’s most painful periods, including the 2011 bottom, the 2015 bear-market low, the 2018-2019 correction, the 2022 collapse, and now the 2026 slow correction. In each case, the bottom appeared when the Bitcoin price had already endured a major decline, and that is the same setup happening right now. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @CryptoTice_ On X Why A 200% Target Is Possible For Bitcoin Bitcoin fell below $60,000 for the first time since 2024 and is currently down by about 50% from its October 2025 peak above $126,000. The leading cryptocurrency is now trading between $61,000 and $63,000. Interestingly, the main comparison of where Bitcoin goes from here is the 2022 bottom. Back then, Bitcoin’s RSI reached deeply oversold levels as the price collapsed to around $15,500, but the low eventually became the base for a rally to $70,000 in 2024. That move represented a gain of more than 350% from the cycle bottom, and it eventually rolled on to its all-time high in October 2025. Related Reading: Dogecoin Is One Step Away From The Same Pattern That Triggered 2021’s 29,000% Rally, What Next? If Bitcoin were to form a similar bottom around the current $60,000 zone, a 200% rally would place the price at a target of $180,000. A move matching the full 2022-to-2024 recovery would imply even higher levels above $200,000. The present market also has a different background from 2022. Bitcoin now has spot ETFs, deeper institutional involvement, and large corporate holders that are influencing sentiment. Speaking of ETFs, Spot Bitcoin ETFs have resumed their streak of outflows, which complicates any bottom prediction right now. The technical signal from the RSI is strong, but the Bitcoin price needs demand to turn the signal into a sustained rally. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com",
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"caption": "Morgan Stanley’s head of digital asset strategy, Amy Oldenberg, said Bitcoin reaching $1 million is possible over time, while cautioning that a move of that scale would likely require either a long adoption cycle or a major dislocation in traditional markets. Speaking with Natalie Brunell on Coin Stories, Oldenberg framed the next phase of Bitcoin adoption less as a sudden “J curve” and more as a gradual institutional buildout, led by product access, adviser education, custody infrastructure and client demand. Her comments come as Morgan Stanley continues expanding its digital asset footprint through its spot ETF, wealth management and e*Trade presence. Morgan Stanley Exec Sees Bitcoin Grinding Higher Oldenberg avoided making a direct price target, but she did address the idea of Bitcoin eventually reaching seven figures. “I don’t see why we couldn’t,” she said, referring to a $1 million Bitcoin. “Of everything I’ve seen in my life I will believe anything that it’s possible.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Capitulation Signal Flashes As $12B Leaves The Network Still, she pushed back against the idea that such a move should be expected quickly or without broader consequences. “Anything that extreme needs to happen over time,” Oldenberg said. “Because if something happens that’s that extreme in my mind it means there was some other extreme event that happened.” That distinction shaped much of her broader outlook. Asked what Bitcoin adoption might look like five or ten years from now, Oldenberg said she expects continued growth through 2030, but not necessarily a vertical repricing. “I don’t think you’re going to see just some incredible J curve that like we hit 2027 and it just totally takes off. I think it’ll be very similar to what we’ve lived through already where you’ve just continued to see more entrants, they get educated, they figure it out, we move up, and we kind of grind higher here.” Her comments reflect the tension now defining institutional Bitcoin: more access, more credibility and more infrastructure, but still a market that has not fully decoupled from risk-asset behavior. Oldenberg noted that Bitcoin continues to confuse some clients because it is often pitched as a real asset or neutral reserve asset, yet has not always traded like gold during periods of macro stress. Adviser Education Remains A Bottleneck Morgan Stanley’s own model portfolio guidance remains measured. Oldenberg said the firm has recommended BTC allocations of 0% to 2% in some portfolios and 2% to 4% in more aggressive ones, depending on the client’s risk profile. But she said adviser adoption continues to lag client interest, largely because the product set and the asset itself still require education. The firm’s recently launched Bitcoin ETP, MSBT, had what Oldenberg described as the best first-day ETF debut in Morgan Stanley’s history. She said the product was designed to bring an institutional construct to the market, launching with a 14 basis point management fee and a custody setup involving Coinbase and BNY. The aim, she said, was to push more traditional financial infrastructure into Bitcoin products rather than simply replicate existing offerings. Related Reading: Bitcoin Back At Production Cost: Analyst Says Best Value Zone Starts Here Oldenberg also highlighted the distinction between owning Bitcoin directly and holding shares of a Bitcoin ETF, a point she said still requires education. “I love the people that tell me like I have exposure to Bitcoin so if something goes wrong, you know, I have Bitcoin,” she said. “I’m like no you don’t have Bitcoin. You have shares of a Bitcoin ETF that offer you price exposure to Bitcoin.” That distinction matters as Morgan Stanley begins offering more services around Bitcoin exposure. Oldenberg said clients who move Bitcoin exposure into an ETP on the wealth platform may be treated as wealth clients and, depending on the size of their holdings, can potentially access lending against the position. She cited a “release rate of 50%” on the Bitcoin ETF, meaning the firm can lend up to half the value of the product. Banks Still Need Better Regulatory Treatment Oldenberg said banks are not avoiding Bitcoin because of hostility toward the asset, but because capital treatment, regulatory obligations and balance sheet efficiency still determine how they allocate resources. For banks to hold Bitcoin directly or use it more broadly as collateral, she said the environment must become more supportive. She also warned that crypto assets are too often grouped together despite serving different purposes. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP, she said, should not be treated as interchangeable simply because they sit under the same “crypto” label. At press time, BTC traded at $62,825. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "The Ethereum price decline seems to have opened up the opportunity for fast accumulation among investors over the last week. This comes as data shows a significant amount of the cryptocurrency actually being moved out of the wallets of centralized exchanges. Historically, a move like this has pointed to investor buying rather than selling, suggesting that investors are taking advantage of the red month of June to actually fill up their bags. The Numbers Say Ethereum Investors Are Choosing To Buy Recent data from CryptoQuant, an on-chain data aggregator, shows that Ethereum investors are moving into accumulation mode for the month of June. This comes as the cryptocurrency started out the month with hundreds of thousands of ETH being moved out of centralized exchanges and presumably to private wallets. Related Reading: Dogecoin Will ‘Pump Hard’ After This Happens, Analyst Clocks Generational Entry The data shows that Ethereum had started out the month of June with 3.87 million ETH. However, just one week into the new month, there had been over 475,000 ETH withdrawn from centralized exchange wallets. This move was not only felt on one crypto exchange, but with notable declines coming in from major exchanges. The top losers included the likes of Binance, Bitfinex, OKX, and Gemini exchange, all recording major outflows during this time. This move also comes as the Ethereum price has declined below the $2,000 support, suggesting that investors are looking at these prices as low levels to get into the cryptocurrency. Buying ETH In A Red Month The month of June has historically been a red month for the Ethereum price, so the argument could be made that investors are using this opportunity to load up on the cryptocurrency. In its decade in the market, the ETH price has only closed June in the green a total of three times, data from the CryptoQuant website shows. Related Reading: Has The Bitcoin Price Crash Ended Or Is This Just The Beginning? Analyst Answers All of the other years have seen the digital asset end the month of June with varying degrees of losses. This brought the average return for the month for Ethereum to -7.59%, second only to September’s average of -10.2%. The median returns come out to -8.64% for June and -12.7% for September. This means that June is the second-worst-performing month for the Ethereum price. Keeping in line with historical performance, the ETH price is already down by over 16% at the time of this writing, suggesting that it could lead to another red close for the digital asset. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "On-chain data reveals Cardano has observed increased transactions involving dormant coins recently, suggesting that the price decline has caused long-term holders to become active again. Cardano Has Seen Spikes In Age Consumed Recently As pointed out by on-chain analytics firm Santiment in an X post, large dormant Cardano wallets have lately been on the move. The indicator of relevance here is the “Age Consumed,” which measures the total number of tokens being moved on the blockchain multiplied by the amount of time since they last moved. Related Reading: Bitcoin Back At Production Cost: Analyst Says Best Value Zone Starts Here When the value of this metric is high, it means the network is observing the movement of a large number of old tokens. On the other hand, it being low suggests coins being involved in a transaction are the ones that were purchased relatively recently (or alternatively, if old tokens are being shifted, they don’t involve a significant count). Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the Age Consumed for Cardano over the past month: As displayed in the above graph, the Cardano Age Consumed stayed at relatively low levels during May, but the price plunge in June has been accompanied by a few spikes in the indicator. Interestingly, the spikes only started halfway through the drawdown, meaning that they likely came as a reaction to the bearish action, rather than something that kicked off the decline itself. These spikes naturally imply that some long-term holders have decided to become active again. This could reflect panic selling from resolute hands, or it may correspond to activity of some other kind; the exact intent is hard to gauge from the Age Consumed metric alone. In the chart, Santiment has also attached the data of another indicator called the Mean Dollar Invested Age. This indicator calculates the age of the average dollar invested in the cryptocurrency. As is visible in the graph, the Mean Dollar Invested Age rose steadily through May, implying that the market cap of Cardano was consistently getting older. As the recent spikes in the Age Consumed have appeared, however, the metric’s trajectory has been disturbed. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stablecoin Ratio Drops To Extreme Low—What It Means For BTC While there hasn’t been an outright reversal in course, the Mean Dollar Invested Age has still witnessed a slowdown in growth, indicating that the movement of dormant coins has been significant enough to have an impact. A particularly strong pause in the indicator came alongside June 9th’s Age Consumed spike, which was the largest one on the Cardano network since April. “Historically, clusters of Age Consumed spikes paired with a pause (or downturn) in Mean Dollar Invested Age have often appeared around key market turning points,” explained the analytics firm. ADA Price At the time of writing, Cardano is trading around $0.16, down more than 26% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "On-chain data shows the Bitcoin PnL Index is currently in a transition phase that has historically led into bottoms, but not immediately. Bitcoin PnL Index Has Been Going Down Recently In a new post on X, community analyst Maartunn has talked the latest trend in the Bitcoin PnL Index, which combines the data of a few key on-chain metrics into one to produce a single valuation indicator for BTC. Related Reading: Dormant Cardano Whales Suddenly Come Alive: Is A Turning Point Near? The metrics include the MVRV Ratio, NUPL, and LTH/STH SOPR. The former two deal with unrealized investor gains/losses while the last one is related to the gains/losses that holders are realizing through their transactions. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 365-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin PnL Index over the history of the cryptocurrency: As displayed in the above graph, the 365-day MA of the Bitcoin PnL Index has been following a consistent downtrend since Q4 2025, reflecting the bearish market shift. So far, the indicator hasn’t left the positive territory, which suggests that, at least from the perspective of the metric, the cryptocurrency hasn’t yet become “undervalued.” In the chart, it’s visible that historical bear market bottoms have generally occurred as the PnL Index has dropped into the red zone. Given this, it’s possible that a similar trend will play out in this cycle as well. Though, something to keep in mind is that the current cycle has already differed from the previous ones in the bull market phase. Past cycles observed a single main peak in the PnL Index coinciding with the market top. This cycle, however, witnessed the formation of two similarly sized peaks occurring alongside the Q1 and Q4 2025 tops. As such, it now remains to be seen how the indicator’s trajectory will look by the time this bear market has played out and whether it will be anything like that seen in the previous cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Back At Production Cost: Analyst Says Best Value Zone Starts Here In some other news, the recent bearish price action has meant that the Bitcoin short-term holder (STH) whales have fallen into a deep state of loss, as highlighted by the analyst in another X post. The STH whales refer to the BTC investors carrying at least 1,000 tokens in their wallet who bought into the cryptocurrency within the past 155 days. Below is a chart that shows how the net profit/loss held by these humongous investors is looking right now. “Short-Term Holder Whales are now sitting on -$16.4B in unrealized P&L, the deepest level of stress seen in this cycle,” noted Maartunn. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $61,700, down over 6% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "GitHub has announced what it said are \"breaking changes\" coming to npm version 12, one of which turns off install scripts by default to combat software supply chain threats.\n\nThe changes aim to combat attack techniques that abuse the \"npm install\" command to trigger the execution of malicious code using npm lifecycle hooks. \"Npm install\" is used to download and install all the necessary",
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"caption": "Ethereum price started a downside correction below $1,665. ETH must clear the $1,650 and $1,720 resistance levels to continue higher. Ethereum started a downside correction below the $1,650 zone. The price is trading below $1,650 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a declining channel forming with resistance at $1,640 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it stays below the $1,720 zone. Ethereum Price Holds Support Ethereum price failed to stay above the $1,680 zone and extended its decline, like Bitcoin. ETH price gained pace for a move below the $1,665 and $1,650 levels. The price even tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,505 swing low to the $1,720 swing high. However, the bulls were active near the $1,610 level. Besides, there is a declining channel forming with resistance at $1,640 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Ethereum price is now trading below $1,650 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. If the bulls remain in action above $1,610, the price could attempt another increase. Immediate resistance is seen near the $1,650 level. The first key resistance is near the $1,665 level. The next major resistance is near the $1,680 level. A clear move above the $1,680 resistance might send the price toward the $1,720 resistance. An upside break above the $1,720 region might call for more gains in the coming days. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $1,780 resistance zone or even $1,800 in the near term. Downside Continuation In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $1,650 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $1,610 level. The first major support sits near the $1,590 zone or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,505 swing low to the $1,720 swing high. A clear move below the $1,590 support might push the price toward the $1,550 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $1,520 region. The main support could be $1,500. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $1,610 Major Resistance Level – $1,665",
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"caption": "Bitcoin is struggling below $62,000 as selling pressure and fear continue to define the market environment. The uncertainty is real — but top analyst Woominkyu has published an on-chain analysis that reveals what was actually happening during the most intense phase of the decline. And the picture it paints looks considerably different from the panic narrative that dominated market commentary at the time. Related Reading: XRP Leverage Flush Hits Bybit While Binance Holds The Line – Analyst Explains Rare Setup The on-chain data tells a story in two distinct acts. The first act was the trigger. On June 2 and 3, older dormant wallets moved massive supply to exchanges — the Inflow Coin Days Destroyed metric peaked at 2.16 million, reflecting coins that had been held for extended periods suddenly being moved toward the sell side simultaneously. That supply shock forced the price down from $71,000, creating the conditions for the breakdown that followed. The second act is where the data becomes most analytically significant. At the $60,000 to $61,000 bottom, the Exchange Whale Ratio surged to 61.6%. Confirming that the largest market participants completely dominated buy-side activity during the most fearful period of the decline. While retail participants were panicking and selling into weakness, whales were executing an aggressive and systematic accumulation campaign at the exact prices that fear had created. The divergence between what retail did and what smart money did at $60,000 is the signal Woominkyu’s analysis is built around. 11,422 BTC Swept Off Exchanges in 5 Days The supply drain that followed the whale accumulation completes the picture that Woominkyu’s analysis assembles. Over the five days following the $60,000 to $61,000 bottom, whales withdrew 11,422 BTC — approximately $700 million — off exchanges and into cold storage. The Exchange Netflow turned deeply negative as the coins absorbed during the panic phase were immediately moved away from the venues where they could be resold. Bitcoin price vs. Exchange Whale Ratio | Source: Woominkyu on CryptoQuant The behavioral sequence is precise and deliberate. Whales bought aggressively at the bottom using the panic selling that retail participants generated. Then they withdrew those coins from exchanges entirely — removing them from the immediately available sell-side supply and placing them in cold storage where they cannot re-enter the market quickly. The result is a liquid supply drain of significant scale. Over $700 million worth of Bitcoin that was briefly available on exchanges during the most fearful period of the decline has been swept into long-term custody in less than a week. The order book is thinner than it was before the drop. The supply that retail sold into the bottom is now held by participants who have demonstrated through their behavior that they have no intention of selling it back at current prices. Woominkyu’s verdict follows directly from the sequence. The wealth transfer from weak hands to strong hands is complete. The $60,000 to $61,000 range has been validated as a genuine institutional accumulation zone — defended at scale, absorbed systematically, and immediately removed from liquid circulation. That behavioral fingerprint establishes the floor from which the next leg higher becomes structurally possible. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes One Of Its Rarest Demand Signals In Six Years – Details Bitcoin Clings To February Support Bitcoin remains under significant pressure on the daily timeframe. The price is trading near $61,400 after suffering one of its sharpest declines of 2026. The chart shows a decisive breakdown below the critical $64,000–$66,000 support zone that had previously acted as a floor during the February-March consolidation. Once that area failed, sellers quickly pushed BTC into the lower end of its broader range, triggering a rapid move toward the psychologically important $60,000 level. Bitcoin trading below key level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView The current structure is technically fragile. Bitcoin is trading below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with all three trending downward. This alignment confirms that bearish momentum remains dominant across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes. Notably, the recent recovery attempt from the $60,000 area has been relatively weak. Producing only a modest bounce despite elevated trading volume during the selloff. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes One Of Its Rarest Demand Signals In Six Years – Details From a market structure perspective, the most important observation is that Bitcoin is now revisiting the same support zone that produced the February low. That area between roughly $60,000 and $62,000 has become the last major defense line preventing a deeper retracement. A sustained hold above this region could allow price to stabilize and potentially build a base. A decisive breakdown would leave little historical support until significantly lower levels. Increasing the risk of another volatility expansion phase. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "Bitcoin is showing renewed signs of on-chain capitulation, according to Axel Adler Jr.’s latest Adler AM Bitcoin Morning Brief, as realized capitalization contracts and loss-taking sales dominate market activity. The setup matters because two independent measures: Realized Cap Net Position 30D Change and adjusted SOPR are now pointing to the same stress regime. In the June 10 brief, Adler said Bitcoin’s Realized Cap has declined by roughly $12 billion from its mid-May peak, falling from about $1.087 trillion to $1.075 trillion. The 30-day percentage change in Realized Cap has dropped to -1.1%, marking the first time since mid-March that capital outflows have reached that level. “Capital is leaving the Bitcoin network, and participant behavior confirms a capitulation regime – sales are being made at a loss,” Adler wrote. “This brief examines how close the current stress is to the March extremes and what needs to happen for the regime to change.” Bitcoin Realized Cap Outflows Accelerate Realized Cap measures the aggregate value of Bitcoin based on the price at which each coin last moved, making it a useful proxy for whether capital is entering or leaving the network. In Adler’s framework, the recent move is not just a mild deterioration. The pace of contraction has accelerated sharply. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stablecoin Ratio Drops To Extreme Low—What It Means For BTC As recently as June 1, the Realized Cap Net Position 30D Change stood at -0.15%. By June 8, it had fallen to -1.1%. Over the same period, Bitcoin’s price dropped from $82,000 to $63,000, a 23% decline. Adler compared the current setup with the March capitulation phase, when the same Realized Cap measure fell as low as -2.4%. That leaves room for further stress if outflows continue to deepen, though the current reading is already severe enough to place the market back into a pronounced negative regime. “The current pace of outflows is already comparable to the beginning of the March capitulation, when the indicator reached -2.4%,” the brief noted. “That means there is still room for further deterioration. The first positive signal would be stabilization in the 30D Change near zero, followed by a turn upward.” Loss-Taking Sales Confirm The Stress The second major signal comes from adjusted SOPR, or aSOPR, which tracks whether coins moved on-chain are being sold at a profit or a loss. A reading above 1 indicates profit-taking. A reading below 1 indicates loss realization. According to Adler, Bitcoin’s aSOPR SMA-30 broke below the critical 1.0 threshold on May 28 and has remained below it for 13 consecutive days. The current reading of 0.987 implies that, on average, each coin moved is being sold at a loss of about 1.3%. Related Reading: Bitcoin At A Discount? Coinbase Exec Says Institutions And Govts Are Buying That makes the current decline more than a price correction in Adler’s reading. The structure of selling has shifted. Market participants are not merely distributing gains; they are realizing losses into weakness. “A prolonged period with aSOPR below 1 is a classic marker of weak hands being flushed out,” Adler wrote. “Until aSOPR turns upward and begins to retest 1.0, sellers remain in control.” The significance lies in the alignment between both indicators. Realized Cap shows the macro-level capital drain, while aSOPR explains the internal mechanics of that drain. In Adler’s words, “Both charts describe the same process from different angles. Realized Cap captures the macro picture – capital is leaving the network. aSOPR shows the internal mechanics of that move – the outflow is being driven not by profit-taking, but by forced selling at a loss.” Adler’s brief identifies a clear condition for a regime change: aSOPR needs to reverse upward and reclaim 1.0, while Realized Cap outflows need to stabilize and move back toward zero. Without those two signals, the market remains in what he describes as a capitulationary regime. The risk is that the current outflow cycle intensifies toward the March extreme near -2.4%. Such a move would imply a second wave of capitulation and could keep pressure on Bitcoin’s price. At press time, BTC traded at $61,828. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "XRP price started a downside correction below the $1.150 zone. The price is now showing bearish signs and might decline further below $1.080. XRP price started a downside correction after it failed to stay above the $1.1550 zone. The price is now trading below $1.1350 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $1.120 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it stays below $1.1350. XRP Price Turns Red XRP price struggled to stay above $1.1550 and started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price dipped below the $1.150 and $1.1420 levels. The price even traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1.050 swing low to the $1.1862 high. However, the bulls are currently protecting the $1.10 support zone. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $1.120 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. The price is now trading below $1.1350 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. If there is a fresh upward move, the price might face resistance near the $1.120 level. The first major resistance is near the $1.1350 level, above which the price could rise and test $1.1420. A clear move above the $1.1420 resistance might send the price toward the $1.1550 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $1.1650 resistance. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near $1.1840. Downside Continuation? If XRP fails to clear the $1.1350 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $1.10 level. The next major support is near the $1.080 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1.050 swing low to the $1.1862 high. If there is a downside break and a close below the $1.080 level, the price might continue to decline toward $1.0650. The next major support sits near the $1.050 zone, below which the price could continue lower toward $1.020. Any more losses might call for a test of $1.00. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $1.1000 and $1.080. Major Resistance Levels – $1.1200 and $1.1350.",
"headline": "XRP Price Troubles Aren’t Over Yet As Downside Risks Mount",
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"caption": "Bitcoin is showing renewed signs of on-chain capitulation, according to Axel Adler Jr.’s latest Adler AM Bitcoin Morning Brief, as realized capitalization contracts and loss-taking sales dominate market activity. The setup matters because two independent measures: Realized Cap Net Position 30D Change and adjusted SOPR are now pointing to the same stress regime. In the June 10 brief, Adler said Bitcoin’s Realized Cap has declined by roughly $12 billion from its mid-May peak, falling from about $1.087 trillion to $1.075 trillion. The 30-day percentage change in Realized Cap has dropped to -1.1%, marking the first time since mid-March that capital outflows have reached that level. “Capital is leaving the Bitcoin network, and participant behavior confirms a capitulation regime – sales are being made at a loss,” Adler wrote. “This brief examines how close the current stress is to the March extremes and what needs to happen for the regime to change.” Bitcoin Realized Cap Outflows Accelerate Realized Cap measures the aggregate value of Bitcoin based on the price at which each coin last moved, making it a useful proxy for whether capital is entering or leaving the network. In Adler’s framework, the recent move is not just a mild deterioration. The pace of contraction has accelerated sharply. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stablecoin Ratio Drops To Extreme Low—What It Means For BTC As recently as June 1, the Realized Cap Net Position 30D Change stood at -0.15%. By June 8, it had fallen to -1.1%. Over the same period, Bitcoin’s price dropped from $82,000 to $63,000, a 23% decline. Adler compared the current setup with the March capitulation phase, when the same Realized Cap measure fell as low as -2.4%. That leaves room for further stress if outflows continue to deepen, though the current reading is already severe enough to place the market back into a pronounced negative regime. “The current pace of outflows is already comparable to the beginning of the March capitulation, when the indicator reached -2.4%,” the brief noted. “That means there is still room for further deterioration. The first positive signal would be stabilization in the 30D Change near zero, followed by a turn upward.” Loss-Taking Sales Confirm The Stress The second major signal comes from adjusted SOPR, or aSOPR, which tracks whether coins moved on-chain are being sold at a profit or a loss. A reading above 1 indicates profit-taking. A reading below 1 indicates loss realization. According to Adler, Bitcoin’s aSOPR SMA-30 broke below the critical 1.0 threshold on May 28 and has remained below it for 13 consecutive days. The current reading of 0.987 implies that, on average, each coin moved is being sold at a loss of about 1.3%. Related Reading: Bitcoin At A Discount? Coinbase Exec Says Institutions And Govts Are Buying That makes the current decline more than a price correction in Adler’s reading. The structure of selling has shifted. Market participants are not merely distributing gains; they are realizing losses into weakness. “A prolonged period with aSOPR below 1 is a classic marker of weak hands being flushed out,” Adler wrote. “Until aSOPR turns upward and begins to retest 1.0, sellers remain in control.” The significance lies in the alignment between both indicators. Realized Cap shows the macro-level capital drain, while aSOPR explains the internal mechanics of that drain. In Adler’s words, “Both charts describe the same process from different angles. Realized Cap captures the macro picture – capital is leaving the network. aSOPR shows the internal mechanics of that move – the outflow is being driven not by profit-taking, but by forced selling at a loss.” Adler’s brief identifies a clear condition for a regime change: aSOPR needs to reverse upward and reclaim 1.0, while Realized Cap outflows need to stabilize and move back toward zero. Without those two signals, the market remains in what he describes as a capitulationary regime. The risk is that the current outflow cycle intensifies toward the March extreme near -2.4%. Such a move would imply a second wave of capitulation and could keep pressure on Bitcoin’s price. At press time, BTC traded at $61,828. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "Bitcoin is struggling below $62,000 as selling pressure and fear continue to define the market environment. The uncertainty is real — but top analyst Woominkyu has published an on-chain analysis that reveals what was actually happening during the most intense phase of the decline. And the picture it paints looks considerably different from the panic narrative that dominated market commentary at the time. Related Reading: XRP Leverage Flush Hits Bybit While Binance Holds The Line – Analyst Explains Rare Setup The on-chain data tells a story in two distinct acts. The first act was the trigger. On June 2 and 3, older dormant wallets moved massive supply to exchanges — the Inflow Coin Days Destroyed metric peaked at 2.16 million, reflecting coins that had been held for extended periods suddenly being moved toward the sell side simultaneously. That supply shock forced the price down from $71,000, creating the conditions for the breakdown that followed. The second act is where the data becomes most analytically significant. At the $60,000 to $61,000 bottom, the Exchange Whale Ratio surged to 61.6%. Confirming that the largest market participants completely dominated buy-side activity during the most fearful period of the decline. While retail participants were panicking and selling into weakness, whales were executing an aggressive and systematic accumulation campaign at the exact prices that fear had created. The divergence between what retail did and what smart money did at $60,000 is the signal Woominkyu’s analysis is built around. 11,422 BTC Swept Off Exchanges in 5 Days The supply drain that followed the whale accumulation completes the picture that Woominkyu’s analysis assembles. Over the five days following the $60,000 to $61,000 bottom, whales withdrew 11,422 BTC — approximately $700 million — off exchanges and into cold storage. The Exchange Netflow turned deeply negative as the coins absorbed during the panic phase were immediately moved away from the venues where they could be resold. Bitcoin price vs. Exchange Whale Ratio | Source: Woominkyu on CryptoQuant The behavioral sequence is precise and deliberate. Whales bought aggressively at the bottom using the panic selling that retail participants generated. Then they withdrew those coins from exchanges entirely — removing them from the immediately available sell-side supply and placing them in cold storage where they cannot re-enter the market quickly. The result is a liquid supply drain of significant scale. Over $700 million worth of Bitcoin that was briefly available on exchanges during the most fearful period of the decline has been swept into long-term custody in less than a week. The order book is thinner than it was before the drop. The supply that retail sold into the bottom is now held by participants who have demonstrated through their behavior that they have no intention of selling it back at current prices. Woominkyu’s verdict follows directly from the sequence. The wealth transfer from weak hands to strong hands is complete. The $60,000 to $61,000 range has been validated as a genuine institutional accumulation zone — defended at scale, absorbed systematically, and immediately removed from liquid circulation. That behavioral fingerprint establishes the floor from which the next leg higher becomes structurally possible. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes One Of Its Rarest Demand Signals In Six Years – Details Bitcoin Clings To February Support Bitcoin remains under significant pressure on the daily timeframe. The price is trading near $61,400 after suffering one of its sharpest declines of 2026. The chart shows a decisive breakdown below the critical $64,000–$66,000 support zone that had previously acted as a floor during the February-March consolidation. Once that area failed, sellers quickly pushed BTC into the lower end of its broader range, triggering a rapid move toward the psychologically important $60,000 level. Bitcoin trading below key level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView The current structure is technically fragile. Bitcoin is trading below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with all three trending downward. This alignment confirms that bearish momentum remains dominant across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes. Notably, the recent recovery attempt from the $60,000 area has been relatively weak. Producing only a modest bounce despite elevated trading volume during the selloff. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes One Of Its Rarest Demand Signals In Six Years – Details From a market structure perspective, the most important observation is that Bitcoin is now revisiting the same support zone that produced the February low. That area between roughly $60,000 and $62,000 has become the last major defense line preventing a deeper retracement. A sustained hold above this region could allow price to stabilize and potentially build a base. A decisive breakdown would leave little historical support until significantly lower levels. Increasing the risk of another volatility expansion phase. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "Ethereum price started a downside correction below $1,665. ETH must clear the $1,650 and $1,720 resistance levels to continue higher. Ethereum started a downside correction below the $1,650 zone. The price is trading below $1,650 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a declining channel forming with resistance at $1,640 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it stays below the $1,720 zone. Ethereum Price Holds Support Ethereum price failed to stay above the $1,680 zone and extended its decline, like Bitcoin. ETH price gained pace for a move below the $1,665 and $1,650 levels. The price even tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,505 swing low to the $1,720 swing high. However, the bulls were active near the $1,610 level. Besides, there is a declining channel forming with resistance at $1,640 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Ethereum price is now trading below $1,650 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. If the bulls remain in action above $1,610, the price could attempt another increase. Immediate resistance is seen near the $1,650 level. The first key resistance is near the $1,665 level. The next major resistance is near the $1,680 level. A clear move above the $1,680 resistance might send the price toward the $1,720 resistance. An upside break above the $1,720 region might call for more gains in the coming days. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $1,780 resistance zone or even $1,800 in the near term. Downside Continuation In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $1,650 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $1,610 level. The first major support sits near the $1,590 zone or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,505 swing low to the $1,720 swing high. A clear move below the $1,590 support might push the price toward the $1,550 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $1,520 region. The main support could be $1,500. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $1,610 Major Resistance Level – $1,665",
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"caption": "A crypto hacker who drained $26 million from Ethereum-based protocol Truebit in January had likely practiced the technique on smaller targets first, according to blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Rally Has A Problem: Demand Is Drying Up A Contract Left Exposed For Years The Truebit exploit was the largest of four incidents Chainalysis identified in a new report covering the past six months. Together, those attacks — targeting Truebit, Trusted Volumes, Aperture Finance, and Ekubo — account for roughly $37 million in losses, all traced back to contracts whose source code had never been publicly verified on blockchain explorers. The Truebit contract had been sitting on Ethereum since 2021. It was compiled using Solidity v0.5.3, a version released before automatic overflow protections became standard. An attacker found an integer overflow flaw inside its bonding curve mechanism and used it to mint large quantities of tokens at minimal cost before converting them to ETH. Why Closed Code Creates Open Risk Verified contracts get reviewed. Bug bounty hunters read them. Independent researchers flag problems before attackers do. Unverified contracts get none of that scrutiny, and many bug bounty programs specifically exclude them from coverage — meaning vulnerabilities can sit untouched for years while millions of dollars flow through the affected code. That gap is what Chainalysis says attackers are now exploiting. Each of the four compromised contracts lacked publicly available source code. Attackers worked instead from decompiled bytecode, converting raw on-chain code into readable output using tools like Dedaub, Heimdall, and Panoramix. Once decompiled, the code can be fed into AI systems capable of spotting reentrancy flaws, arithmetic errors, and access-control weaknesses at a scale no human reviewer could match. The $36.7 million figure is a fraction of total DeFi losses during the same period — Chainalysis puts the broader six-month theft total above $1 billion. But the firm argues the unverified contract problem could grow as automated analysis tools become cheaper and easier to use, allowing attackers to scan large numbers of dormant contracts and rank them by exploitability. The Vulnerabilities Varied, But The Pattern Did Not Across the four incidents, the specific bugs differed. Reports indicate weaknesses ranged from integer overflow and access-control failures to input-validation errors and identity verification flaws. Related Reading: A 400 Billion Shiba Inu Surprise: Whale Wallet Springs Back To Life What they shared was the same protection gap: no public source code, no external review, and no real-time monitoring in place to catch abnormal activity before the funds were gone. Chainalysis is recommending that protocols treat source-code verification as a baseline requirement for any contract holding user assets. The firm also says audits and bug bounty coverage should extend to implementation contracts sitting behind proxy structures — components that often go unreviewed even when the front-facing contract is verified. Featured image from CybersecAsia, chart from TradingView",
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"caption": "Tim Draper argued bitcoin faces less quantum risk than banks, comparing its security to Fort Knox. His comments shifted attention from blockchain vulnerabilities to legacy financial systems, as debate grows over quantum computing’s threat to modern cryptography. Tim Draper Revives Bitcoin Security Thesis as Quantum Fears Shift Toward Banks Venture capitalist and longtime bitcoin investor […]",
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"caption": "Ethereum is struggling below $1,700 as the market faces a combination of apathy and uncertainty that has made sustained directional movement difficult to produce in either direction. The price is grinding — not breaking down aggressively but equally failing to generate the momentum needed to reclaim higher levels — and data from Arkham Intelligence has identified a cluster of large institutional withdrawals that adds a structural layer to the current setup worth examining carefully. Related Reading: XRP Leverage Flush Hits Bybit While Binance Holds The Line – Analyst Explains Rare Setup Three whale addresses — two of them freshly created wallets with no prior transaction history — have withdrawn a combined $122.29 million in Ethereum from FalconX and Kraken. The scale of the withdrawal is significant. The venue combination is notable. FalconX is a regulated institutional prime brokerage serving some of the most sophisticated participants in digital asset markets, while Kraken is one of the most established and most scrutinized exchanges in the ecosystem. Ethereum Whale Transfers | Source: Arkham The creation of fresh wallets for withdrawals of this scale is the behavioral detail that carries the most analytical weight. Institutional participants creating new addresses specifically for large withdrawals typically do so to maintain operational security, separate treasury positions from trading activity, or establish dedicated holding infrastructure for assets intended for long-term custody rather than near-term trading. $122 million in Ethereum leaving institutional venues and moving into freshly created wallets during a period of market apathy does not describe participants preparing to sell. It describes participants who have made a decision about Ethereum at current prices — and have created the infrastructure to hold that decision for an extended period. Down 9 Million and Still Withdrawing The Arkham data adds a layer that transforms the withdrawal from a routine institutional movement into a statement about conviction under pressure. One of the addresses involved in the current withdrawal cluster previously purchased Ethereum and is currently sitting on an unrealized loss of approximately $9.1 million on that position. The market has moved against the trade — and the response is not to reduce exposure or exit at a smaller loss. The response is to withdraw more ETH from exchanges into custody. Ethereum Whale position | Source: Arkham Arkham has raised the question of whether the address is connected to Tom Lee — and the behavioral profile is consistent with what Bitmine has been executing publicly. The company has been systematically building toward a 5% Ethereum supply target, currently holding approximately $9.32 billion worth of ETH at 4.59% of circulating supply, with approximately $819.86 million in additional purchases still required to reach that threshold. A participant sitting on a $9.1 million unrealized loss who responds by withdrawing more ETH from institutional venues rather than cutting the position is expressing the same long-term thesis that Bitmine’s entire treasury strategy represents. The loss is present and acknowledged. The direction of the next action is unchanged. For Ethereum below $1,700 under market apathy, that behavioral pattern — institutional-scale participants absorbing unrealized losses and continuing to accumulate rather than capitulating — is the structural signal that the price chart is not yet reflecting but that the on-chain data is documenting in real time. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes One Of Its Rarest Demand Signals In Six Years – Details Ethereum Breaks Below February Support As Bears Extend Control Ethereum remains under heavy selling pressure after decisively breaking below the February support zone near $1,800-$1,900, a level that had previously served as the foundation for multiple recovery attempts throughout 2026. The breakdown has fundamentally altered the market structure, with ETH now trading near $1,620 after briefly plunging toward the $1,500 region. More importantly, the recent rebound has been weak and unable to reclaim any meaningful resistance, highlighting the absence of aggressive buyers despite growing institutional accumulation narratives. Ethereum testing critical demand | Source: ETHUSDT chart on TradingView From a technical perspective, the chart shows a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the May peak around $2,400. The failure at that resistance zone marked the completion of a distribution range that ultimately resolved to the downside. Once ETH lost the $1,850 support area, selling accelerated sharply, producing a high-volume breakdown that pushed price well below all major moving averages. Related Reading: XRP Just Printed A Rare Binance Signal As Market Volatility Accelerates The 50-day and 100-day moving averages continue trending lower above the current price, while the 200-day moving average near $2,450 remains far out of reach. This alignment confirms that momentum remains firmly bearish across all major timeframes. The key level to watch is the recent low near $1,500. Bulls have managed to defend that area so far, but unless ETH can reclaim the former support zone around $1,850, the current bounce looks more like a relief rally inside a broader downtrend than the start of a sustainable recovery. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "Luke Gromen says Bitcoin’s failure to break decisively higher may reflect more than weak spot demand, arguing that paper instruments can temporarily absorb buying pressure in the same way derivatives have shaped the gold market for years. Speaking with Nathalie Brunell in a June 6 interview, the macro analyst said he has not materially rebuilt the Bitcoin position he previously reduced. “I nibbled a little bit,” Gromen said, but added that he has “not really bought back in in any real way.” The reason, he suggested, is that Bitcoin’s recent price action may be signaling something important about liquidity, market structure and the political sensitivity of hard-asset signals. Paper Bitcoin And The $58K-$72K Frustration Zone Brunell asked Gromen about his prior remark that Bitcoin could remain stuck in what she described as a “$58K to $72K gang for a while,” and whether BTC and gold prices could be suppressed. Gromen clarified that the comment was partly “tongue-in-cheek,” but said there is a serious mechanism behind the idea. Related Reading: Bitcoin At A Discount? Coinbase Exec Says Institutions And Govts Are Buying “I think the way they would do it is the expansion of derivatives, the way they’ve done it with gold historically,” he said. “I think you can in the long run. I don’t think you can do it with Bitcoin, but to the extent that you can expand derivatives, in the short run they can matter.” Gromen’s argument is not that Bitcoin’s supply can be changed, but that demand can be diverted. A buyer that otherwise would need to purchase spot BTC can instead buy a call option or another synthetic instrument. That still expresses bullish exposure, but it does not necessarily remove coins from the market in the same way self-custodied spot accumulation would. “Somebody wants to own Bitcoin, but they’re not buying Bitcoin. They’re buying a call on Bitcoin,” Gromen said. “If you didn’t have those derivatives there, then if you want to own Bitcoin, you got to own Bitcoin. Now, you can buy a derivative on Bitcoin, and it starts to get sloppier, looser.” For Gromen, that distinction matters most over shorter windows. He argued that policymakers can manage optics “to a lot of things” in the near term, even if they cannot do so indefinitely. Luke Gromen on why Bitcoin might keep stalling around $58k-72K: big players can satisfy demand with paper bets instead of buying real #Bitcoin, which holds the price back. It’s worked on #gold for years, but he doesn’t think it lasts forever with Bitcoin… https://t.co/yPAuJA3dKI pic.twitter.com/CwZ2cGwwW6 — Natalie Brunell ⚡️ (@natbrunell) June 9, 2026 Bitcoin As A Liquidity Smoke Alarm The derivative-suppression thesis sits inside a broader macro framework. Gromen described Bitcoin as “one of, if not the last functioning smoke alarm of liquidity,” and said its recent weakness is “telling us not good things.” In his view, liquidity is being absorbed elsewhere, most visibly by AI-related equities and by energy and commodities after the Iran war. “AI is sucking all the oxygen out of the room, all the liquidity out of the room, and it’s all in one area,” Gromen said. “And I think that’s happening to Bitcoin as well. I think it’s a victim of that as well.” He argued that the equity rally is narrower than headline indices suggest, with AI-linked names carrying much of the move. That makes Bitcoin’s lag more relevant to him: if BTC is a liquidity-sensitive asset and it is not confirming the strength in stocks, the market may be less healthy than the index level implies. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stablecoin Ratio Drops To Extreme Low—What It Means For BTC Gromen linked the issue to the US effort to run the economy hot, weaken the dollar and reshore production. Those forces, he said, should be positive for gold and Bitcoin in a freer market. But they also risk sending an uncomfortable message. “There are elements in the US that don’t want to see that because those things will be communicating to the world, hey, you’re just inflating,” he said. “Hey, you’re just inflating. And that creates some issues on the financing side with the Treasury market.” His base case is not a conventional crash, but a shift in the measuring stick. He expects equities to rise in dollar terms while falling when priced in gold and Bitcoin. In that scenario, hard assets outperform nominal claims, while 10-year Treasury yields remain broadly contained in the 4% to 4.5% area. That is why Gromen does not see any potential suppression of Bitcoin as permanent. Paper markets can delay a move. They can blur the signal. But in his framework, they cannot eliminate the underlying macro pressure. “In the short run, they can manage the optics,” he said. “In the long run, they can’t.” At press time, BTC traded at $60,966. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "According to a crypto analyst, Dogecoin (DOGE) has returned to a key trendline that has repeatedly marked major cycle bottoms in past market phases. The setup comes alongside low sentiment and weakness, conditions that previously aligned with strong price recoveries. The analyst noted that this lower line could now form a potential base for Dogecoin’s next upside move to the top. Analyst Forecasts Dogecoin Perfect Price Bottom Market expert Cryptollica has announced that Dogecoin may have formed a cycle bottom after revisiting a long-term support trendline that has been building since 2021. The analyst noted that every previous market bottom since 2021 began at this same lower support line. Related Reading: Dogecoin Will ‘Pump Hard’ After This Happens, Analyst Clocks Generational Entry In his X post, Cryptollica pointed to psychological conditions that have historically aligned with this lower trendline. He noted that each time Dogecoin approaches this area, demand and interest in the meme coin plummets to low levels, with sentiment turning extremely negative and fearful. This area has also marked major reversal points for Dogecoin, allowing the cryptocurrency to begin a fresh recovery after a severe downtrend. Past movements from Cryptollica 2021 to 2024 price chart support this view. In 2021, Dogecoin touched this trendline around $0.095 before surging to new highs that marked its historical bull run. A year later, in 2022, the same trendline held at $0.045, again marking the bottom before a sharp rebound. The cryptocurrency also established a fresh bottom near $0.055 in 2024 before starting an uptrend that eventually pushed its price above $0.225. In the current market cycle, Dogecoin has revisited this lower trendline once again. The first time this happened was in early 2026 when its price crashed to roughly $0.085, and the second occurred just recently. Cryptollica has described this latest retest as the “perfect bottom” for Dogecoin, noting that the same structure and negative psychological conditions in 2021 are also present in the current cycle. With chart patterns and broader sentiment aligning almost perfectly, the analyst believes that a market reset may have already occurred or is nearing completion. If this view proves correct, he expects Dogecoin to enter a recovery phase soon, with potential upside targets near $1.6. Analyst Urges To Wait For Confirmation Before Calling Bottom In a separate analysis, market expert Erick Crypto revealed that Dogecoin has recently lost a major support zone. He said the key demand area near $0.085 failed to hold as market sellers took control, adding more pressure on the meme coin’s price. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Just Entered A Critical Level, But Analyst Says It’s Not Time To Buy The analyst added that the latest move raises questions about whether it was a liquidity sweep ahead of a potential recovery or the beginning of a deeper price correction. As Dogecoin continues its downtrend, Erick Crypto noted that its trading volume is still increasing, signaling strong market participation. He urged traders to closely watch price movements and wait for a clear confirmation before calling a final cycle bottom. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com",
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"caption": "Grayscale has weighed in on whether bitcoin is cheap after BTC’s recent decline below $60,000. The firm points investors to two key factors that could determine whether the market has found a bottom. Bitcoin Valuation Metrics Suggest BTC May Be Undervalued Bitcoin’s recent drop to a new cycle low below $60,000 has sparked a key […]",
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"caption": "Bitcoin fell to its lowest weekly close since the second half of 2024 last week, capping a stretch that has now stripped more than 8% of its value in seven days and pulled the broader crypto market to levels not seen since early in the year. Related Reading: Security Milestone: XRP Lending Protocol Completes Military-Grade Assessment A Pattern Worth Watching The weekly relative strength index is holding higher lows even as price prints lower ones — a divergence that last appeared in the lead-up to Bitcoin’s recovery from the 2022 bear market bottom. Whether that parallel plays out the same way remains to be seen, but it is the detail technical traders are watching most closely right now. On Monday, with Bitcoin trading below $62,000, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, a.k.a. CZ, posted two lines on X. Bitcoin won’t be dead for too long, he wrote, signing off with a reference to the Douglas Adams line — don’t panic, in large friendly letters. The message was short, deliberate, and timed to land when sentiment was at its weakest. Bitcoin won’t be “dead” for too long. Don’t panic, in large friendly letters. — CZ 🔶 BNB (@cz_binance) June 9, 2026 Support Holds, For Now Bitcoin has so far bounced from the $60,000 level each time it has been tested in recent days. The next band of resistance sits between $65,000 and $66,200, with a heavier ceiling between $67,000 and $77,000 above that. According to analysts, a break below $60,000, while not seen as the most likely outcome in the near term given the oversold signals still unwinding, would open the door to the $53,000–$55,000 range. The rest of the market has fared worse. Ethereum is down nearly 14% over the past seven days, last trading around $1,640. XRP has shed 6% to sit at $1.13. Solana has given up 14% to trade near $64. Related Reading: XRP Being Suppressed? Researcher Reveals Why The Token Isn’t Soaring CZ’s Moment To Speak Zhao has one of the largest followings in the industry, and his Monday post arrived at a moment when retail sentiment across crypto forums and social platforms was running heavily negative. The market cap of the entire crypto sector has dropped to levels last seen in early 2026. The $60,000 support level remains the line most traders are watching in the days ahead. It has held so far, but each test of it draws more attention to what comes next if it doesn’t. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView",
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"caption": "Onchain records show yet another Casascius physical bitcoin has been redeemed, this time from an address originally created on Nov. 1, 2011. The plot thickens, however, because the spend traces back to another dormant wallet tied to the sprawling New York Supreme Court case Noah Doe v. John Does 1–39,069, adding one more chapter to […]",
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"caption": "As Bitcoin (BTC) hovers near its lowest levels since late 2024, a market observer suggests the flagship crypto may not have finished bottoming yet, with more downside potentially ahead. Related Reading: XRP Sees Intense Capitulation As Realized Profit-To-Loss Ratio Plunges BTC’s Historical Data Points To Longer Correction On Wednesday, analyst Rekt Capital compared Bitcoin’s current price action to its performance in previous cycles to determine how close the leading crypto’s market bottom may be. In a video analysis on X, the market watcher explained that BTC’s deviations from previous all-time highs (ATHs) could serve as key reference points for this assessment. Notably, Bitcoin bottomed 22% from the 2017 peak during the last cycle’s correction. Now, it is trading roughly 14% below the 2021 peak of $69,000, which could suggest the bottom may be approaching. However, the analyst affirmed that this metric alone “doesn’t represent the mosaic of data that we need to be paying attention to.” He stated that the length of previous bear markets is a crucial indicator to factor in, noting that, historically, Bitcoin bear markets tend to last at least one year, sometimes extending beyond that. For instance, the flagship crypto took approximately 365 days to complete its full corrective phase during the 2021-2022 bear market. The current pullback has lasted about 240 days so far, which would depart from historical behavior and make it significantly shorter than previous cycles if the bottom is already in or close. If the current cycle follows a similar timeline to previous ones, BTC could have at least 120 days left in its corrective phase, with the bottom likely occurring around October and the possibility of further extension if the cycle mirrors longer historical patterns. Bitcoin Bottom Another 20% Below? The analyst highlighted that while the duration of the bear market is important, the depth of its retracement is another crucial factor. Last cycle, Bitcoin dropped 77%, while it declined 84% during its 2018 bear market. Nonetheless, the pullback has only reached 53% so far this cycle, suggesting there may still be room for additional downside. Based on this, he emphasized the trend of shallower bear markets, with the correction’s depth progressively diminishing roughly 7%-10% each cycle. If this pattern repeats, Bitcoin could see a potential retracement near 70% this cycle, placing BTC’s bottom in the high $30,000 range. Meanwhile, if the shallowing trend accelerates toward a 10% reduction, the bottom could form near the low $40,000 region. Related Reading: Bitmine Makes Largest Ethereum Purchase Of 2026 As Tom Lee Dismisses Market Selloff These factors point to a critical period over the next four to five months, the analyst affirmed, in which another leg down of up to 20% remains possible. He noted that similar phases have historically included periods of consolidation followed by additional declines before the final bottom forms. Ultimately, Rekt Capital asserted that this period is crucial as it lays the foundation for the next bull cycle. “This bear market here (…) precedes an entire period of multi-year upside. And I think that’s why it’s important, as a result, to focus on the importance of this bear market bottoming out period over these next few months because we’ll then see a multi-year period of upside,” he concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "Bitcoin is testing a key demand zone after breaking down from a symmetrical triangle, putting the market at a critical turning point. While buyers may attempt to defend this support and trigger a rebound, a failure to hold could open the door to further downside in the near term. Bearish Triangle Breakdown Sends Bitcoin Toward Key Liquidity Zone Minga highlighted that the market has experienced a bearish breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern, and the price is trending toward the 50% wick fill region of the previous weekly candle, an area containing significant untested liquidity and a long limit order that was previously front-ran. While he expects this long position to be filled, the risk on this trade is minimal at 0.25%, effectively serving as a risk-free hedge against his existing short position. Related Reading: Bitcoin Trader Says Something Extremely Bad Is Coming Today, Here’s What Minga maintains a bullish bias for the remainder of the month, but he emphasizes that this outlook requires technical confirmation, specifically a bounce from the $60,700 level. Losing this key support likely invites further downside, bringing the $58,900 level into focus. Given that the daily trend is showing clear signs of exhaustion, Minga views the $60,700–$58,900 range as a high-probability zone for a potential recovery. However, the analyst cautions that exhaustion does not inherently guarantee a reversal. Market conditions can often result in a slow, grinding decline as the asset hunts for liquidity on both sides, leading to highly choppy price action. This behavior is historically common near major market turning points. Given that the market is potentially nearing a macro bottom, the possibility of a prolonged, choppy descent cannot be ignored. Should this scenario materialize and the current support zones fail to hold, Minga identifies the $54,500–$49,000 region as the next critical downside target. $60,800 Remains BTC’s Most Important Battleground According to analyst @wangtuai888, whose track record includes eight consecutive accurate trend predictions, the market is currently hovering at a decisive juncture. As long as the $60,800 support holds, the asset remains within an uptrend. However, should the price break and close a 1-hour solid candle below $60,800, which marks a critical Point of Control (POC) and a vacuum zone, the analyst anticipates a sharp, immediate decline. Related Reading: Bitcoin Testing A Critical Support After Sharp Market-Wide Selloff If the $60,800 support holds, @wangtuai888 expects an initial rebound toward $62,400 to break the previous minor high and shift the local market structure. This would be followed by a pullback to the $61,800 POC, which the analyst identifies as a favorable entry point for long positions. The strategy then pivots toward a tactical shorting opportunity. The analyst intends to initiate a short position near the 63,000 level, noting that even if a stop-loss is triggered, the high reward-to-risk ratio makes this a worthwhile trade. Ultimately, the analyst emphasizes that this expected rebound should not be mistaken for a full market reversal. The broader direction remains firmly in a downtrend, and the ultimate price target for this bearish cycle is $55,500. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com",
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"caption": "For months now, Congress has been kicking the ball down the road—temporarily postponing the expiration of the mass surveillance authority Section 702 of FISA in hopes that some consensus could be reached. Now, with the deadline looming, the stakes have never been higher. Nearly every time the statute has come up for renewal, the people demanding privacy and civil liberties have had to compromise, but with current negotiations seemingly at an impasse, it’s time for surveillance maximalist lawmakers to come to the table. \nWe say to the Intelligence Community crowd: Section 702 should require a warrant before the Federal Bureau of Investigation can look at digital communications collected from Americans. If not, we should let the whole thing expire.\nThis is a serious proposition. The intelligence community can keep a useful national security surveillance tool if and only if they make FBI agents get a warrant signed by a judge before they sift through and read out private communications. A warrant requirement is not the only demand EFF has been making for changing Section 702, but it is the most important reform and it should happen before there is any more reauthorization of the policy. \nFor too long, the FBI has been able to piggyback on a major national security tool as an unconstitutional backdoor way of reading Americans’ communications. 702 collects communications going to, from, or between people in other countries—including when they are contacted by people in the United States. Mass surveillance is just that—mass. It’s lacking any of the individualized suspicion that our legal system is based on. \nTake action\nTELL congress: 702 Needs Reform\nSo, what’s been happening? \nOn one side are surveillance hawks and intelligence community-devotees who think the mass surveillance of Americans is an acceptable, even valuable, product of this authority. This bipartisan coalition of privacy deniers think that 702 should be extended without any change, and they seem to be willing to let the authority expire rather than compromise with the lawmakers and public that are demanding common-sense reforms. They’ve been given a number of chances to pass bills that would implement some key incremental reforms, but those opportunities have not moved the needle. \nOn the other side of the debate is a bipartisan coalition of people who understand that this authority can no longer operate as is. Section 702 is rife with problems, loopholes, and compliance issues that need fixing. The National Security Agency collects full conversations being conducted by and with overseas targets—including conversations by and with Americans in the U.S.—and stores them in massive databases. The NSA then allows other agencies, specifically the FBI, to access untold amounts of that information. In turn, the FBI takes a “finders keepers” approach to this data: they reason that since it's already collected under one law, it’s OK for them to see it. If the FBI wanted to get that data on their own, it would require them to get a warrant signed by a judge certifying that there is probable cause. Instead, under current practice, the FBI can query and even read the U.S. side of that communication without a warrant. What’s more, victims of this surveillance won’t know and have very few ways of finding out that their communications have been surveilled.\nComplicating this matter more is that the Trump administration has announced Bill Pulte as the new Director of National Intelligence, whose job it will be to oversee and direct U.S. intelligence agencies. This is particularly concerning because of Pulte’s history of using private information held by the government as a political weapon. In his FHFA role, he has accused several of the President’s political foes and targets—including New York State Attorney General Letitia James, U.S. Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook—of mortgage fraud based on private data held by his agency. Because of his looming appointment, many Democrats have vowed not to reauthorize Section 702 unless he is removed from the position. They shouldn’t stop there—they should use that leverage to demand a warrant requirement. The integrity of the people in charge of a program should not be the only thing that stands between Americans and violations of their civil liberties. \nWhat happens if 702 expires? \nAs the New York Times reports, “The law, however, has a built-in safety net for a temporary lapse that allows the surveillance program to endure until annual certifications issued by the nation’s intelligence court expire, though such a scenario could invite legal challenges. The court recertified the program in March, meaning the N.S.A. could continue to operate the program through March 2027 even if the statute were to expire.” \nIf Section 702 does stay expired past March 2027, the United States government will likely revert to using other programs and authorities to justify the surveillance of overseas national security targets, namely 12333, a shadowy executive order from the 1980s that gives the U.S. government nearly unlimited power to spy on people overseas. Even if this does come to pass, standing our ground on warrant requirements and allowing Section 702 to expire is important for several reasons. First, just because the government continues surveillance under a different authority does not mean it is legally justified in doing so—this was the lesson of the post 9/11 Presidential Surveillance Program, which was only retroactively immunized by Congress. Second, seeing how the government responds to the end of Section 702 might give us opportunities to push for transparency in other parts of information collection and better understand how the inner workings of the intelligence apparatus pivot and adapt as new legal authorities take precedence. \nWhere do we go from here? \nEvery few years, for almost two decades now, we’ve been fighting to reform Section 702 so that it will no longer enable the warrantless mass surveillance of Americans. A bipartisan coalition in Congress supports this goal, but the White House and Congressional leadership won’t listen. It’s past time we make at least one serious reform to a mass surveillance law that has been abused for decades. Tell your elected official: Put a warrant requirement in Section 702 or let it expire. \nTake action\nTELL congress: 702 Needs Reform",
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"caption": "Raydium (RAY), a decentralized exchange on the Solana (SOL) blockchain, said Wednesday that it had suffered a $1.34 million exploit tied to its retired automated market maker, or AMM, V3 program. Raydium Pools Drained The protocol said the attacker removed about 150,000 RAY, 5,600 SOL, and nearly 900,000 of Circle’s USDC stablecoin from Raydium pools involving RAY-SOL, USDC-RAY, and SRM-RAY. Raydium attributed the compromise to a weakness in how the older AMM V3 handled liquidity provider (LP) mints. The platform said the vulnerability “stemmed from insufficient validation of the LP mints, which in practice allowed the attacker to bypass intended proportion checks. Related Reading: Prediction Markets’ Wild West Days May Be Over: CFTC Drafts Its First Major Framework According to the description of the mechanism, because the legacy AMM V3 program did not properly verify the LP mint address, an attacker was able to create a new mint and use it as the LP token, letting it evade the checks that were supposed to control how assets could be accounted for in the Raydium pools. The exchange emphasized that the affected AMM V3 program was no longer available through Raydium’s interface, explaining that the legacy AMM V3 program was phased out in 2021 and was effectively unreachable via Raydium’s current user tools. Funds Traced Across Two Blockchains Details on the alleged laundering trail were provided by PeckShield, which described how the attacker’s funds were initially funded via KuCoin and then bridged from Solana to Ethereum (ETH). Related Reading: Treasury Stablecoin Proposal Draws Major Warning From Hyperliquid Policy Center–Here’s Why PeckShield said that 810 ETH had already been sent to Tornado Cash, and that 7 ETH had been moved to FixedFloat, framing both moves as part of an active effort to launder the Raydium funds. In Raydium’s own breakdown of the exploit, the firm reiterated that its current programs were unaffected by the incident, and said it is in the middle of security review work on all mainnet programs by Raydium core contributors. Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "XRP has entered one of its most uncomfortable technical zones in months. The cryptocurrency has now broken below a support base that had held since February, but the selloff has not yet turned into a collapse below $1. Instead, the daily chart shows the XRP price landing on a much older descending channel support that has guided it lower since August 2025. That leaves the cryptocurrency in a difficult position that shows the breakdown is real, but so is the possibility that the latest liquidation has simply carried XRP into a deeper support line that still gives bulls a chance. XRP Breaks February Support, But Finds A Lower Channel Floor Technical analysis of the daily XRP chart shows a clear loss of the straight support range that had held the market together since February. For months, XRP moved mostly sideways between $1.25 and $1.55, with buyers repeatedly stepping in each time the price returned to the lower boundary. Related Reading: The XRP Dream Has Changed: Why A Rally To $10 Could Happen Despite Disappointment That structure finally gave way in early June, and XRP fell within the range with a daily candle that pushed the price into $1.10. This move was accompanied by various on-chain signals dropping to bear levels and the XRP profit/loss ratio falling to its lowest levels since 2024. However, an interesting part of the price action is where the selloff stopped. XRP seems to have found support on the lower line of a broader descending channel that has been active since August 2025. This larger channel has contained nearly every major XRP move for months, and the latest liquidation wick landed almost exactly where buyers needed it to land to keep that bigger structure alive. Bulls Still Have A Chance According to crypto analyst Guy on the Earth, XRP finding support at this descending channel could be something or it could be nothing. In order for this move to mean something, the first level that matters is $1.10. A loss of $1.10 would weaken the channel-support argument. Therefore, the XRP price needs to hold above $1.10. So far, bulls are doing well to that effect, with XRP currently trading at $1.12 and an intraday high of $1.17. Related Reading: XRP Is Oversold On Every Time Frame, And This Could Be The Bullish Signal Everyone Is Waiting For The next upside level to watch is $1.27. That price level is important because it was close to the lower boundary of the February to May range before the breakdown. Former support often becomes resistance once price loses it, and a return to $1.27 would therefore be the first real test of whether XRP is only bouncing from oversold conditions or beginning to repair the damage from the breakdown. Crypto analyst Guy on the Earth believes XRP could soon put traders in a difficult position with a quick move toward $1.96, suggesting that the next major rally may arrive with explosive force after months of persistent downside. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com",
"headline": "XRP Forms Channel Support That Puts Market In Difficult Spot, But Bulls Still Have A Chance",
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"caption": "Over 200 crypto firms push U.S. Senate to pass the CLARITY Act, a crucial regulatory bill for digital assets, before the midterm elections this November. (Read More)",
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"caption": "The Bitcoin price could be on track to reach $200,000 within the next one to two years, according to crypto analyst @CryptoTice_. Backed by a long-term cycle chart, the analyst argues that Bitcoin is once again moving through a familiar historical pattern, placing the current phase in what he describes as a key accumulation zone ahead of a potential major rally. Bitcoin Price Path Points To 2027 Target The chart maps Bitcoin’s previous market cycles and outlines a potential path toward $200,000. Based on this projection, the target could be reached within 12 to 24 months from June 2026, placing it between mid-2027 and mid-2028, with 2027 appearing as the more probable timeframe. Related Reading: Analyst Charts Ethereum Long-Term Roadmap To $16,000 – There’s No Need To Panic To support this view, the analyst compares Bitcoin’s current setup with the cycle lows recorded in 2019 and 2022, both marked as “buy zones” that were followed by major rallies. The 2019 bottom preceded a climb to roughly $69,000, while the 2022 low eventually led to a surge toward $126,000. The analyst believes the latest correction fits the same pattern. After falling from around $126,000, Bitcoin rebounded near the $60,000 region, creating what he identifies as another accumulation zone. From there, the projection points to a recovery that ultimately pushes the Bitcoin price toward $200,000. The consistency of this structure forms the foundation of the forecast. In each cycle, Bitcoin experiences a sharp correction, spends time consolidating, and then enters a strong expansion phase. Although the percentage gains have become smaller with each cycle, the broader upward trend remains intact. Why The Crypto Analyst Sees A Rare Opportunity That historical pattern is also why @CryptoTice_ argues that the current market environment may offer a significant opportunity. According to the analyst, previous cycle bottoms were formed during periods of widespread uncertainty, before sentiment eventually shifted and prices moved higher. The chart reflects this view by projecting a gain of roughly 230% from the 2026 buy zone to the $200,000 target. While substantial, that increase is far below the explosive returns seen in Bitcoin’s earlier years, reflecting how the asset’s growth has gradually moderated as the market has matured and attracted greater institutional participation. Related Reading: Not $60,000: Analyst Reveals The Best Time To Actually Start Buying Bitcoin The forecast comes at a time when investors remain divided over Bitcoin’s next move. Some continue to focus on macroeconomic conditions, interest-rate expectations, and regulatory developments, while others see the recent pullback as another cycle correction that could eventually lead to new highs. For the crypto analyst, the most important factor is timing. His model suggests that the current phase may represent the final stage of accumulation before the next major advance begins. If Bitcoin continues to follow the structure shown in the chart, the path to $200,000 could unfold over the next 12 to 24 months, making 2027 a year worth watching closely. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com",
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"caption": "The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has unveiled its first regulatory framework for prediction markets, releasing what it described as a proposed approach to governing the industry under American law. The plan, issued by the agency on Wednesday, would establish standards for certain types of wagering while leaving markets tied to elections and politics largely outside the category of activities that would trigger more intensive scrutiny. Where The Line Is Drawn The new proposal sets out how the agency would start determining whether a contract should be prohibited. Under the draft, the CFTC said it preliminarily views both sporting wagers and wagers involving games of chance and pure luck as falling under “gaming.” At the same time, it suggests that wagering on sports outcomes is likely not broadly contrary to the public interest, while staking money on gambling or games of pure luck likely would be. The framework further argues that prediction markets based on sports scores, price spreads, win-loss outcomes, tournament advancement, and similar data may serve a “price discovery” function and provide meaningful information. Related Reading: XRP May Reach $10 By 2027—But Bearish Conditions Could Push It Below $1, Expert Says Where the proposal draws sharper boundaries is with specific categories of sports-related betting. The CFTC indicated that wagering on player injury, fighting, children’s sports, officiating, or wagering structured in a way that could encourage cheating was unlikely to meet the public interest standard. The draft also addresses election-related contracts, noting that election wagers are “contests, not gaming,” and therefore fall outside the “enumerated activities” that would allow the CFTC to apply its 90-day review process to event contracts. The agency’s proposal also focuses heavily on how it would evaluate whether a contract crosses too far into areas like terrorism, war, or assassinations—topics that, the draft notes, domestically regulated exchanges have largely avoided offering. 45-Day Comment Period For Prediction Markets In its announcement, the CFTC acknowledged that the rules released Wednesday are “thin,” and said additional rulemaking about prediction markets could be introduced in the future. After Wednesday’s release, the proposed rule will undergo a 45-day public comment period. CFTC Chair Mike Selig emphasized the commission’s intent as it prepares for further steps in the rulemaking process. He said in a statement that the CFTC would protect the integrity of its regulated markets while still allowing “responsible innovation. Selig added that the new prediction markets proposal provides a durable and transparent framework for identifying the contracts Congress directed the agency to scrutinize, while also letting legitimate markets continue. Related Reading: Treasury Stablecoin Proposal Draws Major Warning From Hyperliquid Policy Center–Here’s Why Beyond defining the types of wagering that may fall on different sides of the line, the proposal lays out a step-by-step process for prohibitions. The CFTC would first determine whether the contract is actually tied to an event happening. It would then evaluate whether the event fits within the categories defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, and finally conduct a public interest analysis to decide whether the prediction markets’ contract should be banned or allowed. Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "Enshittification isn't just a sweary word to describe the accelerating decay of the online platforms, apps, and services that we rely on. \nIt's a framework for understanding the structural incentives that make tech companies enemies of their own users over time—the surveillance business model, the erosion of privacy, the monopoly power that eliminates alternatives, the regulatory capture that prevents accountability. \nSUPPORT EFF\nGET LimITED EDITION MERCH + FIGHT ENSHITTIFICATION\nThese are some of EFF's core fights and have been for over 35 years. EFF sues. EFF advocates. EFF codes. And EFF wins. EFF is the most profound and powerful disenshittifying force on the planet Earth, and I’ve been proud to fight alongside them for nearly 25 of those years. \nOne of the lessons you learn in battles with very long timelines against very powerful actors is that these battles are deeply serious, and because of that they must also be fun. “Enshittification” took off as a shorthand in part because of the minor license to vulgarity it confers. It's slightly crass for a reason: getting people to engage with the abstract issues of tech policy can be hard at the best of times. No one knows this better than my colleagues at EFF, who consistently surprise me with their ability to make complex, technical concepts concrete, memorable, and sometimes even joyful. \nWords matter, but so do visuals. For the cover of the U.S. edition of my book, Enshittification, designer Devin Washburn of No Ideas studio created an iconic variation of the \"pile of poo\" emoji, with angry eyebrows and a grawlix-scrawled censor bar over its mouth. It instantly became the symbol of enshittification I’d been looking for. \n\nI liked it so much I ordered a couple hundred enamel pins and a couple thousand vinyl stickers and handed them out to people I met on my 33-city book tour. Even when giving them away, I was inundated with requests to buy more of them. \nI've since bought out Devin's rights to the image and released it under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license—free for anyone to use, remix, or build on, including commercially, with attribution. The high-resolution files are on Wikimedia Commons, Flickr, and the Internet Archive (including a PSD with an ink-density adjustment layer). It belongs to the commons now. \nBut I made sure EFF had first crack at the design for their “official merch,” and they've done right by it. There are two items available now in the EFF shop, and all proceeds go directly to EFF's work defending digital rights. I’ve spent years admiring EFF’s merch and consistent, creative visual identity, so it fills me with pride to see this more-than-a-mere-poop-emoji in their shop. \nA recognizable visual shorthand is a genuine organizing tool. When someone sees the enshittification emoji, they know what the conversation is about. When you wear the pin or slap the sticker on your laptop, you're signaling that you understand what's happening to the internet, and that you know we can do better. \nYou can get a $5 sticker:\n\n\nOr a $10 pin: \n\n \n Because the design is CC-licensed, you don't have to buy one. You can make your own merch, your own swag, your own illustrations. I made a lawn flag for my front garden.\n \n\nBut if you do want to buy a sticker or pin, you can do so while supporting the most profound and powerful disenshittifying force on the planet Earth—the Electronic Frontier Foundation.\nSUPPORT EFF\nGET LimITED EDITION MERCH + FIGHT ENSHITTIFICATION",
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"caption": "Summary\nLlamaRisk recommends the following parameter changes based on user behavior, on-chain liquidity, and position health observed in the latest review of Aave V3 reserves.\nAave V3 Polygon:\n\nReduce supply cap for WPOL from 105,000,000 to 101,000,000.\nReduce supply cap for USDC (native) from 100,000,000 to 50,000,000.\nReduce supply cap for USDT0 from 90,000,000 to 45,000,000.\nReduce supply cap for USDC.e (bridged) from 12,000,000 to 4,390,000.\nReduce supply cap for DAI from 11,800,000 to 3,890,000.\nReduce supply cap for MaticX from 30,000,000 to 9,330,000.\nReduce supply cap for WETH from 32,000 to 15,000.\nReduce supply cap for LINK from 615,000 to 220,000.\nReduce supply cap for AAVE from 60,000 to 25,300.\nReduce supply cap for wstETH from 11,500 to 6,000.\nReduce supply cap for WBTC from 1,400 to 1,000.\nReduce borrow cap for USDC (native) from 48,080,000 to 45,000,000.\nReduce borrow cap for USDT0 from 85,000,000 to 40,500,000.\nReduce borrow cap for USDC.e (bridged) from 8,319,000 to 3,950,000.\nReduce borrow cap for DAI from 7,287,000 to 3,500,000.\n\nAave V3 BNB:\n\nIncrease borrow cap for WBNB from 12,000 to 15,600.\n\nWBNB (Aave V3 BNB)\nWBNB has reached 96.8% borrow cap utilization (11,611 / 12,000) on the Aave V3 BNB instance.\nBorrow Distribution\n\nSource: LlamaRisk, June 10, 2026\nThe top WBNB borrowers have a median health factor of 1.6. WBNB debt is predominantly borrowed against USDT and WBTC collateral, which account for 71.1% and 20.2% of the total collateral backing these positions, respectively.\nRecommendation\nGiven borrow cap utilization at 96.8% and a borrower base with health factors clustered above the liquidation threshold at a median of 1.61, we recommend increasing the borrow cap from 12,000 to 15,600, landing at approximately 74% post-change borrow cap utilization.\nCap Reductions\nThe following supply cap reductions are proposed primarily due to the limited onchain liquidity available for collateral-enabled assets on Polygon and the continued decline in their circulating market supply. Eight of the eleven active reserves on Aave V3 Polygon have their supply caps reduced to approximately 1.20x current outstanding supply, restoring roughly 20% headroom and landing each at approximately 83% post-change supply cap utilization. The supply caps for USDC, USDT0, and wstETH are reduced by approximately half, a smaller reduction that leaves these three reserves at approximately 58% to 70% post-change supply cap utilization. Borrow caps on USDC, USDC.e, USDT0, and DAI are reduced in step so that each remains at or below 0.9x the new supply cap, with all four lowered caps staying above current outstanding borrow.\n\nSource: LlamaRisk, June 10, 2026\nSpecification\nCaps\n\n\n\n\nInstance\nAsset\nCurrent Supply Cap\nRecommended Supply Cap\nCurrent Borrow Cap\nRecommended Borrow Cap\n\n\n\n\nAave V3 Polygon\nWPOL\n105,000,000\n101,000,000\n—\n—\n\n\nAave V3 Polygon\nUSDC\n100,000,000\n50,000,000\n48,080,000\n45,000,000\n\n\nAave V3 Polygon\nUSDT0\n90,000,000\n45,000,000\n85,000,000\n40,500,000\n\n\nAave V3 Polygon\nUSDC.e\n12,000,000\n4,390,000\n8,319,000\n3,950,000\n\n\nAave V3 Polygon\nDAI\n11,800,000\n3,890,000\n7,287,000\n3,500,000\n\n\nAave V3 Polygon\nMaticX\n30,000,000\n9,330,000\n—\n—\n\n\nAave V3 Polygon\nWETH\n32,000\n15,000\n11,000\n—\n\n\nAave V3 Polygon\nLINK\n615,000\n220,000\n—\n—\n\n\nAave V3 Polygon\nAAVE\n60,000\n25,300\n—\n—\n\n\nAave V3 Polygon\nwstETH\n11,500\n6,000\n—\n—\n\n\nAave V3 Polygon\nWBTC\n1,400\n1,000\n76\n—\n\n\nAave V3 BNB\nWBNB\n160,000\n—\n12,000\n15,600\n\n\n\nNext Steps\nWe will move forward and implement these updates via the Risk Steward process.\nDisclosure\nThis review was independently prepared by LlamaRisk, a DeFi risk service provider funded in part by the Aave DAO. LlamaRisk is not directly affiliated with the protocol(s) reviewed in this assessment and did not receive any compensation from the protocol(s) or their affiliated entities for this work.\nThe information provided should not be construed as legal, financial, tax, or professional advice.\n 1 post - 1 participant\n Read full topic",
"headline": "Risk Stewards: Supply and Borrow Cap Changes on Aave V3 / 2026.06.10",
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"caption": "Dogecoin is trading at $0.085 in early June 2026, which is about 88% below its all-time high but deep inside what one analyst believes is the most important technical setup the meme coin has seen since its pre-2021 launch sequence. The difference this time, however, is that the crypto market is no longer dealing with the same small meme coin from the last cycle but with a larger asset sitting in a different liquidity environment. Dogecoin Repeats Its Old Monthly Structure Technical analysis of Dogecoin’s price action on the monthly candlestick timeframe chart is showing evidence that the meme coin may be repeating the same long-cycle pattern that played out between 2014 and 2017 before the massive 2021 rally. The comparison, which was done by crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade, compares two major Dogecoin cycles, with both showing a long consolidation phase, a falling wedge, and then a breakout attempt. Related Reading: Bad News For Bitcoin: Historical Lows Show The Bottom Actually Lies Below $30,000 In the first cycle, Dogecoin spent years grinding through a wide downtrend wedge range between 2016 and early 2017 after its previous crash in 2014. After that, the price then entered the parabolic phase that eventually carried DOGE into its 2021 top. Dogecoin began 2021 trading at less than one cent, somewhere around $0.004. By reaching its all-time high in May 2021, Dogecoin saw an increase of over 18,000% in just five months. However, that completed structure produced a rally of about 29,000% from the 2015 low. The current structure, drawn from the 2021 peak into 2026, appears to be following the same sequence. Dogecoin first entered a broad post-bull-market decline after 2021 that ended in 2023, and is now trading inside another falling wedge compression on the monthly timeframe. The dotted projection on the chart predicts that a breakout from this structure could lead to a much larger expansion phase later in the cycle. Dogecoin Price Chart. Source: @TATrader_Alan On X What A Completed Pattern Would Mean For Dogecoin The optimistic case in this technical analysis depends on how Dogecoin reacts with the falling wedge. If Dogecoin breaks out of the monthly falling wedge, then the comparison to 2021 will have more significance. Related Reading: Institutions Are Loading Up On XRP, But Liquidity Tells A Different Story The projection on the chart by Trader Tardigrade maps a potential move that starts with a rally above the current range, then a pullback, and later a far larger parabolic rally into the end of the decade. The projected arc ascends to the $3 to $5 range, a possible rejection back below $1, and then a rally to triple digits, which is consistent with what a 29,000% move from current price levels would produce. Repeating that kind of rally would require far deeper inflows than the previous cycle, but Dogecoin now has a stronger environment of utility and avenues for institutional inflows. For instance, House of Doge and MoonPay recently announced their partnership to enable DOGE payments across over 6,000 merchants, and possible Spot Dogecoin ETF inflows are another institutional facilitator. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com",
"headline": "Dogecoin Is One Step Away From The Same Pattern That Triggered 2021’s 29,000% Rally, What Next?",
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"caption": "This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology. The “steroid olympics” were a circus—and a window into our culture —Amit Katwala A couple of weeks ago, at a $50 million arena built in a casino parking lot in Las…",
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"caption": "Bitcoin closed the week of June 5 with a nearly 20% decline — its sharpest single-week drop since the FTX collapse in November 2022 — but on-chain analyst Ali Martinez is pushing back against the prevailing fear, arguing in a technical post on X that the market is approaching a major macro accumulation cycle rather than the beginning of a deeper structural breakdown. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Rally Has A Problem: Demand Is Drying Up Martinez’s case rests on a convergence of on-chain metrics that have historically accompanied market bottoms rather than preceded further selling. Bitcoin’s decline to $59,000 — its lowest level since 2024 — flushed out what he describes as “overleveraged premiums” across the board, per his X post. That kind of forced deleveraging, he argues, is typically what creates the conditions for a genuine bottom rather than a temporary bounce. BTC's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview The Bitcoin Metrics Behind The Call Two data points sit at the center of Martinez’s analysis. The first is long-term holder behavior. During the recent downswing, long-term investors distributed more than $3.25 billion in spot Bitcoin, temporarily pushing exchange reserves higher and increasing potential short-term selling pressure. That distribution, Martinez notes, is consistent with what has historically marked the final phase of supply absorption before accumulation begins. The second is supply held at a loss. Bitcoin’s drop to $59,000 pushed more than 10.46 million BTC into an underwater position. According to Martinez’s post, every previous instance where the supply-in-loss metric crossed the 10 million threshold has accurately timed macro bottoms in prior cycles — a signal he considers one of the most reliable indicators available. Bitcoin $BTC market bottom is closer than you think. Here’s where I’m planning to buy. https://t.co/DrI4OJXnL7 pic.twitter.com/j3YQNzw02G — Ali Charts (@alicharts) June 10, 2026 Where The Bottom Could Land Rather than calling a specific price floor, Martinez identified two accumulation zones based on MVRV band analysis — the ratio of Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value. The most reliable accumulation windows historically appear when MVRV settles between the 1.0 and 0.8 bands, which currently correspond to approximately $53,900 and $43,150, per his analysis. He is also tracking three key moving averages as structural reference points: the 200-week simple moving average at $62,800, the 300-week at $55,000, and the 400-week at $42,500. Fellow analyst Benjamin Cowen separately echoed the assessment, telling his audience that investor psychology is approaching the territory historically associated with major cycle bottoms — a phase he estimates could extend through Q3 and potentially into October. Related Reading: XRP Being Suppressed? Researcher Reveals Why The Token Isn’t Soaring As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at around $63,000, recovering from the $59,000 lows as the market processes whether the worst week since FTX marked a capitulation bottom or simply the latest step in a longer correction. Cover image from Grok, BTCUD chart from Tradingview",
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"caption": "Bitcoin may need to climb back above $65,000 before any meaningful recovery can take hold — but getting there looks harder by the day. Market analyst Michaël van de Poppe said a break past that level could open the door to a rally toward the $72,000 to $74,000 range, yet the broader demand picture suggests that kind of move is far from guaranteed. Related Reading: A 400 Billion Shiba Inu Surprise: Whale Wallet Springs Back To Life #Bitcoin is stalling beneath $65K as breaking that level would trigger a strong run to $72-74K. The $65K support level was the previous level of support after the crash early in February and is now acting as the resistance to break through. If it happens for Bitcoin’s price to… pic.twitter.com/GOaN7KuT0O — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) June 9, 2026 Why The Numbers Look Ugly Right Now The 30-day combined growth of spot and perpetual futures demand has fallen to around -650,000 BTC, a reading that has appeared only three times since 2019. CryptoQuant analyst Moreno flagged the figure as a sign that the market has entered one of its weakest demand phases in years, with both regular buying and derivatives exposure falling at the same time. That means fewer buyers are available to absorb any fresh selling pressure. Bitcoin has dropped roughly 3.40% this week alone, following a 14% decline the week before. The monthly loss now stands at 16%, with prices hovering near $61,000. Bitcoin Demand Hits a Level Seen Only 3 Times Since 2019 “The current setup therefore looks less like a confirmed reversal and more like the beginning of a final cleansing phase.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/Qk0lrzTDky — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) June 9, 2026 What History Actually Shows The -650,000 BTC demand level has not historically marked a bottom. Based on Moreno’s analysis, it has tended to mark the beginning of a difficult stretch rather than the end of one. The first instance came in December 2019, when Bitcoin was trading near $6,500 and demand conditions were already deteriorating ahead of the COVID-19 market crash. The demand indicator hit extreme contraction before prices collapsed further in March 2020, eventually bottoming near $3,800. A second instance appeared in January 2022, when Bitcoin had already fallen from its then-record high of $69,000 to around $32,951. Demand recovered in the following weeks, and prices rebounded into March — but the recovery did not last. Bitcoin resumed its decline and did not hit its bear-market floor of roughly $15,500 until November 2022, nearly 10 months later. Related Reading: A 400 Billion Shiba Inu Surprise: Whale Wallet Springs Back To Life The Difficult Phase Ahead Moreno believes the current setup looks more like the start of a final cleansing phase than a confirmed turning point. He expects a period of heightened volatility before the market settles into a prolonged stretch of sideways trading with low participation. That kind of stagnation, he argues, may prove harder on investors than the price drop itself. Van de Poppe, for his part, called the recent selloff largely irrational, though he acknowledged Bitcoin remains pinned below the $65,000 level that once served as support and has since become resistance. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView",
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"caption": "GitLab Transcend, our customer event showcasing our roadmap, success stories, and industry research just wrapped. Here's what we announced and demonstrated:Next-generation source code management, a Git engine rebuilt for agent-scale concurrency, now in private betaGitLab Orbit, our context graph for the full software lifecycle, now in public betaAgents for security and governance for agents, identity, policy, audit, and approval around every agent action, now in private betaGitLab Duo Agent Platform, our orchestration system where agents pick up issues, review code, and fix pipelines without pulling developers out of flow, generally available since JanuaryGitLab Flex, a buying model that bends to how AI adoption actually happens, now accepting ordersIt's never been easier or faster to write code with agents, our research across more than 1,500 developers and tech leaders showed that 91% of organizations now run two or more AI coding tools, and 54% run three or more. Some of our customers' codebases are growing up to five times in a single year. But unmanaged, that speed creates chaos.Catch up on all the action from Transcend with our on-demand webcast.Agentic coding — speed with chaosFor most organizations, the answer to increasing the pace of innovation has been AI coding. But coding agents built on a fragmented software lifecycle isn't agentic engineering, it's a shortcut to inefficiency and risk.We see it across our customers in recurring forms. Infrastructure built for human pace buckles under machine-scale concurrency in source code management. Agents have context around the code but not the full software development lifecycle (SDLC), so they stall out in large monorepos and give up across repos as the context window fills. Code, dependencies, and deployments change faster than teams can govern them. And fixed contracts force teams to guess at seats and credits a year ahead, in the era hardest to forecast.The same research shows the strain: 73% worry about maintaining the code, and only 21% see productivity gains across the full SDLC.None of this is a reason to slow down. It's a reason to build the agentic infrastructure that turns the speed of agentic coding into strong ROI.Agentic coding + GitLab agentic infrastructure, delivering speed with controlGitLab is already the platform where enterprises build and ship software. Source code management (SCM), CI/CD, governance, deployment, and more all live in one place, and our platform currently serves more than 50 million users and 100,000 organizations. We sit in the path of every software team and the agents that touch their code, pipelines, or production.Think of the platform as a living system, with four parts that work together the same way whether a human or an agent is doing the work. The motor system handles execution at agent scale, the source control, pipelines, and deployments that get software built and shipped. The nervous system gives every agent and human the context to make good decisions. The immune system puts proactive governance and security around every action.And the orchestration system coordinates the other three, letting teams and their agents plan and carry out work across the full lifecycle. Whether the brain doing the work is human or agentic, it draws on all four.At Transcend, we announced these innovations and a new buying program, and demonstrated how they come together with intelligent orchestration enabled by GitLab Duo Agent Platform.Motor system: Next-gen SCM rebuilt for concurrencySCM is the part of the platform worth focusing on here, because the Git backend buckles under agent load.Git was built for a distributed workforce. We clone entire repositories to work on them, with branching and code merges scalable enough for hundreds of people around the globe to work in parallel. That model breaks when each team member runs hundreds of agents, resulting in:Clone tax. Clone repo to read one file, for every agent and every retry.Concurrency collapse. Thousands of sessions hit a human-scale backend at once, producing bottlenecks and unpredictable availability.No isolation. Agents share accounts and one branch space, so they pollute the repo, leave no clean way to discard work, and no record of which agent did what.That's why we previewed the next-generation SCM, in private beta. It runs on the Git protocol for backward compatibility, with a redesigned backend and interfaces built for agents. So you can run agents on any repo, fan them out by the thousands, and let them experiment safely.Our team has been working to validate the architectural direction: same Git compatibility and auditability, with a different motor underneath, designed for agentic access from the start.Early internal results are promising: up to 2x fewer tokens, up to 50x faster wall clock time, and up to 1,000x less network traffic.Nervous system: GitLab Orbit to answer the toughest questions from agentsAgents are adept at writing code and far less deft at navigating the system around it. They can see the code they're touching but not the full lifecycle, and that gap shows up as wasted work.In a large monorepo, agents can burn too many iterations and too many tokens, and they take too long to get an answer. Across repos, they may fail outright as the context window fills and the agent gives up. The result is work that looks correct but gets reverted, and teams spending more time fixing agent output than the agent saved.GitLab Orbit, now in public beta, is the context graph for the entire software lifecycle. It continuously maps code, work items, pipelines, deployments, and production signals into a single live graph, so agents reason from first-party context instead of fragmented signals. Engineers query the same graph through the Data Explorer to trace changes and investigate incidents, which means every decision draws from one source of truth.In our early internal tests, agents grounded with Orbit had up to 11 times faster response, were up to 4.5 times more cost effective, and had up to 45 times fewer hallucinations.Our customer, Compare the Market, A/B tested GitLab Orbit against a RAG-based approach and a no-context baseline using identical prompts and models, and found: Graph-grounded agents placed inline review comments in the correct location 70% of the time (0.696 accuracy), vs. 58% (0.577) for RAG. Compare the Market validated the approach on 79 real merge requests, where graph-based context outperformed conventional retrieval on comment placement accuracy.Read more: Introducing GitLab Orbit: Full code and lifecycle context, in one queryBuild on Orbit at the Transcend hackathonWant to put Orbit to work yourself? From June 10-24, 2026, the Transcend hackathon invites the community to build with the lifecycle context graph. Contribute directly to the Orbit codebase, or build agents, flows, and skills on top of it and publish them to the AI Catalog.Everyone is welcome, from experienced contributors to first-timers, and cash prizes are on the table. Learn moreImmune system: Agents for security and governance for agentsIn the agentic era, the security and compliance exposure every team manages keeps multiplying. The faster agents ship code, the faster they ship the vulnerabilities that come with it. The cycle compounds: the more code agents generate, the more coverage gaps you uncover; the more you scan, the more findings you have to triage and fix; and the more agents you run, the more you need to prove each one did the right thing, under the right policy, to stand behind your risk posture.That cycle is why, building on GitLab Ultimate, we've added agents for security and introduced governance for agents.The agents for security work the exposure side: scanning, triaging, and resolving vulnerabilities as fast as agents create them, so the volume agents generate doesn't bury the teams responsible for securing it.Governance for agents, in private beta, works the trust side. When agents push code, touch dependencies, and trigger deployments at scale, the question shifts from \"did we scan?\" to \"which agent did what, under which policy, and can we prove it?\"Governance for agents puts identity, policy, audit, and approval around every agent action, with real-time visibility into inputs, reasoning, tool calls, and high-risk or anomalous activity across the organization. When something unexpected happens, the full execution context and audit trail are already there: what changed, which policy allowed it, and who signed off.Orchestration system: GitLab Duo Agent PlatformThese capabilities above are infrastructure. GitLab Duo Agent Platform is the orchestration system that brings them together in the work developers do every day, and adoption has taken off: weekly active users have grown 10 times since we announced general availability in January.The friction in software delivery was never the work itself, developers know how to write code, review it, and fix a pipeline. It's the context-switching, the waiting, and the handoffs between each of those steps, where time leaks out and focus breaks.On GitLab Duo Agent Platform, agents work across that full loop: picking up a well-scoped issue and opening a merge request, reviewing it against the team's own rules rather than generic best practices, and resolving the review feedback that comes back.The quality holds up against independent scrutiny. GitLab Duo Code Review placed in the top five of AI code review tools scored on the Martian Offline Benchmark. And because these flows can run automatically on event triggers, a failing pipeline can be diagnosed and fixed without pulling multiple engineers out of flow, with the platform distinguishing a break that needs a code change from one that just needs a rerun.GitLab Flex: Commit once, reshape your seats and AI spendThe agentic era made your needs harder to predict, and the way you buy software hasn't caught up. Six months out, you don't know how many seats you'll need, how much AI your teams will consume, or which new capabilities you'll want to turn on, yet a traditional contract fixes all three up front and won't budge until renewal. Guess high and you pay for idle seats; guess low and adopting anything new means re-opening procurement.That's what GitLab Flex, available now, solves. It's one annual commitment you reshape month to month across seats, AI usage, and new capabilities, all drawing from the same agreement, with no amendment and no new procurement cycle. When a team rolls off a project, you reallocate next month's reservations toward another team or toward AI. When a capability ships after you sign, you turn it on from the commitment you already have. Seats and usage live under one commitment, so you can move budget between them as adoption shifts. (For background on the usage-based foundation Flex builds on, see this introduction to GitLab Credits.)Read more: GitLab Flex: Commit once, reshape your seats and AI spendThe difference between coding and shippingAgentic coding only gets you part of the way. The coding agent generates the change; GitLab's agentic infrastructure checks it against your full context, workflows, and guardrails and makes it safe to ship, at the speed agents work and the scale enterprises run.Get started todayGitLab Orbit is available now in public beta: join the beta program. Next-generation SCM and governance for agents capabilities are in private beta, and you can request early access here. Agents for security are available now in GitLab Ultimate. Duo Agent Platform is generally available. Finally, GitLab Flex is accepting requests for orders now: To learn more, get in touch.Our mission is to unlock every team to ship trusted software at the speed of imagination, and we cannot wait to see what you build.",
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"caption": "Long-term crypto holders rarely want to sell. Whether it is Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, or other major digital assets, many investors view their holdings as long-term capital rather than short-term trading inventory. The challenge, however, is that markets move, opportunities emerge, and liquidity is still necessary. That creates a familiar balancing act across crypto: how do […]",
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"caption": "XRP’s recent pullback may have more to do with leverage flushes and broader market weakness than a coordinated exit by large holders, according to CryptoQuant contributor Pelin Ay. The analyst pointed to declining XRP inflows into Binance, particularly among million-token transfers, as evidence that whale selling pressure has not intensified during the drawdown. Ay shared a CryptoQuant chart tracking XRP Ledger exchange inflows to Binance by value band, alongside XRP’s price in dollar terms. The dataset separates inflows into bands ranging from less than 1,000 XRP to more than 1 million XRP, allowing analysts to distinguish between smaller exchange deposits and transfers more likely associated with whales or institutional-scale wallets. Related Reading: XRP Just Printed A Rare Binance Signal As Market Volatility Accelerates XRP Whale Selling Pressure Eases As Binance Inflows Drop According to Ay, the largest transfer cohort has historically played an important role in Binance inflow activity. “Transfers exceeding 1 million XRP are dominant in the chart during certain periods,” she wrote. “This shows that the majority of XRP inflows to Binance are coming from whale and institutional-scale addresses. In particular, the consistently high levels of these inflows between 2021-2025 reveal that major players are actively using Binance.” The key shift, in her view, is what happened after XRP’s 2025 peak. The chart shows a visible decline in the largest Binance inflow bands after a period in which XRP approached the $3 area, suggesting that large holders have not been sending tokens to the exchange at the same intensity seen during earlier market phases. In exchange-flow analysis, rising inflows are often interpreted as potential sell-side supply, since assets moved to trading venues can be sold, used as collateral, or repositioned. Ay argued that the current structure does not resemble prior periods of aggressive distribution. “In the past, before major drops, there were usually sudden high spikes in the 100K–1M XRP and 1M+ XRP groups. Currently, at the end of the chart, there is no such extraordinary inflow surge. Therefore, on-chain data currently reduces the likelihood of aggressive whale selling and mass profit-taking.” That distinction is central to her thesis. If XRP were undergoing a classic whale-led sell-off, the chart would be expected to show a sharp increase in large deposits to Binance, especially from the 100,000-to-1-million XRP and 1-million-plus XRP bands. Instead, Ay says the opposite is visible: inflows have cooled while price has weakened. Related Reading: XRP Is Oversold On Every Time Frame, And This Could Be The Bullish Signal Everyone Is Waiting For “The chart suggests that the decline is largely due to leverage liquidations and overall market weakness,” she added. “Because in normal hard bear markets, much higher XRP inflows to exchanges are typically seen.” The implication is not that XRP has no downside risk. Rather, Ay’s reading is that the current sell-off lacks one of the more damaging on-chain signatures often associated with deeper capitulation: whales sending unusually large amounts of XRP to exchanges. That makes the source of selling pressure important. A liquidation-driven move can accelerate quickly when leveraged positions are forced out, but it does not necessarily imply that long-term holders are actively distributing into the market. Ay also linked the post-peak reduction in inflows to weakening spot supply pressure. “If Binance inflows continue to remain low, selling supply will decrease,” she wrote. “With an increase in demand, it becomes easier for XRP to move back to the $1.8-2.0 region. Especially if sharp rises do not resume in the 1M+ XRP columns, this structure can be maintained.” The condition matters. Her argument depends on large Binance inflows remaining muted, particularly in the 1-million-plus XRP band. A renewed spike in those columns would weaken the analysis, as it would suggest that large wallets are once again moving meaningful supply toward the exchange. At press time, XRP traded at $1.1444. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "A 2021 Citibank document that used the phrase “Regulated Internet of Value” sits at the center of a new XRP debate, after researcher Jesse of Apex Crypto Insights argued the wording was later shifted to “Regulated Liability Network” because the link to Ripple was too obvious. Related Reading: Security Milestone: XRP Lending Protocol Completes Military-Grade Assessment He says that paper trail, along with years of weak price action, points to a token that may be held down for reasons that are bigger than ordinary market trading. A Price That Would Not Move XRP’s chart is the first thing Jesse points to. The token reached $3.84 during the 2018 bull run and later touched $3.60 earlier in this cycle, yet it has spent much of the past decade moving sideways while Bitcoin climbed far higher. Jesse called that mismatch hard to explain under a normal market setup and said, in his view, suppression is one possible answer. The claim is not presented as proof. Jesse frames it as his opinion, but he ties it to a wider argument about how the financial system may change if XRP ends up in a deeper role than simple payments. The Internet Of Value Thesis Jesse says XRP should be viewed as part of an “internet of value” rather than just another crypto asset. He links that idea to Ripple’s Interledger Protocol, which he says is meant to move value in the same way the internet moves information. From there, he says the trail runs through several institutional documents and speeches. According to Jesse, Citibank’s Tony McLaughlin has described the Regulated Liability Network and the shared ledger idea as the same concept, and he says the Bank for International Settlements has also talked about a unified ledger that could replace correspondent banking and even Swift. The researcher’s case is built on that chain of references. He argues that if major banks are preparing a new settlement system, an asset tied to that system may not be allowed to swing wildly in price, since volatility would be a problem for anything meant to function as a reserve or settlement layer. Related Reading: SpaceX Exposure Comes To Bybit Through New Tokenized Product – Details What The Theory Still Lacks Jesse does not present hard evidence of manipulation. His argument is based on interpretation rather than any public proof of coordinated price control, and it ultimately leaves the question unresolved, with no definitive conclusion drawn on market behavior. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView",
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"caption": "Bitcoin has been forming a pattern for years now, and even with the uncertain price movements, this pattern has now finally be completed. This was explained by crypto analyst Bitcoin Teddy on the X social media platform, showing this pattern, how it was formed, and what the implications are for this formation on the Bitcoin price. The Mid-Year Cup And Handle Pattern That Was Years In The Making In the post, the crypto analyst pointed out that the Bitcoin price has completed a Cup and Handle pattern formation. Unlike some Cup And Handle patterns that are formed in a relatively short time, the analyst says this one has actually been forming for years, and now it’s finally ready to play out. Related Reading: Dogecoin Could Rally 300x And Cross $20, Analyst Claims This pattern was completed with the most recent Bitcoin retest of the $60,000 support. This support was broken briefly, but the price quickly recovered. What this suggests is the formation of the handle part of the pattern after the cup was completed over the years. To put this in perspective, the crypto analyst explained that three things needed to happen. These include the breakout, the retest, and a structure confirmation. The breakout was completed when the price recovered. Then, when the price crashed below $60,000, the retest was done. Now, the confirmation is in place as the Bitcoin price has begun to move upward again. What comes next is even more important since the completion of a Cup and Handle pattern has historically been a precursor to a bull trend. Related Reading: XRP Pundit Says Pay Attention To This Pattern That Everyone Is Missing As the analyst explains, the resulting price surge will not be something like a 20% breakout or so. Historically, a breakout from this pattern would see the price rise multiples of where it was when the pattern was finally confirmed. In this case, the resulting breakout is expected to send the Bitcoin price to new all-time highs. The minimum target placed with the analysis puts the top of this trend at $220,000, which would mean an almost 300% move from where the Bitcoin price is currently trading. What this means is that $220,000 could only be the start of this move if the momentum builds much higher than expected. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "Agents are good at writing code. They're far worse at navigating the system around it: the related code, the pipelines that run it, the deployments that ship it, the work items that asked for it, and the teams that own it. That gap is where AI-assisted engineering breaks down today.In a large monorepo, the gap shows up as wasted iterations, blown token budgets, and code that looks correct but gets reverted. Across repos, it's worse: the context window fills before the agent finds the answer, and the task fails outright. Teams end up spending more time fixing agent output than the agent saved them.GitLab Orbit, now in public beta, closes the gap. It's a live, queryable graph of all your code, merge requests, pipelines, deployments, vulnerabilities, and ownership, with every relationship between them kept current as your team works. Agents reason from first-party GitLab data instead of stitched-together tool calls. Engineers can query the same graph through the Data Explorer to trace changes, investigate incidents, and answer the cross-system questions that today take hours of manual reconstruction.Proven on real merge requests at Compare the MarketCompare the Market, a U.K. price comparison platform, tested four context retrieval approaches for an internal AI code reviewer across 79 real merge requests. The Orbit-grounded reviewer placed accurate inline comments about 70% of the time, against about 58% for retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and captured more of the key changes in summaries (68% vs. 66%). RAG underperformed every other approach, including no context at all.\"Orbit gave us an AI code reviewer that actually understands our codebase, not just the diff in front of it. We tested it against RAG and a few other approaches across real merge requests, and the gap was clear. Better comment placement, better summaries of what actually changed. RAG, which we'd assumed would be the natural solution, ended up performing worse than no context at all. For us, that result spoke for itself.\"\n- Ryan Harvey, Head of AI Engineering, Compare the MarketWhat you can do with GitLab OrbitHere are two examples of how you can use GitLab Orbit in your environment.Scenario 1: With Claude Code or other coding agentsThe work you already do, faster and more accurateSay, you already run Claude Code. When you point it at a large monorepo, it spends its first stretch, and a real share of its token budget, just crawling files to work out where things live and what connects to what. In a big enough codebase it follows the wrong threads, misses a dependency, or runs out of room before it starts the actual work.Connect Claude Code to GitLab Orbit through Model Context Protocol (MCP) and it stops crawling. It asks the graph the questions it was trying to reconstruct by iterating where does this code live, what depends on it, which tests and pipelines cover it. Instead, it gets a precise answer in one or two queries. On the same tasks, with the same model, it’s up to 11 times faster, uses up to 4.5 times fewer tokens, and generates up to 45 times fewer hallucinations.Scenario 2: With GitLab Duo Agent PlatformAnswers that were never possible beforeSome questions were never really answerable by an agent, because the answer isn't in the code — it's in how code connects to pipelines, deployments, vulnerabilities, and ownership across your whole system. Agents on GitLab Duo Agent Platform query Orbit natively, so you can now ask them things that used to mean a manual investigation across four tools.Triage pipeline failures across the lifecycle. Today, an agent looking at a failing pipeline sees one job in isolation. With Orbit, it traces the failure to the change that introduced it, the projects where the same job is now drifting, and the merge requests still in flight that will encounter the same problem. To run discovery, Orbit issues graph queries like this one:MATCH (job:CiJob {status: \"failed\", name: $job_name})-[:RAN_IN]- >(pipeline)-[:FOR]- >(mr:MergeRequest)\nRETURN mr.title, mr.author, pipeline.started_at, mr.project_id\nORDER BY pipeline.started_at DESC LIMIT 20\nOne query, every in-flight MR that will hit the same failing job, across every project in your group. Your on-call team resolves the incident once instead of three teams resolving it three separate times.Map vulnerability blast radius in minutes. Finding the vulnerable code is the easy part. Mapping the exposure (which services include the component, which pipelines build them, which environments they run in, which teams own them) is what slows teams down. One Orbit query returns the full graph, owner-by-owner. Security ships a remediation plan in the hour a CVE lands, not the week after, with each affected component already assigned to its owner.Answer cross-system questions on demand. Cycle time by team, broken down by pipeline failure rate, joined to deployment frequency. One question, one answer, no dashboard request, no custom SQL. Engineering managers answer the question live in the executive review, not in a Slack follow-up three days later.Scope migrations against current dependencies. Planning a migration today means searching for a shared component and hoping the search catches the downstream dependencies. With Orbit, every dependent service, job, environment, and owner returns in a single result. Platform teams commit to a migration date and meet it, instead of discovering hidden dependents three weeks in.The graph supports any workflow where your team needs to understand how the system connects: code review, incident response, release planning, security, migration planning.How GitLab Orbit worksOrbit ingests software development lifecycle data via change-data-capture into ClickHouse, parses code in 12 languages (Ruby, Java, Kotlin, Python, TypeScript, JavaScript, Rust, Go, C#, C, C++, PHP) through the Rails internal API, and serves the combined graph over a Cypher-like DSL, MCP, REST, and the GitLab CLI.At GitLab's own scale, the indexer covers over 40,000 projects, 500 million nodes, and 2 billion edges in under 45 minutes. An event-driven engine picks up every change as it ships, so the graph stays current.Indexing runs as a separate service; query traffic never hits your GitLab instance. Authorization mirrors GitLab permissions, so agents see exactly what their user can see in the UI. The query engine is built like a compiler: Every query goes through validation, planning, optimization, and security passes before it touches the database, so query speed doesn't degrade as your data grows.There is no separate data infrastructure to stand up. Orbit builds on data GitLab already captures: issues, merge requests, pipelines, code, security findings, deployments, and incidents. You get value from day one with no new instrumentation.Agents on GitLab Duo Agent Platform query the graph natively. External agents like Claude Code, Codex, and OpenCode connect through MCP and the GitLab CLI. Custom agents and internal tooling connect through REST. One graph, shared across your engineering organization.Engineers query the same graphThe Data Explorer is the engineer-facing surface. Same graph, no agent in the way. Useful for the work that doesn't fit a fixed prompt: investigating an incident, tracing how a dependency spreads across services, figuring out why one area of the codebase keeps breaking CI. The answers come in seconds instead of hours of reconstruction across Git, CI, deploy tools, and dashboards.Try Orbit nowGitLab Orbit is currently available in public beta for GitLab.com Premium and Ultimate customers. 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"caption": "The agentic era made your needs harder to predict, and the way you buy software hasn't caught up. Six months out, you don't know how many seats you'll need, how much AI your teams will consume, or which new capabilities you'll want to turn on. Yet the contract you sign today fixes all three up front and won't budge until renewal. GitLab Flex was built to solve this predicament. It's one annual commitment you can reshape month to month across seats, AI usage, and new capabilities, without re-procurement.Fixed contracts, moving needsThe shift to agentic software engineering introduced uncertainty on three fronts at once:How many seats. The agentic era is changing who builds. Some companies are adding people who never worked in GitLab before so they can build directly on the platform, and want to grow seats. Others are reshaping their org structure and contractor mix around agents, which can push seat needs up or down. Your seat count six months out moves in both directions, and an annual contract locks you in with a single guess.How much AI usage. Agent usage grows on its own curve of use cases, enablement, and technology advancements.Which capabilities. New agentic infrastructure capabilities ship constantly. You can't know at signing which ones you'll want to adopt mid-year.A traditional contract asks you to lock all three in advance and live with the guess until renewal. Guess high and you overpay for idle seats and capacity you never use. Guess low and adopting anything new means re-opening procurement cycles that stall the team right when it has momentum. Either way, the contract is fixed while your needs keep moving.Annual budgets adapted monthlyGitLab Flex is one annual dollar commitment against a published rate card. From that single commitment you draw down platform seats, GitLab Credits, and eligible usage-based capabilities — across GitLab.com multi-tenant SaaS, Self-Managed (including air-gapped), and GitLab Dedicated single-tenant SaaS. The point is that the commitment flexes on exactly the three things you can't predict.Adjust seats without waiting for renewal. When a team wraps a project and rolls off, you don't keep paying for idle seats until the contract comes up again. You can reallocate next month's reservations toward another team's seats, or toward AI usage inside the existing agreement.Scale AI usage with predictable economics. Consumption draws from your annual commitment at the published rate. Usage above the full commitment bills on-demand at $1 per credit, so a busy month doesn't turn into a surprise. Larger commitments unlock better unit pricing, and reserved capacity costs less than unplanned usage.Add new capabilities without new procurement. Eligible capabilities released after you sign land on the same rate card. When you want to turn one on, you draw it from the commitment you already have without the added steps of re-procurement.If you've used consumption pricing elsewhere — cloud credits, observability credits — the drawdown will feel familiar. Here's what's different: With Flex, your seats and your usage live under the same commitment, so you can move budget between them. Most models keep seat licenses and usage credits in separate buckets you can't rebalance without going back to the table.One agreement, any mixA single Flex agreement can combine any of the following, all drawing from the same annual commitment:Platform seats. GitLab Premium and Ultimate at published rates, with volume discounts tied to your commitment level. (The Flex volume discount is the starting point for seat discounts, automatically applied based on total commitment size. Seat discounting can go above the Flex discount level with additional approvals.)GitLab Credits. Credit-metered capabilities like GitLab Duo Agent Platform, hosted runners, and artifact management, each at a published credit rate.Every deployment type. GitLab.com, Self-Managed, Dedicated, and air-gapped, all under one agreement — so your mix can shift over the term without restructuring.Volume economics with spend controlsLarger annual commitments unlock better unit pricing across the rate card, and reserved capacity costs less than unplanned usage.Subscription-level and per-user caps help your team stick to budgets along with admin controls at the project-group level.Unreserved seats draw at the effective price, the same pre-negotiated rate as reserved seats.Usage above the full Flex commitment bills at on-demand rates at $1 per credit or your negotiated per-seat price.Cloud-connected customers are billed automatically; air-gapped customers are invoiced twice a year.Keep your current plan through renewalGitLab Premium and GitLab Ultimate remain available at direct seat pricing. Flex is the recommended structure for new agreements, but existing customers can continue on their current contract through renewal. With Flex, tier capabilities do not change: GitLab Premium and Ultimate features remain.If you are approaching renewal and want to evaluate Flex, your account team can model both options against your current capabilities and AI usage so you can compare before committing.Start with a model built for what comes nextThe shift to agentic software engineering is not only a product shift. It is a budgeting and planning shift. GitLab Flex gives organizations one agreement for platform and AI spend, plus a clearer operating model for managing both and a structure built to keep pace as needs change.Customers can request orders with GitLab Flex now, with fulfillment rolling out throughout the quarter.Request GitLab FlexTo explore the full set of platform innovations announced at Transcend, including GitLab Orbit, Agentic Git, and AI Governance, visit our What's New portal.",
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"caption": "Bitcoin is already being eyed for a move toward $65,000 if a US-Iran deal is sealed, with US President Donald Trump saying such an agreement could be signed within two or three days. Related Reading: A 400 Billion Shiba Inu Surprise: Whale Wallet Springs Back To Life The top crypto asset had also clawed back from recent lows near $59,500 and was trading around $62,350 as traders weighed the odds of a shift in Middle East tensions. Trump Sets A Tight Timeline Trump said on Monday that talks were in their final stretch and that he did not see major obstacles left. He described the deal as a strong one and tied the talks to wider efforts to calm the fighting in the region. The comments came after reports that Trump warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that continuing military action could leave Israel with less US backing. He later wrote on Truth Social that Iran and Israel were both looking for an immediate ceasefire while peace talks kept moving. Deal Hopes Meet Old Doubts The latest timeline has not quieted skepticism. Trump has raised hopes of a near-term deal before, and the new comments landed after weeks of similar claims that never turned into a signed agreement. Some of the hardest issues are still unresolved, including sanctions, nuclear limits, and long-term security guarantees. Reuters has also reported that earlier talks left the sides split over frozen funds and the future of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. 🚨 TRUMP: IRAN DEAL COULD BE DAYS AWAY PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS THERE IS A “VERY GOOD CHANCE” OF REACHING A DEAL WITH IRAN IN THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS “WE’RE VERY CLOSE.” WHAT HAPPENS TO OIL IF A DEAL GETS DONE? pic.twitter.com/YpXuhpDCNm — Money Ape (@TheMoneyApe) June 9, 2026 That is why traders are treating the latest remarks as one more step, not a finish line. Reports suggest that a successful deal could open the door first to the $65,000 area and, with stronger buying, to $70,000 and beyond. Oil Markets Still In The Frame Oil is part of the same trade. Reuters reported that crude fell on Tuesday after Iran and Israel said they had halted attacks, with Brent at $92.60 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate at $89.10. The Strait of Hormuz remains the key pressure point, since it handles a large share of global oil and gas flows, and any easing of tension there could cool prices further. There were also reports that the market has swung on and off this storyline before, with each new round of hope meeting fresh warnings soon after. Related Reading: Security Milestone: XRP Lending Protocol Completes Military-Grade Assessment For Bitcoin, that leaves a narrow path. A deal that cools oil and broadens risk appetite could help crypto, but the market is still waiting for an actual signature, not just another promise that talks are close. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView",
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"caption": "The founder of Capriole Investments has highlighted how Bitcoin is at the threshold of a zone that has historically provided the best long-term opportunities. Bitcoin Has Returned To Its Production Cost In a new post on X, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has pointed out that Bitcoin is back at its Production Cost. The “Production Cost” here refers to an indicator that estimates the global average USD cost of producing one token of the cryptocurrency per day. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stablecoin Ratio Drops To Extreme Low—What It Means For BTC BTC uses a consensus mechanism called the proof-of-work (PoW) in which validators called miners compete against each other using computing power to gain the chance to add the next block to the chain. Today, the blockchain is so competitive that the average miner requires a ton of machines to have a shot at making revenue. Setting up mining farms can require a significant initial investment, but what determines whether the miner can earn an income is the cost required to keep these facilities running. A high amount of computing power is generally costly to run, with the main expense coming in the form of electricity bills. As the below chart shared by Edwards shows, the Bitcoin Production Cost is about $62,650 right now. This level is about where the spot price of Bitcoin also happens to currently be trading. Thus, if the estimate of the metric is anything to go by, miners are just breaking even on their operations. Following this development, BTC is now on the boundary of a zone that has been significant for the cryptocurrency in the past. “The best Long-term value opportunities have historically been between here and Electrical Cost, currently at $50K,” noted the analyst. The “Electrical Cost” here is the total cost that miners are paying for electricity alone. This level has served as a sort of lower boundary for Bitcoin over the various cycles. The Production Cost suggests that miners are under pressure at the moment. How are they reacting to this? An indicator that can be useful for following miner behavior is the Hashrate, tracking the total amount of computing power connected by these validators as a whole. Related Reading: XRP Could Offer Major Buying Opportunity At $0.90, Analyst Says According to data from CoinWarz, this metric has slumped recently. From the chart, it’s visible that the Bitcoin Hashrate currently has a value of about 837 exahashes per second (EH/s). During May, the indicator frequently touched the 1,000 EH/s mark, more than 19% higher than the latest level. Thus, it would appear that some of the miners have disconnected from the network in response to the bearish market. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $62,400, down 9.5% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "$61 an hour by 2034 is where union housekeeper pay is headed under a strike-averting deal that lifts wages 50% over eight years, putting full-time earnings at $100,000 to $110,000 by 2032. In a market where Manhattan rooms already average between $500 and $600 a night, rates are expected to climb another 50% to 60% […]",
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"caption": "Solana failed to stay above $67 and corrected some gains. SOL price is moving lower and might aim for another increase if it stays above $63.00. SOL price started a downside correction below $66 against the US Dollar. The price is now trading below $65 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $66 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could extend losses if it dips below the $63 zone. Solana Price Dips Again Solana price failed to stay above $67 and started a downside correction, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL dipped below $66 and $65 to enter a short-term bearish zone. There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the $60.12 swing low to the $67.90 high. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $66 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair. The price even tested the $63.20 support. Solana is now trading below $65 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $65 level. The next major resistance is near the $66 level. The main resistance could be $67.20. A successful close above the $67.20 resistance zone could set the pace for another steady increase. The next key resistance is $68. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70 level. Downside Break In SOL? If SOL fails to rise above the $66 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $63.10 zone and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the $60.12 swing low to the $67.90 high. The first major support is near the $62.20 level. A break below the $62.20 level might send the price toward the $60 support zone. If there is a close below the $60 support, the price could decline toward the $55 support in the near term. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for SOL/USD is gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for SOL/USD is below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $63.10 and $62.50. Major Resistance Levels – $65.00 and $67.20.",
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"caption": "XRP is struggling around $1.15 as fear and uncertainty define the current market environment, and holders search for evidence that the current level represents support rather than a temporary pause before further decline. The price is under pressure — and a CryptoQuant analyst has identified a derivatives reset that occurred during the latest sell-off that reveals a sharp divergence between two of the largest XRP trading venues in the world. Related Reading: Ethereum OG Nails The Crash: Sells $188M, Buys Back Lower The sell-off triggered a forced deleveraging event on Bybit that the data makes impossible to dismiss. XRP open interest on Bybit fell to approximately $181 million — its lowest level since February 13, when it stood near $180 million. The current reading represents a 36% decline from Bybit’s recent peak of $283 million on May 22. A third of the leveraged XRP positioning on one of the most active derivatives venues in the market was flushed out in a compressed timeframe — the behavioral signature of forced exits rather than voluntary position management. Binance tells a completely different story. XRP open interest on Binance remained near $246 million following the same price decline — only approximately 2.4% below its recent high of $252 million recorded on June 2. While Bybit was experiencing a 36% open interest contraction, Binance was holding its positioning almost entirely intact. Two major venues. The same asset. The same price decline. Completely opposite derivative responses. The divergence between them is the structural signal that the CryptoQuant analysis examines — and what it reveals about the health of the current XRP market structure at $1.15 is the most important analytical question the data is currently raising. The Next Move Comes From One Exchange The liquidation data confirms what the open interest divergence implied. XRP’s decline was not driven purely by spot selling — forced exits from leveraged long positions amplified and accelerated the move. Multiple liquidation events exceeded $3.5 million with long liquidations dominating throughout. The futures volume data adds the scale context. On June 5, Binance recorded approximately $1.85 billion in XRP futures volume. Bybit contributed $727 million, OKX $429 million, and Bitget $423 million — a combined $3.43 billion across four venues in a single session. The derivatives market was not disengaged during the decline. It was processing an enormous volume of forced and voluntary position changes simultaneously. XRP Futures Trading Volume By Exchange | Source: CryptoQuant The recovery from the $1.055 low back above $1.14 — a rebound exceeding 8% — provides evidence that the sell-off contained a leverage flush component rather than representing a complete breakdown in underlying demand. When forced liquidations drive a significant portion of the decline, the price tends to recover once exits are complete and genuine buyers emerge. The structure that remains is specific. Bybit has deleveraged sharply with open interest reset to February levels — fragile positioning cleared. Binance remains near its recent highs with positioning almost entirely intact. The next major XRP derivatives development will originate from Binance — the venue carrying the most residual exposure and the exchange that has not yet experienced the reset Bybit completed during the sell-off. Related Reading: XRP Just Printed A Rare Binance Signal As Market Volatility Accelerates XRP Clings To $1.15 After Losing Key Support XRP is trading around $1.15 after a prolonged decline that has erased much of the advance generated during the second half of 2025. The chart shows a market that remains under pressure, but one that is also approaching a critical inflection point after testing its lowest levels of the year. XRP consolidates below $1.15 level | Source: XRPUSDT chart on TradingView The dominant feature on the 3-day timeframe is the persistent sequence of lower highs and lower lows that began after XRP peaked near $3.50. Every major recovery attempt since then has been rejected beneath the previous swing high, confirming that sellers remain in control of the broader trend. More recently, XRP lost the important $1.25-$1.30 support area, triggering another leg lower toward the psychological $1.10 region. Related Reading: Why Did Bitcoin Crash? On-Chain Data Points To One Missing Ingredient From a structural perspective, the current price zone is significant because it sits near the lows established during the first quarter correction. Buyers have repeatedly defended this area, preventing a complete breakdown despite multiple tests. However, the rebound attempts have been weak, indicating that demand remains limited. The moving averages continue to reflect bearish conditions. XRP is trading below the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period moving averages, while the 50-period average is acting as dynamic resistance near $1.40. Until price reclaims that level, any bounce remains technically corrective rather than trend-changing. The key support remains between $1.05 and $1.10. A decisive loss of that zone could expose XRP to a deeper retracement toward the $0.90-$1.00 region. Conversely, reclaiming $1.30 and then $1.40 would be the first signal that buyers are beginning to regain control after months of sustained weakness. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "Hello Aave Community \nI’ve been using Aave V3 for a while and kept running into the same problem: the UI shows you numbers but never explains what they actually mean or what you should do next. Health factor 1.05 — is that dangerous or fine? Depends entirely on what you’re holding and why, and nothing tells you that.\nSo I built zyk-positions.\n\nHow it works\n-– Paste any wallet address (read-only, no connection needed)\n— Full position breakdown: collateral, debt, health factor, liquidation price, P&L over time, full transaction history\n— AI analysis that explains the strategy in plain English and identifies the actual risk drivers\n— What-if simulator: drag collateral prices or input repay/add amounts and watch HF, net worth and debt update live\n\nPosition overview and live what-if simulator — drag collateral price to see HF update in real time\n\nFull transaction history with USD values at time of transaction\n\nWhat it actually does differently\nExample I found recently: a wallet running a weETH/WETH correlated loop at 10.4x leverage, HF 1.05. Looks like a liquidation waiting to happen. The AI identified it’s in E-Mode — the real liquidation trigger isn’t an ETH price move at all, it’s a weETH depeg of just 4.9%. Completely different risk than the number alone suggests.\n\nAI analysis identifying E-Mode and the real liquidation trigger\nFull example: 0x1DF1…37E8 · Aave V3 · Zyk Positions\n\nCurrent state\n-– Aave V3 mainnet only, alpha\n— Free, no account needed\nWould love feedback from people actively managing positions — especially edge cases where the analysis misses something or gets it wrong.\n\n \n \n\n positions.zyk.dev\n \n\n \n \n\nZyk Positions — Aave V3 analysis\n\n Deep analysis of Aave V3 positions — current state, full history, AI narrative.\n\n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n\n \n\n\n 1 post - 1 participant\n Read full topic",
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"caption": "Masspay has expanded its integration with Circle’s Managed Payments service to allow businesses to facilitate stablecoin payouts and treasury operations without the complexity of direct digital asset management. Abstracting Blockchain Complexity Global payouts platform Masspay has expanded its integration with Circle Payments Network’s Managed Payments service, enabling businesses to fund and make payments using stablecoins […]",
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"caption": "Bybit users who subscribe to the exchange’s new IPO Express product and receive an allocation may be in for a surprise: if the final offering price comes in within 20% of the indicative price they agreed to, their order gets executed automatically, without any additional confirmation required. Related Reading: Security Milestone: XRP Lending Protocol Completes Military-Grade Assessment Launched June 7, IPO Express lets eligible Bybit users subscribe to tokenized representations of IPO shares at the offering price, with SpaceX as its first listing under the token ticker SPCX. Subscriptions run through June 11, with spot trading scheduled to open June 12. What The Token Actually Gives You The product is built on Payward Services’ xStocks platform — Payward being the parent company of Kraken, which has separately opened SpaceX IPO access to retail clients in over 110 countries through the same infrastructure. Each token is backed 1:1 by actual SpaceX equity held in regulated broker-dealer custody, which sets it apart from the synthetic pre-IPO perpetual contracts that Hyperliquid and Binance list, where no underlying shares change hands. But owning SPCX does not make someone a SpaceX shareholder. According to Bybit’s published terms, the tokens confer no voting rights, no dividend rights, and no direct legal or beneficial ownership in SpaceX equity. Holders have no claim against SpaceX itself. What they get is exposure to the economic performance of the share price — and nothing beyond that. Not Everyone Can Get In Access is restricted in two ways. First, the product is limited to Bybit users who have reached VIP or PRO tier status, a threshold typically tied to trading volume or asset holdings, in addition to completing identity verification. Second, the offering is entirely off-limits to residents of the European Economic Area, covering all 27 EU member states plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway. Bybit states it holds no license or authorization under MiCA or any applicable EEA financial services regime for this product. The exclusion is notable given that SpaceX’s IPO has already shut out investors in mainland China and Hong Kong under US International Traffic in Arms Regulations. The tokenized access path that was positioned as a workaround carries its own exclusions. SpaceX’s IPO has drawn approximately $150 billion in demand against a $75 billion raise, meaning even VIP-tier subscribers who qualify may receive partial allocations. Related Reading: Has The Bitcoin Price Crash Ended Or Is This Just The Beginning? Analyst Answers Funds are frozen from the moment a subscription order is submitted until results are announced, or up to five business days if the event is cancelled. What Comes After SpaceX Bybit’s announcement positions IPO Express as a recurring platform, not a one-time product. Reports indicate that subsequent major IPOs — including potentially OpenAI and Anthropic — could see similar tokenized access products rolled out through Bybit, Kraken, and other xStocks-based platforms. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView",
"headline": "SpaceX Exposure Comes To Bybit Through New Tokenized Product – Details",
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"caption": "Bitcoin is holding above $62,000 after the massive drop that defined last week’s market action and erased months of recovery progress in a matter of days. The price is stabilizing — but analyst MorenoDV has published a demand analysis that places the current market conditions in a historical context that makes the stability feel considerably more fragile than the held price level suggests. Related Reading: XRP Just Printed A Rare Binance Signal As Market Volatility Accelerates Bitcoin demand has entered one of its most extreme contraction regimes since 2019. The 30-day growth of combined spot and perpetual futures demand has fallen toward -650,000 BTC — a threshold that has been reached only three times across the chart’s entire history. The rarity of the reading is the first signal that the current environment is not a routine demand slowdown but something structurally more severe. The architecture of the contraction is what makes MorenoDV’s analysis particularly significant. Spot demand and perpetual futures demand are contracting simultaneously — meaning the weakness is not isolated to speculative leverage unwinding. Organic buyers who would normally absorb declining prices through spot purchases and derivatives participants who express directional conviction through futures exposure are both withdrawing at the same time. The two demand streams that together provide Bitcoin’s marginal buying capacity are disappearing in parallel rather than one offsetting the other. What remains is a market with fewer buyers, less capacity to absorb selling pressure, and a demand structure that has only looked this extreme on three previous occasions in Bitcoin’s modern market history. Three Times in History and the Previous Two Were Not Bottoms Yet The MorenoDV analysis applies the historical framework that prevents the extreme demand contraction reading from being interpreted as automatic capitulation confirmation. The two previous occasions when combined demand fell toward the -650,000 BTC threshold carried specific and instructive implications that the current setup should be evaluated against. Bitcoin Spot and Perpetual Futures Demand Growth | Source: CryptoQuant The first breakdown toward this level occurred before the COVID crash — demand deterioration was already developing before the final liquidity shock arrived. The metric reaching extreme contraction was not the bottom. It was the early warning that preceded the actual capitulation event that followed weeks later. The 2022 bear market showed a similar distinction. Extreme demand contraction reflected deep structural deterioration rather than marking the floor. The subsequent interactions with higher support zones occurred as the market moved through its broader bottoming and rebuilding process — a prolonged sequence rather than a single decisive moment. The current setup therefore resembles the beginning of a final cleansing phase more than a confirmed reversal. MorenoDV identifies the most probable path as an initial expansion in volatility followed by what the analysis describes as price anesthesia — weak momentum, compressed activity, and prolonged sideways action that exhausts remaining participants without delivering the dramatic capitulation event that would provide psychological closure. That phase may prove more damaging than the sell-off itself. Sharp declines create fear but also resolve — they force decisions and clear positions. Extended sideways action at depressed levels erodes conviction gradually, tests patience beyond its limits, and tends to shake out holders who survived the initial drop but cannot endure the silence that follows it. Related Reading: Ethereum OG Nails The Crash: Sells $188M, Buys Back Lower Bitcoin Price Testing Critical Demand Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize above the $62,000 level after one of the sharpest selloffs of the cycle erased the May recovery and drove price back into a critical long-term support region. On the weekly chart, BTC is currently trading directly above the 100-week moving average (red line), which has acted as a major support level throughout previous corrective phases. The fact that buyers stepped in near this area suggests that long-term participants still view the zone as attractive despite the recent weakness. Bitcoin testing key demand level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView However, the broader technical structure remains fragile. The rejection from the $72,000–$74,000 resistance zone confirmed that previous support has now become resistance. Bitcoin failed to reclaim that range and subsequently broke below the consolidation area that held between March and May, triggering a rapid decline toward the current support region. Related Reading: Why Did Bitcoin Crash? On-Chain Data Points To One Missing Ingredient The key level to watch remains the $60,000–$63,000 region. Holding above it would preserve the possibility of a prolonged base formation. A decisive break below that zone could expose Bitcoin to a deeper retracement toward the mid-$50,000s. To regain momentum, bulls must reclaim the former support zone near $66,000 and eventually challenge resistance around $72,000. Until then, the trend remains defensive despite the recent bounce. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "XRP is now oversold across all major time frames, signaling weakening momentum as its price continues to test key support levels. Crypto analyst Dark Defender revealed that this could be the bullish signal the broader market has been waiting for, suggesting a potential rebound may be on the horizon. He based his outlook on historical patterns, noting that the last time XRP reached similar oversold conditions, the cryptocurrency experienced a sharp rally to new highs. XRP Oversold Levels Signal Explosive Triple-Digit Rally In an X post on June 6, Dark Defender noted that XRP’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing extreme downward pressure, as the cryptocurrency has fallen into deep oversold territory across multiple chart views. According to the analyst, the last time XRP fully confirmed this textbook oversold structure was when it traded around $0.56 in 2024. After which, the cryptocurrency’s price exploded to $3.66, representing a more than 550% gain. Related Reading: Analyst Says XRP Is About To Have A ‘Phoenix Moment’, What This Means For Price Dark Defender highlighted that XRP is currently trading above $1.10 and has reached the same oversold levels. If historical trends play out as expected, the analyst believes that XRP could experience a similar price surge. Specifically, Dark Defender is projecting a double or triple-digit rally for XRP. He noted that this price reversal is closer than investors think, highlighting his confidence in XRP’s ability to break out of its ongoing downtrend. While historical trends can provide insight into how a cryptocurrency could move, they do not automatically guarantee its price direction. In 2024, XRP did not just run straight to $3.6; it also confirmed a bottom around $0.5 before reaching that target. Following the analyst’s logic, it could mean that XRP has confirmed its price floor for this cycle, setting the stage for a renewed bull trend. If this is true, it would officially end XRP’s bear market trend, which has been ongoing since the beginning of the year. Notably, CoinMarketCap data show that XRP has fallen more than 12% over the past two weeks and more than 18% over the last month. These price declines have been fueled by massive selling pressure, weak structure, and a lack of bullish drivers. Despite its poor performance, analysts like Dark Defender still maintain strong bullish stances on XRP’s long-term outlook. Analyst Says XRP Breakout Level Remains Unchanged Sharing a similar bullish projection, crypto analyst Javon Marks has declared that XRP’s breakout target has not changed despite recent price declines and weak momentum. Marks projected a potential rally toward $15-$18, suggesting that XRP’s underlying bullish fundamentals are still intact. He expects XRP to recover sharply from bearish trends after it breaks above the upper boundary of the triangle pattern highlighted on the accompanying chart. If this happens, it could lead to a price surge of roughly 1,100%. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com",
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"caption": "XRP’s 90-day network fee average has plunged 91.5%, with Glassnode data pointing to a sharp drop in real transaction demand despite earlier price strength. The trend suggests network activity has weakened considerably since the speculative surge, raising questions about the sustainability of underlying usage. XRP’s Fee Collapse Raises Questions About Real Network Demand XRP’s on-chain […]",
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"caption": "On-chain data shows the RSI of the Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has dropped to a low of 13, a sign that the stablecoin supply is high relative to the BTC market cap. Bitcoin SSR RSI Has Sharply Gone Down Recently In a new post on X, CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn has discussed the latest trend in the RSI of the Bitcoin SSR. The “SSR” is an on-chain indicator that measures the ratio between the market cap of BTC and the combined valuation of all stablecoins. Related Reading: XRP Could Offer Major Buying Opportunity At $0.90, Analyst Says Stablecoins, digital assets that have their price pegged to a fiat currency, serve a different purpose in the sector than volatile assets like BTC. Generally, investors store their capital in the form of stablecoins whenever they want to avoid the volatility associated with other cryptocurrencies. These holders tend to eventually venture back into BTC and other coins, and when they do, they swap their stables in favor of them. Because of this, stablecoins are often looked at as a representation of the potential “dry powder” waiting on the sidelines for the volatile side of the sector. As the SSR tracks the market cap of Bitcoin against these assets, it essentially tells us about how the value of the number one cryptocurrency compares to this dry powder. In the context of the current topic, the SSR itself isn’t directly of relevance, but rather its Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator tracking the magnitude and speed of recent changes in the metric. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the Bitcoin SSR RSI over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin SSR RSI has witnessed a notable drawdown recently and has entered into the “undervalued” zone. This means that the SSR has declined enough that it may be probable to see a rebound. Currently, the indicator is sitting at a value of 13, which is quite low when compared to the past. “There’s a lot of stablecoin liquidity sitting on the sidelines relative to Bitcoin’s market cap,” noted the analyst. This low has arrived as BTC and other assets have observed a steep bearish trajectory. It now remains to be seen whether investors will start deploying the excess stablecoin capital into the market to buy at these lower prices, potentially helping the assets stabilize. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Needs This To Happen, Glassnode Analyst Reveals In some other news, the recent Bitcoin drawdown has meant that a huge amount of supply has entered into a state of loss. As highlighted by Maartunn in another X post, 52% of the cryptocurrency’s supply in circulation is now underwater. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $62,700, down nearly 10% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "As the XRP price attempts to rebound from its recent lows, Glassnode has shared key on-chain metrics pointing to weakening momentum and “intense capitulation.” Related Reading: Bitmine Makes Largest Ethereum Purchase Of 2026 As Tom Lee Dismisses Market Selloff XRP Profit/Loss Ratio Falls To Lowest Levels Since 2024 On Tuesday, market intelligence platform Glassnode revealed that XRP is flashing warning signals, with key on-chain indicators pointing to widespread capitulation and decreasing network activity. In an X post, Glassnode researchers highlighted that the 90-day moving average (MA) of the altcoin’s Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio has fallen to an area historically associated with deeper downtrends and periods of market capitulation. Notably, the key metric has dropped to 0.38, its lowest level since 2024, meaning that for every dollar of losses realized in the market, only 38 cents in profit are being taken. This marks a significant reversal from the 2025 peak, when the ratio surged to 50, indicating profit-takers outpaced loss-sellers by a factor of 50. That dynamic has now fully inverted, Glassnode affirmed, adding that a ratio this low suggests that most participants moving XRP are exiting their positions at a loss, which is “a hallmark of intense capitulation.” In addition, the blockchain analytics firm pointed out that network activity has declined significantly. According to the data, the 90-day average of total transaction fees paid on the XRP network has fallen from 5,900 XRP in February 2025 to just 500 XRP, representing a 91.5% drop. “A drop of this magnitude is not a fee market adjustment. It reflects a near-total contraction in organic transaction demand on the network since the speculative peak,” Glassnode affirmed. The drop in these indicators suggests investor confidence has weakened, and the market has shifted to reduced speculative appetite with subdued participation. Is XRP’s Bottom Near? Over the past two weeks, XRP’s price has retraced nearly 15%, falling to its lowest levels since November 2024. Amid this performance, analyst ChartNerd noted that the cryptocurrency’s bear markets have historically lasted 400-790 days with 85-96% drops. Currently, the altcoin has only corrected for approximately 350 days, with a 71% retracement from the July highs. However, “the duration and % depth of these bears are diminishing over time; therefore, the territory for marking a historical bottom between now and EOY is fast approaching,” he stated. He also observed that the altcoin closed below its 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) last week, which could also signal that the bottom may be on the horizon. As he explained, during prior cycles, a structural bottom formed between 8 and 29 weeks after the first weekly close below this SMA, suggesting that XRP could begin forming its bottom in the coming months, if history repeats. Meanwhile, market watcher Ali Martinez noted that XRP could be mirroring the same pattern it has repeated since 2018, as it may be approaching its largest buying zone in the last eight years. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Rise May Have Little To Do With The Latest Purchase News “For nearly a decade, every touch of this rising trendline has marked a major turning point, sending XRP back toward the $3 resistance,” the analyst stated, adding that the cryptocurrency is currently approaching this trendline again, with support sitting between the $0.70 and $0.90 levels. If this zone holds, a rally back to $3 becomes “a realistic scenario.” Moreover, if XRP finally breaks above the eight-year resistance, around $3.30, the next macro target may be between $8 and $13, the analyst concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "The Hyperliquid Policy Center (HPC), together with venture capital firm Paradigm, submitted a joint comment to the US Treasury on Tuesday, urging the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) and the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to refine parts of its proposed stablecoin compliance rule tied to the GENIUS Act. The rule is intended to implement anti-money laundering (AML) and sanctions requirements for “permitted payment stablecoin issuers” (PPSIs), a category the proposal says should be able to innovate in payment stablecoins while operating under an “appropriately tailored” regime designed to manage illicit-finance risk. Narrower Compliance, Less Burden While they did not oppose the overall goal of the framework, Paradigm and the Hyperliquid Policy Center argued that key elements of the proposal need clearer boundaries—especially where compliance obligations may unintentionally spill over into areas that do not fit the GENIUS Act’s structure or Congress’s intent. A major focus of the comments is how permitted payment stablecoin issuers’ duties should work in the secondary market, where PPSIs do not have a direct relationship with the underlying counterparties. In their view, the law makes clear Congress expected due diligence by PPSIs on their own customers, but did not intend a requirement for PPSIs to conduct additional diligence for trading that occurs in the secondary market. Related Reading: XRP May Reach $10 By 2027—But Bearish Conditions Could Push It Below $1, Expert Says The firms drew an analogy to traditional banking, saying that once regulated institutions run KYC when funds enter the system, they are not expected to monitor every spending event after cash is withdrawn. In the same way, Paradigm and the Hyperliquid Policy Center argued that decentralized peer-to-peer transfers of stablecoins—and other digital assets—should generally involve KYC only at the regulated on-ramps and off-ramps, with compliance costs focused where the relationship exists. They warned that a contrary approach could drive requirements for PPSIs to file large numbers of low-value suspicious activity reports (SARs), creating “noisy” reports with false positives that would impose costs on both PPSIs and FinCEN without clear public benefit. Hyperliquid Policy Center Urges Clarification The comment also addresses the way the proposed rule defines and assigns obligations related to “lawful orders.” Paradigm and the Hyperliquid Policy Center said the proposal defines “lawful order” by incorporating the GENIUS Act definition of “person,” which in turn determines who may have to build technological capabilities. They argued that, as drafted, the proposed rule could be interpreted too broadly, potentially pulling in developers of distributed ledger protocols, decentralized self-custodial interfaces, and other technologies that Congress excluded from the GENIUS Act’s definition of a “digital asset service provider.” The firms said this result would not align with Congress’s intent, and they recommended a clarification in the final rule to explicitly state that certain entities and technologies are not included within the scope of lawful order requirements. Related Reading: Dogecoin (DOGE) At $0.086–Two Scenarios Ahead, Including A New 32% Crash According to Paradigm and the Hyperliquid Policy Center, failing to make that clarification could unintentionally impose lawful order obligations on every validator on networks like Ethereum (ETH), Hyperliquid (HYPE), Solana (SOL), and Layer 2 systems that validate transactions involving PPSI-issued stablecoins. They argued the predictable outcome would be that US validator stakes would move offshore, US blockbuilding operations would relocate, and the US share of the chain validator base would decline—outcomes they said would undermine both the GENIUS Act’s onshoring objectives and broader US interests. Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "In a new report, market expert Sam Daodu laid out three tentative scenarios for where XRP could be heading in 2027. His projections are built around several moving parts: the CLARITY Act, the XRP Ledger (XRPL), and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Conservative XRP Outlook Under Daodu’s most conservative outlook, XRP could trade between $3 and $5 by 2027. This range assumes that the CLARITY Act moves forward and that demand for XRP through ETFs grows at a steady pace rather than in dramatic bursts. Daodu argues that this “unflashy” kind of progress would be enough to pull XRP back toward its earlier peak levels in under two years, without requiring a major, sudden breakout. Related Reading: Dogecoin (DOGE) At $0.086–Two Scenarios Ahead, Including A New 32% Crash In this scenario, Standard Chartered’s $7 XRP target for 2027 sits near the optimistic end, but the $3 to $5 outcome is presented as the best fit for current conditions if nothing destabilizes the market. A more bullish case pushes XRP higher, with a forecast range of $7 to $10. For XRP to reach that upper band, the demand question would need to turn decisively in XRP’s favor. From Infrastructure To Demand Daodu’s report points to a key catalyst: banks may need to start holding and settling in XRP itself, not just relying on stablecoins that use the XRPL network. He also notes that ETF inflows would likely have to accelerate beyond early expectations and reaching a level of “several billion dollars.” If both usage and buying pressure strengthen at the same time, Daodu suggests that XRP would have the combination of utility and market demand required to clear its prior highs and sustain the momentum afterward. That bullish pathway is also where Bitwise’s more optimistic prediction comes into view. Bitwise’s outlook places XRP in the $9 to $10 area, aligning closely with the idea that 2027 could be the year the altcoin finally catches up to the value implied by its infrastructure. In Daodu’s framing, this would be the version of events where adoption and capital inflows reinforce each other—turning what is currently more infrastructure-led into a fuller demand-driven cycle. A Real Chance Of Breaking Below $1 Daodu also outlines a downside scenario, where XRP trades below $1.50 by 2027. In his analysis, the negative path depends less on technology and more on whether sentiment stays weak for longer than the market can easily absorb. A key risk factor is the possibility that the CLARITY Act stalls past August’s recess. At the same time, broader market conditions could keep pressure on risk assets. Finally, Ripple’s monthly supply pattern is described as steady, meaning it may not provide fresh demand catalysts on its own if buyers remain cautious. Related Reading: What’s Going Wrong With XRP? Expert Points To 2 Major Bearish Flips In These Key Metrics In that bearish scenario, Daodu expects XRP to spend most of 2027 somewhere between $1 and $1.50. He also notes that there is a realistic chance XRP could lose the $1 level if selling intensity continues rather than fading. However, the market may not have to wait until 2027 to see sub-$1 levels for the altcoin, as it is currently trading at around $1.12. This is a recovery from the drop to $1.05 over the weekend, but there are still concerns that this key support level could be broken in the near term. Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "Ethereum is trading near $1,644, roughly 67% below its all-time high of $4,946 set on Aug. 24, 2025, as a combination of macro pressure, persistent ETF outflows, and bitcoin’s rising dominance has pushed the second-largest cryptocurrency to its weakest relative position in years. ETH by the Numbers As of June 9, 2026, ETH’s 24-hour range […]",
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"caption": "Arthur Hayes has turned sharply defensive on risk assets, warning that an AI stock-market unwind could spill into crypto before Bitcoin eventually benefits from the liquidity response that follows. In his June 9 essay “Reality Test,” the BitMEX co-founder said Maelstrom has cut several crypto positions while keeping Bitcoin and Ether as core holdings. Hayes’ argument starts outside crypto, with oil. He frames the US-Iran conflict and reduced Strait of Hormuz traffic as the central macro variable for markets, arguing that higher hydrocarbon prices could feed inflation, constrain US political options and pressure the AI trade that has dominated capital allocation since late 2022. “We start with oil and end with an election in Pax Americana,” Hayes wrote. “This story arc could produce a situation whereby the AI stock bubble pops and takes the entire crypto complex down with it. When the dust settles, then and only then, can Bitcoin rise from the ashes.” Hayes Turns Bearish On Crypto And Risk Assets The core of Hayes’ thesis is that AI has absorbed the dollar liquidity that, in previous cycles, might have flowed more directly into Bitcoin and crypto. He notes that Bitcoin rose from around $15,000 after the FTX collapse to roughly $125,000 by October 2025, but says AI equities still outperformed, led by Nvidia’s 11x move over the same period. Since Bitcoin’s all-time high, he says BTC is down 50%, while Nvidia has still risen about 10%. Related Reading: ‘Coldest Crypto Winter Ever’: Bloomberg’s Weisenthal Lists 12 Reasons Hayes argues this divergence reflects where new fiat liquidity actually went. By his estimate, AI-related companies issued roughly $1.5 trillion of debt since November 2022, matching the $1.5 trillion increase in M2 over the same period. He adds that $1.3 trillion of that AI debt issuance occurred from 2025 onward, just as Bitcoin’s rally stalled. “AI sucked up all created dollars,” Hayes wrote. “Bitcoin never had a chance.” That is why, in his view, an AI correction would not immediately be bullish for crypto. Hayes expects a sharp drawdown in AI stocks to damage bank lending, tighten credit and destroy speculative capital before policymakers respond with fresh liquidity. “Bitcoin cannot rally in the short term if the entire world takes serious losses from the deflation of the AI bubble globally. Eventually, it will bottom, then rise as Bitcoin forecasts an increase in liquidity to put Humpty Dumpty back together again. But right now, it’s about protecting one’s crypto capital.” Hayes identifies three potential catalysts for the AI bubble to break: higher energy costs, supply pressure from major AI-linked IPOs, and anti-AI rhetoric from Donald Trump as election politics intensify. He argues that rising oil and natural gas prices directly raise the cost of producing AI tokens, compressing margins for model companies such as Google, Anthropic and OpenAI. If usage growth slows and earnings assumptions weaken, he says the market could begin questioning future data-center capex. Related Reading: Crypto Is A ‘Failed’ Asset Class, Says Renowned Economist The IPO calendar is another pressure point. Hayes says SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI could test the market’s ability to absorb enormous supply at elevated valuations. He focuses in particular on SpaceX, writing that its S-1 implies investors would pay roughly 100x sales, with only 4% to 5% of shares floated initially. He says SpaceX would immediately become a $1.8 trillion company, ranking seventh globally by market cap, while its float could increase fivefold by early September. Hayes also sees the Federal Reserve as unlikely to rescue risk assets immediately. He says the two-year Treasury yield trading more than 0.5 percentage points above the effective fed funds rate implies the market is pricing pressure for tighter policy, not cuts, ahead of the June 16-17 meeting. A “hawkish hold,” in his view, would add another headwind to AI equities and crypto. The portfolio response has already started. Hayes said Maelstrom has moved long US-listed energy producers and exited several non-core crypto positions. “I dumped HYPE, NEAR, and WLD last week,” he wrote. “I also dumped ZEC because of the Orchard Pool bug. I wish I didn’t have to do that, but capital preservation is more important than capital appreciation.” Bitcoin and Ether remain. Hayes described Ether as “dead but functional,” saying he has no immediate reason to liquidate it. For Bitcoin, his base case is more volatile: a near-term drawdown if the AI bubble bursts, followed by a stronger rebound once the financial system requires another major liquidity injection. At press time, BTC traded at $62,638. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com",
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"caption": "Bitcoin’s latest upward move has sparked debate among market participants, and some believe the rally may have little to do with the purchase announcement that received the most attention. While the acquisition is generally viewed as constructive for the broader market, it is not necessarily the type of development that would justify a significant upward move in Bitcoin price. Why The Latest Purchase May Not Be Driving Bitcoin Rally The Bitcoin’s recent move higher is being misinterpreted as a direct reaction to purchase news, when in reality the drivers appear to be more technical in nature. Crypto analyst Aylo has explained on X that the BTC bounce is likely the result of an oversold market finding relief after sweeping key February lows. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Crosses Critical Threshold — Bullish Reversal Next? Another factor supporting the move higher is the easing of concerns surrounding Strategy and its Bitcoin holdings. The company’s recent sale of a relatively small 32 BTC sparked fears that it could become a larger seller in the future. Aylo suggests that while the current low may hold in the near term, it remains plausible that BTC could form a slightly lower low in June before a rally, particularly if the broader equity markets experience further weakness. Any deeper stock market shakeout could temporarily drag the price lower before a more sustained recovery begins. This level will be temporary before Bitcoin sees a low later in the year. Furthermore, the fear that Michael Saylor and Strategy may be forced to liquidate a significant portion of their BTC holdings is likely overstated. The company may need to sell limited amounts to meet specific obligations, but the narrative that a major liquidation event from their supply will be driven more by bearish sentiment. What The Recent Breakdown Could Mean For The Market Bitcoin’s recent price action appears to be following a market structure that has played out before during previous corrective phases. A crypto trader known as Max Trades pointed out that roughly a month ago, BTC was entering a distribution phase of this pattern, and the outlook has since played out with notable accuracy. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Market Structure Reflects The Influence Of Major Investors In this bear market, BTC first formed an accumulation range, where price consolidated before breaking higher and sweeping out the liquidity above the previous highs. However, instead of continuing its upward trajectory, the asset price has transitioned into distribution. Since then, BTC has experienced a significant decline, falling more than 20% from its previous highs. According to Max Trades, what makes the current setup particularly noteworthy is the comparison to a previous distribution phase that ultimately resulted in substantially deeper downside after the initial breakdown. If the current structure continues to mirror that historical pattern, it could imply that the recent decline is not yet complete. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com",
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"caption": "Wall Street collapsed and bitcoin tumbled Tuesday after Iran shot down a U.S. military helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz, torching an earlier ceasefire rally and sending markets into a sharp risk-off spiral. Markets Get Crushed The Nasdaq Composite shed 844 points, falling to 25,085, its steepest single-session drop since last week’s brutal selloff. The […]",
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"caption": "Summary\nLlamaRisk recommends the following parameter changes based on user behavior, on-chain liquidity, and position health observed in the latest review of Aave V3 reserves.\nAave V3 Plasma:\n\nIncrease supply cap for syrupUSDT from 180,000,000 to 227,000,000.\n\nAave V3 Mantle:\n\nIncrease supply cap for WMNT from 1,226,000 to 2,000,000.\n\nsyrupUSDT (Aave V3 Plasma)\nsyrupUSDT is currently at 76.5% supply cap utilization (137,654,454 / 180,000,000) on the Aave V3 Plasma instance.\nSupply Distribution\nSource: LlamaRisk, June 9, 2026\nThe largest syrupUSDT suppliers maintain relatively low health factors in the 1.01–1.08 range, with most positions concentrated in the syrupUSDT Stablecoin E-Mode category (LT: 92%). Currently, approximately $141M of debt is borrowed against syrupUSDT collateral, primarily denominated in USDT (~91%), with the remainder in GHO.\nRecommendation\nWe recommend raising the supply cap from 180,000,000 to 227,000,000 on Aave V3 Plasma. The increase lowers cap utilization from 76.5% to 60.6%, leaving approximately $100M of supply headroom, to accommodate new inflows.\nWMNT (Aave V3 Mantle)\nWMNT has reached 91.1% supply cap utilization (1,117,165 / 1,226,000) on the Aave V3 Mantle instance.\nSupply Distribution\nSource: LlamaRisk, June 9, 2026\nThe largest WMNT suppliers maintain relatively strong positions, with all health factors above 1.4. Total borrow exposure against WMNT collateral is modest at approximately $100K, primarily consisting of GHO and USDC debt.\nOn the liquidity side, available stablecoin depth is approximately $200K within a 10% price impact, providing sufficient coverage relative to the current borrow exposure.\nRecommendation\nWe recommend raising the supply cap from 1,226,000 to 2,000,000 on Aave V3 Mantle, so that WMNT to be distributed as aWMNT incentives can be deposited. The increase lowers cap utilization from 91.1% to 55.9%.\nSpecification\n\n\n\n\nInstance\nAsset\nCurrent Supply Cap\nRecommended Supply Cap\n\n\n\n\nAave V3 Plasma\nsyrupUSDT\n180,000,000\n227,000,000\n\n\nAave V3 Mantle\nWMNT\n1,226,000\n2,000,000\n\n\n\nNext Steps\nWe will move forward and implement these updates via the Risk Steward process.\nDisclosure\nThis review was independently prepared by LlamaRisk, a DeFi risk service provider funded in part by the Aave DAO. LlamaRisk is not directly affiliated with the protocol(s) reviewed in this assessment and did not receive any compensation from the protocol(s) or their affiliated entities for this work.\nThe information provided should not be construed as legal, financial, tax, or professional advice.\n 1 post - 1 participant\n Read full topic",
"headline": "Risk Stewards: Supply Cap Increases on Aave V3 / 2026.06.09",
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"caption": "[ARFC] Upgrade PT Risk Oracle to Protocol-Owned Infrastructure on CRE\nSummary\nLlamaRisk proposes upgrading the Pendle PT risk oracle stack to an automated pipeline that enhances Aave’s protocol-owned risk infrastructure: Aave Governance owns every contract, the risk manager only proposes, and every parameter and tuning decision is recorded onchain. The proven linear discount-rate model and the Risk Agents middleware carry over unchanged; what changes is the offchain sender and the path each update takes onchain. Three Chainlink Runtime Environment (CRE) workflows will compute the smoothed implied rate, the discount rate, and the per-E-Mode LT, LTV, and LB parameters, each publishing a signed report that a new router validates and writes onchain. The methodology parameters that drive them live in an onchain ParameterRegistry.\nThe pipeline executes atomically: a single signed report writes to the oracle and triggers execution via the existing AgentHub in a single onchain transaction. The same architecture is built to bring the next oracle families (slope2, CAPO, the supply/borrow-cap oracle, and the automated freeze guardian) onto the same router, oracle, and registry, consolidating Aave’s risk surfaces on one protocol-owned stack with no change to the integration, transparency, or access-control surface.\nMotivation\nWhen Chaos Labs stepped down from risk management for Aave, the PT risk oracle stack was effectively deprecated. Since then, LlamaRisk has ensured continuity by monitoring the in-scope markets and pushing just-in-time parameter changes through the Risk Stewards path, running its own methodology manually. This transitional path was never meant to be permanent: it carries ongoing manual overhead and key-person risk, and like the system it replaced, it asks the DAO to trust an offchain process it cannot directly verify.\nThat opacity is the core problem this proposal addresses. The prior Chaos Labs setup gave the DAO no visibility into the offchain system that computed its risk parameters, and LlamaRisk observed cases in which the parameters deployed onchain diverged from the published methodology.\nThis proposal moves PT risk onto transparent, protocol-owned infrastructure where the methodology parameters, every input, and every resulting change are recorded onchain and independently verifiable. Computation runs in battle-tested Chainlink CRE workflows, the parameters they read live in an onchain registry, and execution flows through the Risk Agents middleware that Aave Governance already owns. Every published value is signed by a registered CRE workflow and gated by the AgentHub’s generic safety checks before it reaches a pool. The linear discount-rate model and the Risk Agents architecture are unchanged; the same risk assumptions hold, now with predictable behavior, clear thresholds, and a public onchain audit trail of every parameter change.\nIntegration Path\nThis proposal leaves the onchain surface Aave Governance owns intact and replaces only the offchain sender. Computation runs in three independent CRE workflows: a single new router, a new middleware layer in front of the Risk Oracle, receives each signed report and, in a single onchain transaction, writes to the Risk Oracle and triggers the existing Risk Agents middleware. Aave Governance still owns every contract; the risk manager only proposes.\nOverall Flow\n\nA parameter update moves through four layers:\n\nOffchain CRE. Gathers Pendle market state, reads the onchain ParameterRegistry and LlamaguardRiskOracle, runs the methodology rule, and emits one signed report.\nRouter. Validates the report’s source tuple, then publishes it and triggers execution in a single atomic step.\nOracle and AgentHub. Stores the typed update and re-runs the existing generic safety checks for delay, expiration, replay, and range.\nAave-side execution. The typed agent mutates the state on the PendlePriceCapAdapter or the PoolConfigurator.\n\nThe defining property is one signed report, one atomic onchain transaction. The router decodes the report, publishes to the oracle, calls AgentHub.check, and, if actions are returned, calls AgentHub.execute, all in the same transaction. This collapses a publish step, an offchain keeper poll, and a separate performUpkeep call into a single router call. CRE never holds direct write authority over Aave pool configuration: every mutation goes through a typed agent under the existing AgentHub permission model, and the AgentHub re-runs its full safety checks at execute time regardless of the caller.\nChainlink CRE Workflows\n\nThree CRE workflows share a common library that handles Pendle AMM reads, registry reads, risk-oracle reads, and CRE report signing. Each owns its own publish-and-execute cycle and runs on its own cadence. Two are primary: the discount-rate and risk-parameters workflows, which produce the parameters that reach Aave. The third, the EMA workflow, is peripheral: it supplies a smoothed implied rate that the two primary workflows read.\n\nDiscount-rate workflow. Consumes the latest r_ema as a single number, applies the rule from the Dynamic Discount Rate section below, and publishes the result as PendleDiscountRateUpdate to the existing RiskOracle for the existing AaveDiscountRateAgent to inject into the PendlePriceCapAdapter.\nRisk-parameters workflow. Applies the rule from the Dynamic Risk Parameters section below and publishes (LT, LTV, LB) per (PT, E-Mode category) reserve as EModeCategoryUpdate to the existing RiskOracle for the existing AaveEModeAgent. One workflow run can emit multiple records, one per reserve the PT is listed in.\n\nThe EMA workflow computes a one-step EMA of Pendle’s lastLnImpliedRate per PT and publishes it as EmaImpliedRateUpdate, the r_ema that the two primary workflows consume. It has no Aave-side agent and does not directly drive any parameters.\nAll three workflows are deterministic by construction. Reads are taken at finalized confidence; randomness and wall-clock times are taken from the CRE runtime rather than process-local sources; and workflow IDs are pinned per environment and validated by the router on every report. Rotating a workflow requires a coordinated multisig action on the router; it cannot land silently.\nSmart Contract Stack\n\nThis proposal reuses all contracts on the existing Risk Agents path and adds three new contracts upstream of AgentHub. Reused contracts (AaveOracle, PendlePriceCapAdapter, AgentHub, RangeValidationModule, AaveDiscountRateAgent, AaveEModeAgent) are pulled from aave-address-book per network. The PT price surface and the typed agents that inject discount-rate and E-Mode updates are exactly the same code that Aave Governance already owns.\nThree new contracts sit upstream of the AgentHub:\n\nLlamaguardRiskOracle is a variant of the standard RiskOracle that accepts writes only from the router. It stores the Price EMA and Pool Proportion EMA, keyed by (updateType, market), and exposes the IRiskOracle surface, which the two primary CRE workflows use to obtain the smoothed implied rate and proportion. The router writes it from the pendle_ema_oracle workflow’s signed report.\nLlamaguardRiskOracleRouter is the onchain atomic actor for every published update. It receives signed CRE reports through the Chainlink Forwarder, validates the source tuple (forwarder, author, workflowName, workflowId) against the workflow registered for that update type, publishes to the RiskOracle, and triggers AgentHub.check / AgentHub.execute in the same transaction. It is designed to route across multiple risk oracles, such as slope2, CAPO, and future workstreams, as they come online.\nParameterRegistry is the onchain home for the per-asset risk methodology parameters that the workflows read on every evaluation. It is the same registry shape as audited for LlamaGuard NAV, extended to cover PT and future Oracle families under the same contract.\n\nRouter authority is not load-bearing for execution safety. The publish call is the load-bearing step: if it reverts, the whole router call reverts, and the workflow retries on the next trigger. The subsequent AgentHub.check / AgentHub.execute calls are best-effort. A revert in either is caught and logged, leaving the oracle record in place for the next router call (or for a permissionless automation call to check and execute) to pick back up. The oracle is the source of truth; injection is a separate concern.\n\nOwnership and Access Controls\nAave Governance owns every contract on this path; the risk manager only proposes. The Risk Agents middleware (AgentHub, AgentHubAutomation, RangeValidationModule, AaveDiscountRateAgent, AaveEModeAgent) does not move; it remains under the same Aave V3 ACL, is governance-owned, and remains unchanged. The PoolConfigurator and Pool are likewise unchanged. The three new contracts are also Aave-Governance-owned: the LlamaguardRiskOracle accepts writes only from the router, the router validates the workflow source tuple on every report, ParameterRegistry exposes an Updater role held by LlamaRisk so the per-asset methodology slice can be tuned transparently without a CRE redeploy, and LlamaguardRiskOracleRouter is provisioned to be Aave-Governance-owned, with LlamaRisk holding an Updater role for limited rights over update routes. Authorized-sender rotation on the oracle, workflow-tuple rotation on the router, and Updater-role changes on the registry are all multisig actions.\nThis is the same risk-manager handover pattern that occurred when Chaos Labs stepped down. Every onchain check that constrained the previous sender also constrains the new one, with the added constraint that the new sender is bound to a signed CRE workflow whose identity the router validates on every report.\nAuditing\nThe incremental onchain surface is limited to three new contracts: LlamaguardRiskOracleRouter, LlamaguardRiskOracle, and ParameterRegistry. The LlamaguardRiskOracle and ParameterRegistry were already audited by two security teams as part of LlamaGuard NAV, so the router is the only contract that has not been audited. Certora audits will cover both the new contracts and the CRE workflow code, reviewing the offchain computation surface and the onchain enforcement surface as one integrated system.\nMethodology\nThis section explains why the PT collateral price and the three reserve risk parameters, the liquidation bonus, liquidation threshold, and loan-to-value ratio, must move with the life of the position rather than be held fixed.\nA PT is a zero-coupon bond whose volatility decays toward maturity\nA Pendle PT is a claim on one unit of its accounting asset at a fixed maturity, where the accounting asset is the asset the PT price is denominated in. For a PT on sUSDe, this is USDe, so the PT redeems for the quantity of sUSDe worth one USDe at maturity rather than for one sUSDe. Before maturity, it trades at a discount to that redemption value. This is the payoff of a zero-coupon bond, and the AMM prices it as one. In units of the accounting asset, the PT price is\n\nP_{text{amm}}(tau) = e^{-rtau},\n\nwhere r is the continuously compounded implied rate stored by the market and tau is the time to expiry in years. As tau to 0 the price converges to par, P_{text{amm}} to 1, independent of r. Pendle enforces this pull-to-par mechanically: the redemption value is fixed at maturity, and the AMM shifts its curve over time, pushing the price toward that value as expiry approaches.\nThe same structure makes the PT less volatile over time. From P_{text{amm}} = e^{-rtau},\n\nfrac{partial ln P_{text{amm}}}{partial r} = -tau,\n\nSo the modified duration of the PT equals its time to expiry. For a given level of implied rate volatility, the PT price return volatility scales with tau and decays to zero at maturity. The risk carried by a PT position, and the buffer needed to liquidate it safely, are therefore functions of tau. A single fixed discount rate, liquidation bonus, or liquidation threshold is too loose far from maturity, where price uncertainty is largest, and too tight near maturity, where the position is close to riskless, and a wide buffer only locks up collateral. Parameters that move with tau track the risk that is present.\nHow Pendle prices a PT: the AMM, the order book, and the trading range\nPendle V2 holds liquidity in a single pool of PT and SY, where SY is the wrapped yield-bearing form of the underlying. The AMM prices PT against SY in implied rate space through a logit curve adapted from Notional Finance. With pool proportion p = texttt{totalPt}/(texttt{totalPt} + texttt{totalSy}) and mathrm{logit}(p) = ln(p/(1-p)), the pre-fee exchange rate in PT per SY and the PT price in SY per PT are\n\nE(p,tau) = frac{mathrm{logit}(p),tau}{texttt{scalarRoot}} + a(tau), qquad P_{text{amm}} = frac{1}{E},\n\nwith texttt{scalarRoot} a per market constant. On every trade the anchor a(tau) is rebuilt from the stored implied rate r_{text{last}} and the post-trade proportion p_{text{last}},\n\na(tau) = e^{r_{text{last}}tau} - frac{mathrm{logit}(p_{text{last}}),tau}{texttt{scalarRoot}},\n\nso the implied rate stays continuous as tau runs down between trades.\nAlongside the AMM, Pendle runs an onchain limit order book. A taker swap fills resting limit orders first, in the direction the implied rate is moving, before touching the AMM. A single swap can be split across the order book and the AMM to reduce price impact. A limit order deepens executable liquidity at one implied rate but does not change the pricing curve. The order book is optional, and the AMM is the structural price reference.\nThe AMM trades within a bounded range. The constant texttt{scalarRoot} sets the width of the tradeable implied rate range, with liquidity concentrated inside it, and the pool proportion is capped at texttt{MAX_MARKET_PROPORTION} = 0.96. Selling PT into the pool raises p and the implied rate and lowers the PT price; buying does the reverse. The implied rate is strictly increasing in p, so the two move together: the AMM’s lowest quotable price, equivalently its highest quotable implied rate, is reached exactly at the proportion cap, while on the other side, PT is not quoted above par.\nThis makes the proportion cap the single boundary that matters for collateral. Heavy PT selling drives p toward 0.96; at the cap, the AMM rejects any trade that would push p higher, the marginal price is pinned at the boundary value, and additional PT can only be absorbed by resting limit orders if any are present. The boundary price is finite and computable from the curve. Separately, as tau to 0 the proportion term in E scales with tau and shrinks, so near maturity the same proportion move produces a smaller price move, and the PT price range narrows.\nFor a liquidator unwinding PT collateral under stress, the worst price is the boundary value at the proportion cap. Resting limit orders cannot be assumed present in stress, so the collateral must be sized against that boundary price rather than a more favorable one.\nHigh-leverage borrowers need a stable oracle; the protocol needs a solvency buffer\nA borrower’s health factor on a PT position is\n\nmathrm{HF} = frac{(text{units of PT}),P_{text{oracle}}(tau),mathrm{LT}}{text{debt}},\n\nwhere P_{text{oracle}} is the oracle price of the collateral and mathrm{LT} the liquidation threshold, so the collateral valuation feeds the health factor directly. The market price P_{text{amm}} moves on every AMM trade, because r_{text{last}} is updated on every trade. An oracle that tracked the market price one for one would pass that trade-by-trade noise into the health factor, and a borrower close to the liquidation boundary could be liquidated on a transient swing rather than on a real fall in value. Borrowers who run PT positions at high leverage need a valuation that is smooth and predictable, so they can compute the distance to liquidation and rely on it.\nAt the tail, the protocol needs the opposite. For a liquidation to clear without leaving bad debt, the oracle value of the collateral must not exceed what a liquidator can realize when selling it, and there must be a buffer for the gap between the oracle price and the realized execution price under stress. A valuation that is only smooth is not enough; it must also stay defensive when the market moves against the position. These two requirements cannot both be met by one setting: a fast oracle is defensive but noisy, and a slow fixed oracle is stable but cannot be both defensive and efficient: set loose, it drifts above realizable value, set tight, it locks up collateral.\nA dynamic risk oracle delivers stability, predictability, and a defensive posture\nThe two requirements are reconciled by separating the central valuation, which is kept smooth, from the loss-absorbing parameters, which are stressed. The collateral is valued by a linear discount that pulls to par along a known line, moved only by a slow trigger with a cooldown and a cap on each downward step, so it is smooth and predictable for a borrower. The liquidation bonus is sized to the cost of unwinding the collateral at the edge of the trading range, and the liquidation threshold stays solvent at the worst price the AMM can quote, so both stay defensive when the market moves. The discount rate carries a ceiling, so the worst price the oracle can quote is tied to the worst price the AMM can quote on the same convention. Because each parameter depends on the time to maturity and the live pool, one rule provides a high-leverage borrower with a stable, predictable valuation and the protocol with a defensive buffer against bad debt.\nDynamic Discount Rate\nThis section specifies the discount rate, the parameter that sets the central valuation of the PT, and the rule that maintains it over the life of the position.\nDefinition and formulas\nThe oracle stores one number per market, d = texttt{discountRatePerYear}, and quotes the collateral at\n\nP_{text{oracle}}(tau) = max(1 - d,tau, 0),\n\nwhere tau is the time to maturity in years. Between updates d is fixed, so the quoted price is a straight line in tau that reaches par at maturity, as set out in the preceding section.\nThe rule keeps d aligned with the market by comparing the oracle price to the AMM price P_{text{amm}}(tau) = e^{-rtau} from the preceding section, with r the implied rate, and updating d only when the gap is large enough. Each update is smoothed, rate-limited by a cooldown, and capped on the downside.\nDeviation. The signed relative gap between the two prices is\n\nmathrm{dev}(tau) = frac{P_{text{oracle}}(tau) - P_{text{amm}}(tau)}{P_{text{oracle}}(tau)}.\n\nA positive deviation means the oracle prices the PT above the AMM, so the lender is exposed. A negative deviation means the oracle prices it below the AMM, so the borrower carries a wider discount and the lender is protected.\nTarget. When the rule updates d it targets the value that makes the oracle price equal the AMM price at the current tau. Setting 1 - d,tau = e^{-rtau} and solving for d gives\n\nd_{text{target}}(r, tau) = frac{1 - e^{-rtau}}{tau}.\n\nThis is the simple discount rate over horizon tau whose terminal price matches continuous compounding at rate r over the same horizon. It is well-defined for any PT price strictly between 0 and 1, which holds for every PT before maturity. Because the implied rate moves with every AMM trade, the rule uses a smoothed rate in place of the instantaneous rate r. The smoother is an exponential moving average of the implied rate, taking the last observation in each hour, with span s in hours:\n\nbar r_0 = r_0, qquad bar r_k = alpha, r_k + (1 - alpha), bar r_{k-1}, qquad alpha = frac{2}{s + 1}.\n\nThe target is then evaluated as d_{text{target}}(bar r, tau).\nUpdate rule. The rule steps forward by one hour at a time and fires only when both the deviation gate and the cooldown hold.\n\ntext{fire} iff |mathrm{dev}| ge texttt{THRESHOLD} text{ and } (text{time since last fire}) ge texttt{MIN_DELAY_HOURS}.\n\nOn a fire, the update splits into two arms. On the price down arm, where d_{text{target}} > d and the oracle price falls, the single step is capped. Since P_{text{oracle}} = 1 - d,tau, holding tau fixed at the firing instant gives |Delta P_{text{oracle}}| = tau,Delta d, so the cap on d is\n\nd leftarrow min!left(d_{text{target}}, d + frac{texttt{MAX_PRICE_DROP_BPS}/10000}{tau}right),\n\nwhich forces |Delta P_{text{oracle}}| le texttt{MAX_PRICE_DROP_BPS}/10000 on every downward fire. Combined with the cooldown, the oracle price cannot fall by more than texttt{MAX_PRICE_DROP_BPS} within a single cooldown window. On the price up arm, where d_{text{target}} < d and the oracle price rises, the update goes straight to the target with no cap,\n\nd leftarrow d_{text{target}}.\n\nThe two arms are not symmetric. From the health factor in the preceding section, a fall in the oracle price lowers every borrower’s health factor against this collateral, while a rise raises it. The downward move is therefore rate-limited and capped, so it cannot move faster than the bound, and the upward move, which only relaxes positions, is not throttled.\nInputs and outputs\nAt each step, the rule reads the implied rate r from the AMM, the time to maturity tau, the current stored amount d, and the time of the last fire. It outputs the updated d, from which the oracle quotes P_{text{oracle}}(tau) = max(1 - d,tau, 0).\nThe configuration parameters are:\n\n\n\n\nparameter\nrole\n\n\n\n\ntexttt{THRESHOLD}\nsymmetric gate on lvertmathrm{dev}rvert that must be exceeded for a fire\n\n\ntexttt{MIN_DELAY_HOURS}\ncooldown, the minimum time between two fires on one market\n\n\ntexttt{MAX_PRICE_DROP_BPS}\ncap on the single-step price fall on the down arm; the up arm is uncapped\n\n\ns\nspan of the exponential moving average on r, in hours\n\n\ntexttt{MAX_DISCOUNT_RATE_PER_YEAR}\nceiling on d, fixed per market at onboarding (see Onboarding parameters)\n\n\n\nThe cooldown texttt{MIN_DELAY_HOURS} rate limits fires and the smoothing span s sets the averaging window, so updates are infrequent and the rate fed to the target is smooth. The gate and the downward cap determine how closely the oracle tracks the AMM and how quickly it can fall; their trade-off is shown below.\nThreshold tradeoff\nThe gate sets how far the oracle may drift from the AMM before it updates. Running the rule across the full history of all sixteen markets and pooling all hours, with the downward cap held at 10 bps, the share of time the oracle sits above the AMM (overpriced, lender exposed) and below it (underpriced, lender protected), with the median deviation in each state, moves with the gate:\n\n\n\n\ntexttt{THRESHOLD}\ntime overpriced\ntime underpriced\nmedian over (bps)\nmedian under (bps)\n\n\n\n\n0.05%\n49.16%\n50.84%\n1.74\n−2.55\n\n\n0.10%\n45.35%\n54.65%\n2.62\n−3.74\n\n\n0.20%\n33.35%\n66.65%\n5.55\n−6.84\n\n\n0.30%\n30.41%\n69.59%\n7.02\n−8.62\n\n\n0.50%\n29.41%\n70.59%\n9.93\n−12.75\n\n\n\nAs the gate widens, the oracle spends less time above the AMM and more time below it, so a wider gate moves the rule toward the protected side. At the same time, the median gap in both states widens because a wider gap allows the price to drift further before it corrects. A tight gate holds the oracle close to the AMM with small deviations on both sides, at the cost of more frequent updates. A wide gate updates infrequently, providing the stability a high-leverage borrower needs at the cost of larger, more typical deviations and more time spent away from the AMM.\nThe downward cap governs only the down arm. A smaller cap lets overpricing accumulate over more days, since the oracle lags a sharp fall and stays above the AMM longer, while a larger cap closes the downward gap faster at the cost of a larger single-step price move.\nCase studies\nThree prices can be compared on the same hourly grid: the deployed Aave oracle P_{text{aave}} = 1 - d_{text{deployed}},tau, driven by the steward’s discount rate; the Pendle AMM price P_{text{amm}} = e^{-rtau}; and the proposed oracle P_{text{base}} = 1 - d_{text{mechanism}},tau, driven by the rule above. The mechanism targets the AMM rather than replicating the steward, and every deployed steward update moves the discount by exactly 1 percentage point, so the mechanism’s discount can sit up to about 1 percentage point away from a given deployed level.\n\nPT sUSDE 25SEP2025, down arm. The AMM discount rose over the life. The rule stepped the discount up in capped increments, firing the down arm four times, and ended at 9.94% against the deployed 9.69%. This is the rule tracking a rising AMM discount in bounded steps.\n\nPT USDe 27NOV2025, up arm. The AMM discount fell. The rule fired the arm once and refit straight to the target, ending at 7.94% against the deployed 7.51%. This is the uncapped upward refit, relaxing the discount in a single step.\n\nPT sUSDE 7MAY2026, near maturity. The steward cut the discount from 5.02% to 4.02%, but the rule did not fire, holding at 5.02%. With both prices close to par, the same rate gap yields a smaller |dev|, and the gate is not crossed. Because the price is 1 - d·τ, a discount gap Δd is only Δd·τ in price terms, here under twenty basis points and falling to zero at maturity.]\nOnboarding parameters\nTwo values are set per market at onboarding: the starting discount rate and the ceiling on the discount rate.\nThe starting texttt{discountRatePerYear} is the value the mechanism begins from and then maintains through the rule above.\nThe ceiling texttt{MAX_DISCOUNT_RATE_PER_YEAR} is immutable, set once in the adapter at listing and not changed afterward; the steward setter enforces d le d_{max}, so the discount is bounded above and the oracle price is bounded below by 1 - d_{max},tau. The ceiling is the simple discount that matches the AMM’s quote at the proportion cap texttt{MAX_MARKET_PROPORTION} = 0.96, the highest proportion the AMM allows, and so its lowest quotable price, taken to leading order in the time to maturity and at the implied rate fixed when the Pendle market was created. It reduces to a closed form in three Pendle market immutables,\n\nd^* = frac{ln 24}{texttt{scalarRoot}} + frac{ln(texttt{initialAnchor})}{texttt{yearsLeft}},\n\nwhere texttt{scalarRoot} and texttt{initialAnchor} come from the Pendle market and its creation event, and texttt{yearsLeft} is the original term length of the Pendle market, (text{expiry} - text{market creation}) in years. texttt{yearsLeft} is the full term fixed at market creation, distinct from the time to maturity at listing, the adapter deployment, and the current time. The resulting ceiling is specific to each market.\nDynamic Risk Parameters\nThis section specifies the three reserve risk parameters, the liquidation bonus, the liquidation threshold, and the loan-to-value ratio, and the rule that computes each from the time to maturity tau and the live pool. The discount rate from the preceding section sets the collateral’s central valuation; these parameters determine how much loss the reserve absorbs when a position is liquidated against that valuation.\nThroughout, P_{text{oracle}}(tau) = 1 - d,tau is the oracle price from the discount rate section, with d the live discount the mechanism maintains, and E(p,tau) with P_{text{amm}} = 1/E is the Pendle AMM rate from the AMM pricing section above. Where the rule needs the implied rate or the pool proportion, it consumes the same exponential moving average used for the discount rate, of span s on hourly observations: bar r is the smoothed implied rate and bar p the smoothed proportion.\nDefinition and formulas\nLiquidation bonus. The bonus is a floor plus a slope,\n\nmathrm{LB}(tau, D, U) = L_u^{text{net}}(D, U) + bigl[,mathrm{slope}(tau),bigr]_+ ,\n\nboth in percentage points, with [,cdot,]_+ the positive part. The floor L_u^{text{net}} is the slope-free cost of unwinding and depends only on the debt category D and the underlying U. The slope is the extra bonus a liquidator needs when the oracle prices the PT above the AMM’s fill price.\nA liquidator who repays D units of debt receives PT worth D(1 + mathrm{LB}) at the oracle price, that is D(1 + mathrm{LB})/P_{text{oracle}} units, and sells them into the AMM at P_{text{exec}}. Setting the proceeds equal to the debt repaid gives the break-even bonus\n\nmathrm{LB}^{text{BE}} = frac{P_{text{oracle}}}{P_{text{exec}}} - 1 ,\n\nWith the debt asset price canceled. The slope is this quantity evaluated at a reference endpoint on the AMM curve. A liquidator selling PT raises the pool proportion, so the endpoint is set as a fixed multiple of the smoothed proportion, clipped at the Pendle ceiling.\n\np^star = minbigl(k,bar p, 0.96bigr) ,\n\nand the execution price there is P_{text{exec}} = 1/E(p^star, tau). Writing the AMM rate at the endpoint with the anchor rebuilt from the smoothed state gives\n\nmathrm{slope}(tau) = bigl(1 - d,taubigr)left[,e^{bar r,tau} + frac{bigl(mathrm{logit}(p^star) - mathrm{logit}(bar p)bigr),tau}{texttt{scalarRoot}},right] - 1 .\n\nThis is P_{text{oracle}}(tau),E(p^star, tau) - 1. At maturity E(p^star, 0) = 1 and P_{text{oracle}}(0) = 1, so the slope is zero and the bonus reduces to the floor. The positive part is taken before the floor is added: when the oracle sits at or below the AMM execution price at the endpoint, the slope contributes nothing.\nLiquidation threshold. The threshold is the smaller of a governance cap and a solvency bound.\n\nmathrm{LT}(tau, D, U) = min!left(mathrm{LT}_{text{cap}}(D, U), frac{P_{text{amm}}^{text{stressed}}(tau)}{P_{text{oracle}}(tau),bigl(1 + mathrm{LB}(tau, D, U)bigr)}right) .\n\nThe cap mathrm{LT}_{text{cap}} is a fixed ceiling set at onboarding. The solvency bound sizes the threshold so the full collateral, valued at the worst price the AMM can quote, still covers the debt plus the bonus at oracle terms. The oracle price in the denominator uses the live discount d; the worst price in the numerator uses the discount ceiling.\nThe worst price is the AMM price at the proportion ceiling with the anchor at its most adverse admissible corner. The AMM rate increases in proportion, and the anchor increases in the stored rate and decreases in the stored proportion, so the lowest price sits at the proportion ceiling, with the anchor set at the lower proportion bound and the rate ceiling. The rate ceiling is fixed to the discount ceiling on the same convention, exp(r_{max},tau) = 1/(1 - d_{max},tau), where d_{max} = texttt{MAX_DISCOUNT_RATE_PER_YEAR}. Using mathrm{logit}(0.96) = ln 24 and mathrm{logit}(0.1) = -ln 9, the stressed anchor and price are\n\na_{text{stressed}}(tau) = frac{1}{1 - d_{max},tau} + frac{ln 9 cdot tau}{texttt{scalarRoot}}, qquad\nP_{text{amm}}^{text{stressed}}(tau) = frac{1}{dfrac{ln 216 cdot tau}{texttt{scalarRoot}} + dfrac{1}{1 - d_{max},tau}} ,\n\nwith ln 24 + ln 9 = ln 216. The domain d_{max},tau < 1 is exactly the domain on which the oracle price is positive, so the stressed price is defined wherever the oracle is.\nLoan-to-value. The loan-to-value ratio is the threshold less a fixed buffer b,\n\nmathrm{LTV}(tau, D, U) = mathrm{LT}(tau, D, U) - b .\n\nThe buffer is held constant across every reserve in scope.\nInputs and outputs\nEach evaluation reads the time to maturity tau, the smoothed proportion bar p, and the smoothed rate bar r from the AMM, the live discount d maintained by the discount rate mechanism, and the per market constant texttt{scalarRoot}. It reads four values fixed per market at onboarding: the discount ceiling d_{max}, the cap mathrm{LT}_{text{cap}}, the floor L_u^{text{net}}, and the endpoint multiplier k. It outputs the three parameters mathrm{LB}, mathrm{LT}, and mathrm{LTV}.\nThe split between live inputs and fixed inputs follows the split between the two requirements. The proportion and rate are smoothed so the parameters do not move on trade-by-trade noise, the same reason the discount rate is smoothed. The cap, floor, ceiling, and multiplier are fixed per market, so the defensive posture does not drift once the reserve is onboarded.\n\n\n\n\ninput\nsource\nrole\n\n\n\n\ntau\nmarket maturity and block time\nenters every parameter; the slope vanishes, and the stressed price reaches par as tau to 0\n\n\nbar p, bar r\nAMM, smoothed\nlive pool state feeding the slope\n\n\nd\ndiscount rate mechanism\noracle price P_{text{oracle}} = 1 - d,tau\n\n\ntexttt{scalarRoot}\nPendle market\nwidth of the AMM rate range\n\n\nd_{max}\nonboarding\nrate ceiling for the stressed price\n\n\nmathrm{LT}_{text{cap}}\nonboarding\nupper bound on the threshold\n\n\nL_u^{text{net}}\nonboarding\nslope-free part of the bonus\n\n\nk\nonboarding\nreference endpoint multiplier\n\n\n\nTradeoffs\nTwo choices set how conservative the parameters are: the endpoint multiplier k for the bonus and the stress corner for the threshold.\nThe multiplier k sets how far a liquidator is assumed to push the pool. A larger k moves the reference endpoint p^star further above the current proportion, which raises the AMM rate at the endpoint, lowers the execution price, and raises the slope and the bonus. A smaller k keeps the endpoint close to the current proportion and reduces the bonus. Once k,bar p reaches the ceiling, the endpoint pins at 0.96 and further increases in k have no effect. The bonus was evaluated across a range of multipliers and against fixed proportion ceiling alternatives, and the prediction is stable across the range.\nThe stress corner sets the worst price the threshold defends against. A lower proportion bound or a higher rate ceiling raises the stressed anchor, lowers the stressed price, and lowers the threshold, making the approach more conservative. The proportion ceiling 0.96 is the structural Pendle cap, and the lower bound is held at p_{min} = 0.1. The rate ceiling is not a free choice once the discount ceiling is set: it is pinned to d_{max} through exp(r_{max},tau) = 1/(1 - d_{max},tau), so the threshold stress and the oracle floor sit on one discount convention.\nCase studies\nThree series can be read over the life of a position: the deployed bonus mathrm{LB}_{text{aave}}, the proposed bonus mathrm{LB}_{text{PT}}, and the underlying floor L_u^{text{net}} it settles onto. The floor is flat, so the slope is the only moving part: the bonus is widest early, where the time to maturity is long, and the AMM execution wedge is widest, and decays onto the floor as maturity approaches.\n\nPT USDe 27NOV2025, low proportion. The smoothed proportion remained low, around 0.14, so the reference endpoint remained well below the ceiling, and the wedge it implied was narrow. The bonus was widest early in life and fell toward the floor through it. A calm, shallow pool keeps the endpoint modest, so the bonus tracks close to the floor.\n\nPT USDe 25SEP2025, high proportion. The smoothed proportion ranged from roughly 0.32 to 0.59, high enough that the reference endpoint remained at its ceiling for most of the position’s life. The wider endpoint widens the wedge, so at a given time to maturity, the slope is steeper and the bonus rides further above the floor, staying there longer before settling at maturity. A deep pool drives the endpoint to the ceiling, so the bonus carries its largest slope.\nAt maturity, the slope vanishes exactly: the execution rate and the oracle discount both return to par, so the bonus equals its floor at expiry regardless of the pool. The bonus a position carries is widest when it is youngest, where the price can still move, and narrows to the floor as the PT is pulled to par.\nThree series can be read the same way for the threshold: the deployed threshold mathrm{LT}_{text{aave}}, the proposed threshold mathrm{LT}_{text{PT}}, and the algebraic side mathrm{LT}_{text{alg}} it tracks until the governance cap takes over. The cap is flat, so the algebraic side is the only moving part, and it moves opposite to the bonus slope: the threshold is lowest early, where the worst case stress price sits deepest below par, and the bonus slope is widest, and rises onto the cap as maturity approaches.\n\nPT USDe 27NOV2025, low proportion. With the proportion near 0.14, the bonus slope in the denominator was small, so the algebraic side sat higher for any given time left. It reached the cap a little further from maturity than the high-proportion PT, and stayed pinned there through expiry.\n\nPT USDe 25SEP2025, high proportion. The larger slope pushed the algebraic side down, so it reached the cap a little closer to maturity than the low-proportion PT did.\nAt maturity, the stress price and the oracle both return to par, and the bonus collapses to its floor, so the algebraic side rises above the cap and the threshold pins to the cap regardless of the pool. The two sides bind on opposite ends of life: the algebraic side governs early, where the price can still move, and the cap governs late, once the PT is pulled to par.\nOnboarding parameters\nThree values are set per market at onboarding alongside the discount ceiling from the preceding section: the cap mathrm{LT}_{text{cap}}, the floor L_u^{text{net}}, and the endpoint multiplier k.\nThe cap mathrm{LT}_{text{cap}} is the ceiling in the threshold and is fixed at onboarding. A higher threshold lets a borrower hold more debt against the same collateral, so the cap fixes the maximum leverage the reserve will carry against this debt independent of the live pool: where the solvency bound is slack, the threshold still cannot exceed the ceiling. It operates as a backstop rather than the day-to-day constraint, since the solvency bound is the binding side at every backtested event.\nThe floor L_u^{text{net}} is the slope-free part of the bonus, the incentive a liquidator needs when the oracle and the AMM agree, and there is no price wedge for the slope to cover. It collects the flat costs of the unwind: the flash loan premium to source the debt repayment, the SY redemption to the underlying, and the conversion from the underlying to the debt asset. The first two are common across markets, so the floor varies by debt regime and underlying through the conversion, and is set per debt regime and underlying at onboarding.\nThe endpoint multiplier k is the assumed depth of a liquidator’s push on the pool; its value is fixed at onboarding, and the bonus prediction is stable across the tested range, so the choice is not sensitive. The discount ceiling d_{max} is set once per market in the adapter as described in the discount rate section and enters here only through the stressed price.\nLiquidators\nThe parameters are calibrated to a single model of how a liquidator unwinds PT collateral, and the methodology assumes the liquidator behaves exactly as described by that model.\nA liquidator repays debt and receives PT at the oracle price with the bonus added, then sells that PT into the Pendle AMM. Selling raises the pool proportion and lowers the price received. The bonus is sized to the break-even of this unwind at the reference endpoint p^star: the floor covers the cost when the oracle and the AMM agree, and the slope covers the wedge between the oracle valuation and the realized AMM price when the oracle is higher.\nThree assumptions fix the model. First, the unwind goes through the AMM and not the limit order book. The order book can deepen executable liquidity at a rate, but it cannot be assumed to be present under stress, so the collateral is sized against the AMM curve alone. Second, the liquidator is assumed to push the proportion to p^star = min(k,bar p, 0.96), a multiple of the smoothed proportion clipped at the ceiling. Third, for the threshold, the worst price is the AMM price at the proportion ceiling with the anchor at the adverse corner (p_{min}, r_{max}).\nThe threshold condition is a wind-down solvency condition. When the live pool satisfies the three conditions\n\nthe proportion stays at or above p_{min} = 0.1,\nthe proportion stays at or below 0.96,\nthe market implied rate stays at or below r_{max}, defined by exp(r_{max},tau) = 1/(1 - d_{max},tau), the chain\n\n\nmathrm{LT}cdot P_{text{oracle}}cdot(1 + mathrm{LB}) ;le; P_{text{amm}}^{text{stressed}} ;le; P_{text{amm}}^{text{true}}\n\nholds, with the left relation an equality whenever the solvency bound is the binding side of the threshold, which is the case throughout the backtest. The left side is the oracle value of debt plus bonus per unit of initial collateral, and the right side is the worst price the AMM could quote for liquidating it, so the full initial collateral, valued at the worst feasible price, covers the debt plus the bonus at oracle terms. This guarantees the position can be wound down without bad debt under the stated conditions. It does not guarantee a liquidator will choose to act: that requires the stricter condition P_{text{oracle}} le (1 + mathrm{LB}),P_{text{amm}}^{text{true}} on the live AMM price rather than the worst feasible one.\nNext Steps\n\nGather feedback from the community.\nIf consensus is reached on this ARFC, escalate this proposal to the Snapshot stage.\nIf the snapshot outcome is YAE, escalate this proposal to the AIP stage.\n\nDisclaimer\nThis proposal was prepared by LlamaRisk, a DeFi risk service provider for the Aave Protocol, funded in part by the Aave DAO. It was produced as part of LlamaRisk’s risk-management mandate to the DAO.\nThe information provided should not be construed as legal, financial, tax, or professional advice.\n 1 post - 1 participant\n Read full topic",
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"caption": "Cardano’s total value locked dropped close to 30% in June, sliding from $129 million to $92 million — a fall that closely tracks ADA’s own price decline of 27% over the same stretch. Yet one platform inside the ecosystem is pushing back hard against the idea that the network is finished. DexHunter, a Cardano-based DEX aggregator, took to X to argue that the blockchain is more alive than ever, citing a sharp spike in trading activity as proof that user engagement remains strong despite ADA’s price weakness. Related Reading: Security Milestone: XRP Lending Protocol Completes Military-Grade Assessment A Surge, Then A Pullback Daily DEX trading volume on Cardano shot up from roughly 6 million ADA to 25 million ADA across four days, one of the steepest volume increases in recent months. DexHunter attributed that spike to heavy trading in tokens including NIGHT, STRIKE, and SNEK, as well as stablecoins such as USDCx. Volume has since retreated to around 7.45 million ADA, down 11% in the most recent 24-hour period. They say: Cardano is dead We say: Cardano is more alive than ever$STRIKE$ASCEND$ATLAS$SURF$SURGE The ecosystem is exploding🤯 pic.twitter.com/aCp8D80jAv — DexHunter 🏹 (@DexHunterIO) June 6, 2026 Alongside the volume data, DexHunter shared charts tracking the performance of several Cardano-native tokens. ATLAS rose 18% in a single day. STRIKE gained 3%. ASCEND added 1.20%. SURF was the exception, falling 2.67% during the same window. Based on that activity, DexHunter declared the ecosystem is exploding. Broader Headwinds Weigh On The Network The platform’s upbeat take comes against a backdrop of mounting pressure on Cardano. ADA hit a multi-year low of $0.14 earlier this year, and a string of setbacks has fed speculation about the network’s long-term prospects. Analytics platform TapTools shut down. A major ecosystem contributor exited after declaring bankruptcy. Input Output CEO Charles Hoskinson stepped back from public engagement for a period, and governance disputes have continued to draw criticism from within the community. Against all of that, DexHunter maintains the underlying activity tells a different story — one of continued user participation even as ADA’s market performance has disappointed. Related Reading: A 400 Billion Shiba Inu Surprise: Whale Wallet Springs Back To Life Signs Of Life In A Difficult Market ADA was trading at around $0.16 at the time of writing, still deep in the red compared to levels seen earlier this year. Whether the recent volume spike reflects a genuine shift in momentum or a short-term burst driven by a handful of tokens remains an open question. What the data does show is that trading activity on Cardano’s decentralized exchange layer is still moving, even if the numbers have pulled back from their recent peak. Featured image from Wallpaper Flare, chart from TradingView",
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"caption": "SBI Shinsei Bank will let depositors earn bitcoin, ether, or XRP vouchers worth 20% of their interest payments starting June 10, 2026, in what the Nikkei reports as one of the more direct integrations of crypto rewards into a traditional Japanese bank deposit product. Nikkei detailed that the three-month pilot applies to ordinary savings accounts […]",
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"caption": "Zcash jumped 11.3% to $478, marking an approximate 80% recovery since its June 5 plunge. The rally pushed its market capitalization back above $8 billion and wiped out $11.5 million in short positions. The Orchard Vulnerability Privacy coin Zcash (ZEC) surged on Tuesday, jumping 11.3% to $478 as it maintained a steady recovery that began […]",
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